How Far Oregon Ducks Quarterback Dillon Gabriel’s Heisman Trophy Odds Have Dropped

There were quite a bit of mistakes made by Oregon Duck Football starting quarterback Dillon Gabriel during the Ducks’ game against the Boise State Broncos, but how will that affect his Heisman odds?

Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel, right, celebrates a first quarter touchdown against Boise State at Autzen Stadium in Eugene Sept. 7, 2024. / Chris Pietsch/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK

Ducks fans, this might be a long season. No Oregon Duck Football athlete is going to feel the length of this season more than quarterback Dillon Gabriel. Last night in their game against Boise State where the Ducks won 37-34, Gabriel was sacked a jaw-dropping four times, which is the same amount of times he was sacked against Idaho just last week.

It was noticeable that a few of these sacks could be attributed to Gabriel not reading the defense. Sure, the starting quarterback was as accurate as he was in the previous game, throwing 18-21 (86% completion rate) for 243 yards and two touchdowns, but just look at Gabriel’s rushing statistics and you’ll see where the quarterback begins to erode.

Gabriel put up -15 yards for rushing, with -1.4 yards per his 11 attempts on average. After several questions entering the week as to why Gabriel was choosing not to rush, this performance vs. Boise State spelled out exactly why he wasn’t running against Idaho.

Sep 7, 2024; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel (8) and quarterback Ryder Hayes (19) walk off the field after a game against the Boise State Broncos at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images / Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

So, how does this mixed performance affect Gabriel’s Heisman odds? Going into the season, Gabriel was the leading favorite for the trophy. With +700 odds, he was far and away from his competition. Last week, Gabriel was +850 in a three way tie with Cam Ward of Miami and Jaxson Dart of Ole Miss.

As of this morning, Gabriel’s odds for the Heisman have dropped to +1200 on FanDuel according to Vegas Insider. Gabriel was surpassed in odds by Dart, Ward, Georgia’s Carson Beck, and Texas Longhorn Quinn Ewers. Ewers leads the pack with +500.

As of Sept. 8 on FanDuel, Oregon is favored for their next game against the Oregon State Beavers by -690 (Oregon State is +480). The Ducks are currently +1100 to win the National Championship, which is a dramatic drop from the +700 odds last week that had the Ducks in top three contention with Texas and Georgia. Right now for National Championship betting, Georgia is in first at +270, Ohio State Buckeyes are +350 in second, and Texas is +550 in third. Oregon is currently tied with Alabama on Championship odds.

Sep 7, 2024; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel (8) celebrates after scoring a touchdown during the first half against the Boise State Broncos at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images / Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

The biggest concern currently for Gabriel is simply how much damage he’s able to take with the amount of contact he’s facing snap after snap. In the third quarter, Gabriel received a late hit that was later called targeting on Boise State’s Alexander Teubner and was slow to get up. One also has to consider the finger injury Gabriel suffered in the game vs. Idaho that Gabriel claimed was fine, but how many close contact situations can Gabriel take on before he’s injured?

Given the persistent problems with the offensive line and Gabriel’s blindness to pass protection during the Boise State game, it might be a valid concern to wonder if Gabriel will stay healthy the entire season.

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