What the Florida State Upset Could Mean for Oregon Ducks Football

In the first game of the 2024 college football season, Georgia Tech upset ACC favorite Florida State. The game was played in Dublin, Ireland, and it is possible the Seminoles' loss could prove to be beneficial to the Oregon Ducks when it comes time to select the 12 top-rated teams for the College Football Playoff.

Aug 24, 2024; Dublin, IRL; Florida State University's DJ Uiagalelei looks to hand off the ball against Georgia Tech at Aviva Stadium. / Tom Maher/INPHO via USA TODAY Sports

Florida State and Georgia Tech kicked off the 2024 college football season with a game at Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland, Saturday. Aidan Birr hit a 44-yard field goal in the waning seconds of the Aer Lingus College Football Classic to give the Yellow Jackets an 24-21 upset win over No. 10 Florida State.

For Ducks’ fans, how can this game, played over 4,700 miles away, possibly have any impact on Oregon’s season and playoff hopes?

Aug 24, 2024; Dublin, IRL; Zach Pyron of Georgia Tech celebrates scoring a touch down against Florida State at Aviva Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tom Maher/INPHO via USA TODAY Sports / Tom Maher/INPHO via USA TODAY Sports

The Ducks have made it clear they will contend for a Big Ten championship and a berth in the expanded College Football Playoff. Should Oregon accomplish the first goal, they will be one of the top four seeded teams and receive a first-round bye. Seven teams will make the CFP without winning their league, but they won't get a bye and will have a longer route to a title game appearance. This is where Florida State’s loss could benefit Oregon.

The Seminoles came into this game as a prohibitive favorite. For example, Nick Saban, former Alabama head coach and current ESPN GameDay panel member, believes they will repeat as ACC Conference champions. This loss, while disheartening, does not keep the Seminoles out of the playoffs, either as a champion or an at-large berth. It could, however, negatively impact Florida State's seeding, which could improve Oregon’s spot.

For background purposes, note that the College Football Playoff Committee will consider the following for seeding purposes:

• Championships won
• Strength of schedule (SOS)
• Head-to-head competition
• Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incentivizing margin of victory)
• Other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that might have affected a team's performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance

For the sake of the argument, assume that Georgia Tech’s win was a fluke. They have no other signature victories, they end up in the middle to lower-end of ACC standings and they are not invited to a bowl game. Also assume that Oregon and Florida State are not in the top 5 ranked teams and they have the same win/loss records. Furthermore, an Oregon loss was to a highly ranked team and an away game.

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning calls out directions during practice with the Oregon Ducks Wednesday Aug. 21, 2024 at the Hatfield-Dowlin Complex in Eugene, Ore. / Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK

In this hypothetical scenario, with all but strength of schedule criteria equal, Oregon would likely get the higher seed due to Florida State’s loss to Georgia Tech. There is yet another scenario that would benefit the Ducks.

In staying with the Seminoles, let’s say they reach the ACC championship game as the top seed while the second school is ranked lower than Florida State. Prior to the game, the Ducks and Seminoles are fairly even in all criteria, but Florida State loses the title game. Assuming no other changes including a late season loss by Oregon, the Ducks are no longer competing with an equally matched team for a seed in the playoffs. Now, the comparison is against a lower ranked team overall and Oregon is awarded the higher seed.

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning during practice with the Oregon Ducks Wednesday Aug. 21, 2024 at the Hatfield-Dowlin Complex in Eugene, Ore. / Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK

Again, this is all hypothetical and over-simplifies the work of the College Football Playoff committee to find the 12 best football teams in the country. The take-away, however, is that strength of schedule is still an essential part of the selection process even though the number of teams goes from four to 12. Ducks’ fans who express concern about Oregon’s strength of schedule ranking would be well served by remembering that a win over a team with a higher SOS actually benefits Oregon’s reputation and possible playoff seeding.

There is no way to know exactly how this process will play out over time. In theory, the only difference is the number of teams in the playoffs. Perhaps the only thing we can know with any degree of certainty is that the teams ranked 13, 14, 15, etc. will believe they should have been included and a fix is in order.

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