Predicting Win Totals for Big Ten Conference

The Oregon Ducks join the Big Ten conference this season. How many games will the top Big Ten teams win?

Ohio State coach Ryan Day, Oregon Ducks Coach Dan Lanning /

EUGENE - With rosters settled across college football, fans finally have a grasp on what their teams will look like come fall. This also means prop betting season has opened, as roster clarity allows prospective bettors to make more informed predictions for each team’s season.

Today I’ll project win totals for the best Big Ten Conference teams, including the Oregon Ducks, and decide on either an over or an under bet for their season-long win totals, odds from FanDuel.

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning talks to wide receiver Traeshon Holden during spring camp for the Oregon Ducks Thursday, March 14, 2024. / Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA

Oregon Ducks - O/U 10.5 wins

This seems like a fair line to me. Oregon faces a few matchups that will be extremely challenging, such as Ohio State and road games against Michigan and Wisconsin but this line allows for a loss. Unfortunately that’s all it allows for. Despite picking the Ducks to win 11 games, I think the margin for error on this bet would be very small so I’m probably not touching it.

Record prediction: 11-1

The bet: Under 10.5 wins

Ohio State Buckeyes - O/U 10.5 wins

Aside from the October 12th matchup against Oregon, there aren’t a lot of losable games on Ohio State’s schedule. A road trip to Penn State figures to be their second-hardest game but the Buckeyes have had Penn State’s number lately. I’m once again tempted not to touch this high of a total.

Record prediction: 11-1

The bet: Over 10.5 wins

Michigan Wolverines - O/U 9.5 wins

I expect significant regression from Michigan in 2024 but this line allows for some wiggle room. Unfortunately for the Wolverines, they drew a nightmare schedule that includes matchups against Texas, Washington, Oregon, and Ohio State. It’s hard for me to imagine them winning more than two of these matchups, and there’s a lot of unknown with Michigan this season.

Record prediction: 9-3

The bet: Under 9.5 wins

Penn State Nittany Lions - O/U 9.5 wins

Coach James Franklin has built the Penn State roster to win this year, with a plethora of returning talent and continuity on both sides of the ball. The Nittany Lions dodged the best Big Ten teams except Ohio State and face an easy out-of-conference schedule, so there’s a great opportunity for them to hit double-digit wins this year.

Record prediction: 10-2

The bet: Over 9.5 wins

USC Trojans - O/U 7.5 wins

The out-of-conference slate is what really does USC in this year. Facing matchups against LSU and Notre Dame plus the typical Big Ten slate gives USC many chances to lose. They’ll be without Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Caleb Williams this year and the defensive roster hasn’t exactly grown by leaps and bounds.

Record prediction: 6-6

The bet: Under 7.5 wins

Nebraska Cornhuskers - O/U 7.5 wins

Nebraska carries a lot of momentum into year two of coach Matt Rhule’s tenure, having recruited and utilized the transfer portal at a high level in the last two cycles. A lot of Nebraska’s season rests on the shoulders of true freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola, the number one player at his position in the 2024 cycle. If he’s as advertised, expect the Cornhuskers to make noise this year with the help of an extremely generous schedule.

Record prediction: 9-3

The bet: Over 7.5 wins

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Odds update periodically and are subject to change.

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