The Huskies will Need to Pound the Rock in Order to Upset Oregon

Washington's pair of talented running backs will need to produce big numbers on Saturday, but Oregon's struggles stopping the run on the road may be just the opening they need.

Entering Saturday’s ranked matchup against Oregon, the Huskies' hopes for an upset seemingly rests on the right shoulder of quarterback Jacob Eason. He has thrown for just under 250 yards per game, and has 13 passing TDs through seven games. Eason grew up a Duck fan, so expect him to be fired up for a matchup with Oregon this weekend. To keep pace with Oregon’s offense, he will certainly need to be on top of his game, but more important to the outcome may be Washington’s rushing attack.

Through seven games, the Huskies rank third in the Pac-12 and 52nd nationally with 178.7 rushing yards per game. Running backs Salvon Ahmed and Sean Mcgrew combined for just over 200 yards rushing on 36 total carries, and their potential success represents the best hope for an upset on Saturday. However, the Ducks have been impressive at stopping the run so far this year, ranking third in the Pac-12 and 23rd nationally while allowing an average of 107.5 rush yards per game. Still, in their three road games, they give up on average 160 rushing yards. This small sample size may be an anomaly, but could also point to the advantage gained by the energy of the home Autzen crowd for the front seven of Oregon to smother opposing run games.

One factor that would give Washington’s run game a boost is the potential return of All-Pac-12 center Nick Harris. Harris missed last week’s game against Arizona, and his return would be a huge boost against Oregon’s interior defensive line. Right guard Jaxson Kirkland is also questionable after sitting out against Arizona with a minor injury. Neither player’s status is likely to become clear until close to kickoff, but the Ducks are preparing as though Harris and Kirkland both will play. If both ultimately sit out, it would be a blow to their hopes of creating running lanes against Oregon’s front seven. On the Ducks side, the injury report is all positive this week, outside of Jacob Breeland’s season-ending injury, as neither Troy Dye or Jevon Holland will be sidelined by the injuries they picked up against Colorado. Washington won’t be getting any hometown discounts this week, they will need to scrap and fight for every yard.

So how exactly can the Huskies have success on the ground against this powerful Oregon defense? The key may be Mcgrew, the unheralded backup. Despite receiving about half as many carries as his starting counterpart Ahmed last week, Mcgrew put up more rushing yards and averaged twice as many yards per carry. Ahmed was the beneficiary of more red-zone work, finishing with three rushing TDs, but it was Mcgrew who made numerous big plays to spark the Huskies offense throughout the game. He looked best on outside zone runs, beating the linebackers and defensive ends to the edge, cutting upfield and making a player miss in the open field. With the strength and power that the Ducks possess all along the defensive front, it would make sense that a quicker change of pace type back such as Mcgrew would be the one more capable of having success. Ahmed will certainly be the workhorse and will be relied upon to punch in any goal-line opportunities, but Mcgrew’s ability to produce a few big plays on the ground cannot be overlooked.

While Eason gets much of the credit for Washington’s successes (and occasional struggles) this year, the ground game is an important factor as well. Going up against an extremely talented defense that has held opponents to low point totals all year, Washington’s ability to grind out tough yards and pop the occasional big play, without having to air it out, will be crucial to their upset bid. Keep an eye on the fleet-footed Mcgrew this weekend, and watch for Washington to get him in space on outside zone runs and toss sweep plays. Even if he only gets 10-12 touches this week, he could be an unheralded difference-maker. Ahmed’s ability between the tackles will also be an important factor, and he is perhaps the best individual bet for a TD amongst any of the Huskies.

Will Oregon’s powerful run defense be able to step up on the road? Or will their rushing defense struggles on the road allow an opening for Ahmed and Mcgrew to lead the upset bid? This should be an exciting matchup to watch on Saturday.