Will Oregon Ducks Quarterback Dillon Gabriel Boom Or Bust?

The Oregon Ducks head into the 2024 season with a new quarterback under center. Dillon Gabriel, a transfer portal recruit, brings a wealth of talent to Oregon. However, until the season starts, whether he can fill the shoes of Bo Nix and lead the Ducks to the playoffs remain to be seen. Will he be a boom or a bust?

Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel throws the ball during the Oregon Ducks’ Spring Game Saturday, April 27. 2024 at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore. / Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA

Oregon Ducks’ fans have had many reasons to celebrate the impressive 2024 transfer portal class that coach Dan Lanning put together. This group ranked No. 2 in the nation and the best in the Big Ten Conference.

Leading this group is transfer quarterback Dillon Gabriel. While his statistics from prior stops at Central Florida (UCF) and Oklahoma are impressive, he has yet to play a down for Oregon. The question is will Gabriel improve on those numbers (Boom?) or will he fall short (Bust?) against Big Ten Conference opponents.

Those who believe the former is most likely point to Gabriel’s work ethic, leadership skills and experience that all adds up to a banner year. Coming into the 2024 season, he has thrown for nearly 15,000 passing yards with a completion percentage of 63.1 resulting in 125 touchdowns with only 26 interceptions. Another advantage for Gabriel is the opportunity to play for offensive coordinator Will Stein’s high-octane offense. Recall that Oregon posted an average of 346.9 passing yards per game last year, best in the nation.

The reviews on Gabriel have so far been overwhelmingly positive as evidenced in a conversation    On3’s Andy Staples had with Stein earlier this year.

"Dillon has exceeded all expectations in that facet of his game, his preparation,” Stein said “Not only on the field but off the field. His film study, the way he takes care of his body, it's truly like coaching a pro."

Oregon’s quarterbacks pressure offensive coordinator Will Stein as he runs through a drill during practice with the Oregon Ducks Saturday, April 6, 2024 at the Hatfield-Dowlin Complex in Eugene, Ore. / Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA

Gabriel has also impressed those outside the Ducks’ family. Earlier this year, Gabriel attended the Elite 11 quarterback camp and The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman said it was a veteran QB who ended up stealing the show. That veteran was Gabriel. Feldman spoke with Elite 11’s General Manager, Brian Stumpf regarding Gabriel’s performance.

"Total rock star,” Stumpf said. “I think he exceeded expectations from what everybody would’ve thought of him from a throwing standpoint. He was a dude and a leader and super charismatic. All the high school kids were just raving about him.”

The stories about Gabriel continue to point to a Boom year. Afterall, he is now considered the odds-on-favorite to win the Heisman Trophy for the 2024 season. That does not mean; however, it is a certainty and a smooth ride ahead.

Perhaps the biggest obstacle Gabriel might face all year is the inevitable comparisons between him and former Ducks star, Bo Nix and how Gabriel responds. Consider that Nix put together a prolific season. Nix finished third in the Heisman Trophy voting while setting the NCAA single-season record for completion percentage 77.45 (364-of-470). He led the nation with 51 total touchdowns and broke the Oregon single-season records for completions (364), passing yards (4,508) and passing touchdowns (45) while throwing just three interceptions. Now he's a rookie with the Denver Broncos, vying to start.

Oregon quarterback Bo Nix leaps into the end zone for a touchdown as the No. 9 Oregon Ducks host Washington State Saturday, Oct. 21, 2023, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore. / Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA

While holding Gabriel’s feet to the fire in terms of matching these numbers is patently unfair, comparisons are going to be made. However, Gabriel has the experience and maturity to focus on those things he can control and push aside those he can’t.

To that point, Stein is running an offense designed to take advantage of the skillset the players bring to the table. At this time, it is difficult to know what changes might take place for the 2024 season other than understanding that this version of the Ducks is different than those in the past. Stein will run an offense that gives Oregon the best chance to be successful with the players currently on the team. As such, Gabriel’s numbers may not match what Nix did but that doesn’t necessarily mean Gabriel’s year is a bust.

There are, of course, other factors that will be considered when evaluating how well Gabriel performs. He enters the season with an exceptionally talented group of wide receivers including the one-two punch of Tez Johnson and transfer Evan Stewart. Oregon’s ground game should be solid with returning backs, Jordan James and Noah Whittington. The Ducks’ offensive line is rated among the top five in the country.

If Gabriel plays to his potential and the offense is hitting on all cylinders, there is little evidence to suggest anything but an outstanding 2024 campaign. We may not see Nix numbers, but Ducks fans would be more than happy with an opportunity to win a Big Ten title and a spot in the expanded College Football Playoffs with Gabriel at the helm.