Predicting Each Game on Oregon Ducks’ 2024 Football Schedule

The 2024 college football season is just days away. Predicting each game on the Oregon Ducks 2024 football schedule.

Jul 25, 2024; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach ??Dan Lanning speaks to the media during the Big 10 football media day at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports / Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports

We are now just days away from the start of the 2024 football season for the Oregon Ducks. By almost any form of measurement the Ducks look to have an outstanding year, perhaps one of the best in program history.

Oregon coach Dan Lanning has assembled an experienced coaching staff, built one of the best recruiting operations in college football—in both high school stars and transfer portal acquisitions—with talent on both sides of the line of scrimmage that rivals that of any top 25 teams in the country. All that remains now is for Oregon to put this all together and dominate on the football field in their first season in the Big Ten conference.

Since no games have been played to date, all we can do is speculate on how the Ducks will fare. To that end, we will use ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) to assign a “win percentage” for every game on Oregon’s schedule. Note that FPI is not a playoff predictor, and it is not designed to identify the teams that will earn a berth in the College Football Playoffs.

Without question the FPI calculations can be rather complex and ever changing, but boils down to a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams component. Without actual data since we are still in preseason mode, the individual pieces are made up entirely of information from previous seasons, such as returning starters, past performance, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure. That information allows FPI to make predictions that includes the strength of a team’s opponents beginning in the first game of the season.

In short, ESPN looked at Oregon’s 2024 schedule and predicted what percent chance the Ducks have to win each game. Keep in mind that this is an ongoing process and the percentages can and will change.

Week 1 – Oregon Hosts Idaho Vandals on August 31

Oregon Percent Chance to Win Per FPI:  99.0

Dec 2, 2023; Moscow, ID, USA; Idaho Vandals place kicker Ricardo Chavez (1) makes a field in OT to beat the Southern Illinois Salukis at Kibble Dome. Idaho won 20-17 in OT. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports / James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

Idaho is a member of the Big Sky Conference and has fared well over the past couple of seasons. The Vandals rank No. 7 in the preseason HERO Sport’s Top 25 FCS teams. While Idaho should have a good season, this matchup is all Oregon.

Week 2 – Boise State Broncos at Oregon on September 7

Oregon Percent Chance to Win Per FPI:  92.7

Boise State is considered a College Football Playoff-caliber team from the Group of Five. The Broncos, a member of the Mountain West Conference (MWC), are an early favorite to win the MWC championship with an eye on the CFPs. Despite the talent and lofty goals, Boise State does not contain the firepower to hang with the Ducks.

Week 3 – The Ducks and Oregon State Continue Their Rivalry In Corvallis on September 14

Oregon Percent Chance to Win Per FPI:  87.0

There was some doubt whether this long-standing rivalry game would be played in 2024 given Oregon’s move to the Big Ten Conference and Oregon State’s status in limbo as a member of the Pac-2 with an uncertain future. Due to the questions regarding the Beavers’ future, there was a mass exodus of talent through the transfer portal as well as former coach Jonathan Smith leaving for Michigan State. The changes to Oregon State’s football program are significant and no one knows what the on-the-field product will look like this year. While rivalry games can be unpredictable, 2024 is not one of those. This is a clear-cut win for the Ducks.

Nov 24, 2023; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Bo Nix (10) is congratulated by Oregon State Beavers head coach Jonathan Smith after a game at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports / Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

Week 5 – Oregon At UCLA on September 28

Oregon Percent Chance to Win Per FPI:  87.9

This is Oregon’s first game as a member of the Big Ten although the team on the other side of the field is a familiar opponent, the UCLA Bruins. To say the Bruins had changes in the off season is wildly understated. The Bruins head into the 2024 season with new head coach, DeShaun Foster, offensive coordinator, Eric Bieniemy, and defensive coordinator, Ikaika Malloe. UCLA lost multiple players on both sides of the ball and play a formidable schedule. Look for the Bruins to struggle this season, specifically when the Ducks come to town.

Week 6 – The Ducks Host Michigan State at Autzen Stadium on October 4

Oregon Percent Chance to Win Per FPI:  Not Available

As of this writing, there is no prediction for this game. This could be a technical glitch or it could be “off the board” due to what appears to be a very lopsided contest as the Spartans are rated near the bottom of Big Ten FPI rankings at 17. In any event, former Oregon State coach, Jonathan Smith, brings his team to Eugene with many questions to be answered. He brought some talent with him from Oregon State including quarterback Aiden Chiles. While he is projected as the starter as a dual-threat athlete, there simply isn’t enough talent to stay close to the Ducks.

