Can Penn State Basketball Make a Big Ten Tournament Run?

Coach Mike Rhoades says the Nittany Lions are playing with "house money." They open Big Tens against Michigan.

As his first season at Penn State concludes, men's basketball coach Mike Rhoades has taken some time to look back. Court-storming wins over ranked opponents Wisconsin and Illinois gave him reason to celebrate an adversity-filled year with a major roster overhaul. And then there were moments like Penn State’s Madison Square Garden loss to Georgia Tech, due in part to a phantom foul call with time running out.

Rhoades compared that game to the time he lost on a 92-foot shot while coaching at Division III Randolph-Macon. It still gives him nightmares. Surely, blown double-digit leads against Minnesota (twice) and Northwestern, or the December blemish vs. Bucknell, have done the same. Rhoades mentioned a litany of in-game decisions and events that could keep him up at night. But that’s all part of the journey, as Rhoades bookends Year 1 with his first Big Ten Tournament, perhaps capping a season in which Penn State won nine conference games for just the eighth time in its history.

“All that stuff comes into play. That's sort of what coaches do. That's why we become insane at times. You do look back, but you gotta learn from it, too,” Rhoades said at his weekly media availability. “I think that guy blew a call [against Georgia Tech], but that's how it goes. That's life, and how you react to it and then go from there has a lot to do with where we're at right now.”

RELATED: Ace Baldwin Jr. leads Penn State over Maryland in Big Ten regular-season finale

Penn State (15-16) is the 11th seed in the Big Ten Tournament and will play Michigan at 9 p.m. ET Wednesday in Minneapolis. It’s the second matchup between the teams; Penn State rode a second-half comeback to beat the Wolverines 79-73 at the Palestra in January. If Penn State wins, it will play Indiana on Thursday. The Lions swept Indiana during the regular season for the first time since 2009.

“It's that time of the year. This is the fun part,” Rhoades said. “We like to say it's do or die. Go win a 40-minute game or get in the weight room. That's sort of been my mentality all the time.”

It’s a good draw for Penn State despite narrowly missing a first-round bye. In fact, missing that bye could wind up being a blessing in disguise. Should they string together a couple of wins, the Lions might have a case for the NIT, even though Rhoades won’t look that far ahead. He said after Sunday’s Senior Night win over Maryland that the Lions are playing with “house money” from here.

“Nobody thought we would win," Rhoades said. "[The media] didn't think we would win. Was [it KenPom who] thought we're gonna lose 17 in a row? I didn't think that. Our guys didn't think that. So when everyone's betting against you, when everybody is thinking you can't win in the Big Ten, but the guys putting on the uniforms and the coaches that are working with those guys think they can — that's house money. If I'm gonna bet on anyone, I'm gonna bet on us. And that's the fun of it. The pressure is on everybody else then.”

When Penn State won the NIT in 2017-18, the team had a better overall record but finished 9-9 in conference play. Three Big Ten teams made the NIT field last season, and each finished at .500 or one game above or below in the Big Ten. Such a “house money” approach at the end of Year 1 emphasizes the roller coaster Penn State has ridden this season.

“We've had moments — you guys have seen it — that we've played at a really high level against a lot of teams in the Big Ten. And that's where we want to get to on a consistent basis. That's the neat thing with this first year,” Rhoades said. “We've also had some moments where we haven't, but I think our approach and our guys — they think they can win.”

The future for Ace Baldwin Jr. and Puff Johnson

Penn State's roster faces two major roster decisions after the season. Senior starters Ace Baldwin Jr. and Puff Johnson are eligible to return but have not announced their plans. Baldwin said Sunday night he had not yet made a decision, and Johnson reiterated the sentiment Monday.

“We haven't talked about it at all yet, and I'm sure when the time comes, we'll talk about it,” Johnson said. “But right now we're just focused on going to the Big Ten tournament and seeing how we can make things shake down there and seeing what type of run we can make.”

Injury notes

Forward Demetrius Lilley is the only notable injury Penn State will carry into the Big Ten Tournament. The rotational big man missed seven of the final eight games of the season with an undisclosed injury.

After undergoing a procedure in mid-February, per Rhoades, Lilley has remained day-to-day. Rhoades said Monday he doesn’t particularly want to use that designation, but that’s pretty accurate to the way Lilley has dealt with the issue.

“The other day he was feeling good, and then the last two days he wasn't,” Rhoades said. “We'll see how he feels today. He was moving around the last couple of days and felt pretty good and was able to help us, then over the last two days he just wasn't well.”

Up next

Penn State, seeded 11th, meets 14th-seeded Michigan in the first round of the Big Ten Men's Basketball Tournament. Tip-off is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET Wednesday on Peacock.

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Max Ralph is a Penn State senior studying Broadcast Journalism with minors in sports studies and Japanese. He previously covered Penn State football for two years with The Daily Collegian and has reported with the Associated Press and Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Follow him on Twitter (X) @maxralph_ and Instagram @mralph_59.

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