A Friendly Playoff Bracket Raises Expectations for Penn State

The Nittany Lions might have the most favorable draw in the 12-team College Football Playoff.

Penn State football coach James Franklin rings the Beaver Stadium victory bell after the Nittany Lions' win over the Maryland Terrapins. / Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Rewind the calendar a few months, and Penn State's objective for this season was clear: to make the College Football Playoff. The poster child of a program that should benefit from the expanded postseason after years of coming up just short, Penn State looked down the barrel of a schedule that included USC, Washington, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Ohio State. So while Penn State’s usual amount of success should have given fans reason for hope, the schedule did not lack obstacles. And ultimately, there were a few. 

In total, USC looked to be the better team for three quarters of its game vs. the Nittany Lions in Los Angeles. Wisconsin boasted a home crowd, confidence and quarterback Drew Allar sitting out the second half. Minnesota was its usual frigid challenge. Ohio State was Ohio State.

Add in a feisty Bowling Green and road-opener jitters at West Virginia, and Penn State finishing the regular season 11-1 was maybe a notch better than even the most optimistic fans might have expected. The Nittany Lions navigated a season not short on landmines and defused nearly all of them along the way.

The result was, as many expected, Penn State’s first appearance in the College Football Playoff. The Nittany Lions will host SMU in a first-round game Dec. 21 at Beaver Stadium. 

All those months ago, that may have been more than enough to please some fans. If Penn State had made its way to the postseason, whatever happened next might have been just a bonus. Add in the unknown variables of who the Nittany Lions might play (some early CFP rankings projections included Notre Dame, Georgia and Ole Miss), and many fans would have simply been happy to see Penn State take another step. The notion that the program might actually host a home playoff game was a best-case scenario. Winning a game was something else altogether.

And while it was fun to consider dragging an SEC team into State College’s frigid December air, there was also the reality that Georgia wearing winter coats wouldn’t make the Bulldogs any less formidable. In short, getting in was this year’s battle. The rest was supposed to be extra.

Fast forward to now. Penn State, which nearly hosted Alabama in the first round, is set to host SMU instead. The winner takes on Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl on New Year's Eve. For Penn State, expectations have changed.

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Because however good they might be, the Mustangs don’t pack the same brand-name, daunting resume found elsewhere in the bracket. SMU boasts a solid defense and a quality offense but beyond Louisville, has no real meaningful wins of note. That’s not to say that SMU isn’t good, or that head coach Rhett Lashlee isn’t a capable playcaller who could mix up Tom Allen’s defense over the course of four quarters. But considering most of the alternatives, SMU is a favorable opponent. There’s no way around that.

Look beyond that, and Boise State awaits. The Broncos boast maybe the nation’s best player in running back Ashton Jeanty. But again, Boise State is not among the best in this bracket.

Still beyond that, it’s Notre Dame, Indiana and a Georgia team that likely will be playing without quarterback Carson Beck. None of those three teams should be considered easy by any stretch of the imagination. But in a bracket that includes Ohio State, Texas, Oregon, Arizona State, Tennessee and Clemson, it’s a favorable set of options for Penn State to earn a berth in the national title game. Objectively, nearly every team in the bracket would take Penn State’s draw given the chance to swap places. That’s simply the truth.

All that brings us back to the big picture. Yes, there was a time when Penn State making the playoffs was going to be enough for a lot of people in 2024. But now, facing an objectively favorable draw between here and a shot at the national championship, the Nittany Lions will no longer feel satisfied with much of anything short of a national semifinals appearance.

Oh, how things change.

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Ben Jones has been covering Penn State athletics for 13 years, having been to countless home and road games for Nittany Lion sporting events spanning from the Rose Bowl to the NCAA Tournament. He's also the author of the book Happy Valley Hockey. You can read his work at https://benjonesonpennstate.substack.com and follow him on X (Twitter) at Ben_Jones88