Oregon Football Week 1 Preview vs. Fresno State: Offense

Can the Ducks offense get off to a hot start in Week 1 against Fresno State?

We are less than eight weeks away from the 2021 Oregon football season. The two-time reigning Pac-12 champions will square off with the Fresno State Bulldogs of the Mountain West Conference on Sept. 4 at Autzen Stadium, looking to win their eighth straight against the Bulldogs.

Oregon opens the 2021 season as the favorites to win the Pac-12 title for the third consecutive year, and a big reason why is because the Ducks bring back most of their offensive starters from last season. They will look to improve on a 4-3 season last year that saw the Ducks fall to Iowa State in the Fiesta Bowl.

Fresno State went 3-3 last season in a season ravaged by the pandemic. The Bulldogs endured a three-week hiatus after a 3-1 start but lost their final two games to fall out of bowl contention.

Oregon Offensive Outlook

The offensive identity fluctuated several times throughout the season in Joe Moorhead's first year as the Ducks' offensive coordinator. Running the ball was a breeze in the first two games, as the Ducks ran wild for 269 yards in each of their wins against Stanford and Washington State.

The run game fell off significantly after that, as the Ducks only rushed for 125.8 yards per game the rest of the season, including a season-low 86 yards on the ground in the Fiesta Bowl.

Despite having a talented group of skill-position players, Tyler Shough struggled at times and the passing attack wasn't quite as explosive as many believed it would be in Moorhead's first year. The Ducks averaged 6.8 yards per play, good for 12th in the nation, but they turned the ball over 16 times on 85 offensive drives (18.8%).

Now, Moorhead's offense is completely installed, and the team has a full spring under its belt. Most of the skill-position talent from last season returns, notably Johnny Johnson III, CJ Verdell, Travis Dye, and Devon Williams.

Spencer Webb and Patrick Herbert will return from injuries, and the Ducks also bring in an elite group of freshmen to help out quarterback Anthony Brown. Troy Franklin, Dont'e Thornton, Terrance Ferguson, and Isaiah Brevard are just a few names to remember from the Ducks' historic 2021 recruiting class.

Up front, the Ducks return their entire six-man rotation. The coaching staff and players constantly praised the improvement of the offensive line throughout spring camp, including linebacker Mase Funa, who said that the group looked "dominant."

Fresno State Defensive Outlook

Perhaps the Bulldogs' biggest strength last season was their ability to sack the opposing quarterback, ranking third in the county in sacks per game last year at 4.17. The Bulldogs return 76.0% of their sack production from a season ago, but the defense struggled to stop the run and was a big reason for their losses to take them out of bowl contention at the end of the season.

Overall, however, the defense struggled when it didn't bring down the quarterback, especially late in the season. The Bulldogs gave up 212.3 rushing yards per game and 430.0 total yards per game.

The Bulldogs will certainly have to improve defensively to contend this season, especially when they face tough opponents like Oregon, UCLA, Boise State, and San Jose State. They return most of their defensive starters, including sack leaders Kwami Jones and Kevin Atkins, as well as up-and-coming corners Bralyn Lux and Wylan Free.

Key Players

Oregon:

1. QB Anthony Brown - The quarterback position for the Ducks is arguably their biggest question mark going into the season. Brown is an experienced starter having spent three years as the starter at Boston College, but he got some run with the starters in the Ducks' final two games last season. He only threw 23 passes in those games, but he has an opportunity to have a big year with all of the weapons he's armed with.
2. WR Devon Williams - The USC transfer was a big play machine for the Ducks last season, especially against UCLA and Oregon State when he put up 100-yard performances in each game. He has a chance to become WR1 this season.
3. RB Travis Dye - Good things happen when the Ducks feed Dye. He recorded 722 yards on 76 total touches, including punt returns, meaning that he gained 9.5 yards per touch on average last season.

Fresno State

1. DE David Perales - A second-team All-Mountain West selection, Perales led the Bulldogs with four forced fumbles and finished second in tackles (27) and sacks (4.0). He is going to be tough for the Ducks' offensive tackles to block coming off the edge.
2. DT Kevin Atkins - At 310 pounds, Atkins is a massive lineman who is surprisingly light on his feet when getting after the quarterback. He has five sacks in each of his last two seasons.
3. CB Bralyn Lux - The walk-on freshman started every game for the Bulldogs last season and led the team in total tackles (30). He also recorded an interception, four passes defended, a forced fumble, and a fumble recovery.

What the Oregon Offense Must Do to Win

1. Protect Anthony Brown - The Fresno State defense made life difficult for opposing quarterbacks last season, so keeping Brown upright in the pocket should be one of the top priorities for the Ducks. The Ducks return their entire starting offensive line, and the unit had an excellent spring.
2. Establish the run - Fresno State had one of the worst defenses when it came to stopping the run, and Oregon had trouble running the ball for much of the season. If Oregon can get some explosive runs early in the game, it will take some pressure off of Brown and keep the defense on its heels.
3. Take care of the football - The Ducks lost 10 fumbles last season and had one of the worst turnover margins in the country at -9. A full spring and fall camp schedule should reduce turnovers, but the Ducks offensive execution should be sharp one week out from facing Ohio State's defense.

What Fresno State Must Do to Pull Off the Upset

1. Force Anthony Brown to make plays from the pocket - There isn't a lot of tape on Brown as the Ducks’ signal-caller, and the Ducks have some dynamic running backs that can hurt a defense. The Bulldogs must slow down the run game and force Brown to throw the ball down the field within the pocket, as he is dangerous when he's on the move.
2. Don't let the Ducks’ offense get comfortable - In each of the Bulldogs' final two games last season, the defense gave up 24 and 21 first-half points to Nevada and New Mexico, respectively. If the Bulldogs can't string together stops or force turnovers, it could be a long day for them.
3. Stop the Ducks on third down - Fresno State had one of the worst third down defenses in the country last year, allowing opposing offenses to convert on third down 48% of the time. The Ducks converted 43.2% of their third downs last year, but the offensive execution should be much improved this year.

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