Week 7 – The Ducks Welcome Ohio State to Eugene on October 12

Oregon Percent Chance to Win Per FPI:  65.5

Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Emeka Egbuka (12) is tackled by Oregon Ducks safety Verone McKinley III (23) and Oregon Ducks cornerback DJ James (0) on a punt return during Saturday's NCAA Division I football game at Ohio Stadium in Columbus on September 11, 2021. Osu21ore Bjp 513 / Barbara J. Perenic/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK

Many are touting this contest as perhaps the best game in college football this year. The Buckeyes are rated No. 2 in many pre-season polls while the Ducks are No. 3. Both teams are loaded with talent and this promises to be an epic battle. Ohio State coach Ryan Day hired former Oregon and UCLA coach, Chip Kelly, to run the offense in Columbus. The Ducks are looking to start a rivalry with the best teams in the Big Ten and what better way to do so than a big win over Ohio State. This is likely to be a close game, one the Ducks can grab at home.

Week 8 – Oregon Travels to West Lafayette For a Game with Purdue on October 18

Oregon Percent Chance to Win Per FPI:  Not Available

This is another game the Ducks should win easily despite it being an away game. Purdue’s glory years are mostly behind them. Coach Ryan Walters is in his second season and is tasked with a significant rebuild of the Boilermakers. They are ranked No. 18 in the Big Ten FPI, reflecting the work ahead for Walters. This game is likely more than a percent chance of 90 to win for Oregon.

Week 9 – Illinois Fighting Illini Face The Ducks in Eugene on October 26

Oregon Percent Chance to Win Per FPI:  95.5

Again, this is another game that is not likely to test the Ducks. If there is any concern, it would be about the schedule. Oregon is slated to play Michigan the following week in the Big House, and it is possible that the Ducks will overlook this game in anticipation of a trip to Ann Arbor to play the defending national champion Wolverines. However, coach Lanning is not likely to allow that to happen. He has a talented team and he challenges them on a regular basis to get better. There isn’t much of a case to be made that Oregon overlooks this game.

Week 10 – Oregon Travels to Ann Arbor For a Date with Michigan

Oregon Percent Chance to Win Per FPI:  65.5

 Michigan is coming off an undefeated 2023 season and a national championship. The question now is whether they can repeat. Consider that the Wolverines’ head coach Jim Harbaugh left the team for another stint in the NFL, this time with the Los Angeles Chargers. Michigan promoted offensive coordinator Sherron Moore to head coach who has the unenviable position of trying to repeat the success of last year. On the positive side, he will have one of the best defenses in the country. On the other hand, there are questions on the offensive side of the ball. This will no doubt be a tough battle in a loud environment. A win here for the Ducks would go a long way toward their goal of a Big Ten championship and a berth in the College Football Playoffs.

Week 11 – Oregon Versus Maryland Terrapins at Autzen Stadium on November 9

Oregon Percent Chance to Win Per FPI:  92.7

This is a game that has the potential to be a trap game for the Ducks. Just as there is concern about Oregon looking past Illinois to play Michigan, a possibility exists of a letdown the week after playing Michigan. Again, coach Lanning will work hard to make sure his Ducks will remain focused on the next challenge. From a talent standpoint, Maryland has some big holes to fill including the quarterback position. One strength of the Terrapins is their defense, especially a very experienced secondary. However, all of this won’t likely matter as the Ducks cruise to a win.

Week 12 – Wisconsin Hosts Oregon at Camp Randall Stadium on November 16

Oregon Percent Chance to Win Per FPI:  82.7

These two teams have played some very entertaining games over the years. While each has won three and lost three, Oregon fans would point to two of those wins as coming in the Rose Bowl in 2012 and 2020. The Badgers don’t have a notable win in the series, but they do boast a tough defense and fans at Camp Randall stadium that some consider the loudest in college football.

Second year coach, Luke Fickell, will be challenged to meet some lofty expectations and will have to do it with a new quarterback, transfer portal signee from Miami, Tyler Van Dyke. Wisconsin is typically a strong team late in the season and if Fickell and Van Dyke execute this could be a close game, but one the Ducks should win.

Week 14 – Washington Huskies Face Oregon in Eugene on November 30

Oregon Percent Chance to Win Per FPI:  89.8

These two teams have played 116 games with the Huskies winning 63, Oregon winning 48 with five ties. All that history aside, when they meet in November both teams will remember two games played last year. Washington won both games, the first in the regular season and the second in the Pac-12 conference championship. Both were close games with some questionable calls by both teams that impacted the outcome. Suffice to say the game this year, while in the Big Ten, is a revenge game for the Ducks. Coach Lanning has never beaten Washington and would be thrilled to break that streak in this game.

Jul 25, 2024; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Washington Huskies head coach Jedd Fisch speaks to the media during the Big 10 football media day at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports / Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports

Given the changes at Washington, including a new head coach, Jedd Fisch, and only one returning starter, this game at Autzen stadium sets up well for the Ducks. Look for a close, exciting game to wind up the regular season.

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