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Charting Penn State's Road to the College Football Playoff Title

Do the Nittany Lions have an easier path to the CFP final than No. 1 Oregon?

Mark Wogenrich

Penn State Nittany Lions running back Nicholas Singleton rushes up the field against Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Penn State Nittany Lions running back Nicholas Singleton rushes up the field against Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game at Lucas Oil Stadium. / Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
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Penn State football fans, meet SMU's official X account. You're going to like it.

The Nittany Lions will host SMU in the first College Football Playoff game at Beaver Stadium, which will kick off at noon ET Dec. 21. Penn State simmered late Saturday night in Indianapolis after a 45-37 loss to Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game but had one shoulder on which to lean: the likelihood of a home playoff game at Beaver Stadium. Penn State not only will host that game but also has commissioned it as a new brand: the "Playoff White Out."

"Beaver Stadium is probably a little more special in the playoffs," Penn State linebacker Kobe King said.

The CFP selection committee's final 12-team playoff bracket also unlocked a discussion that will perpetuate through the playoffs: Did Penn State, as the No. 6 seed, actually get an easier path to the championship game than top-seeded Oregon, to which it lost in the Big Ten Championship Game? ESPN's Rece Davis asked CFP selection commitee chair Warde Manuel that very question on Sunday's bracket show.

Manuel repeated that the committee simply ranks teams and then affixes them to the bracket that conference commissioners negotiated. The format includes byes for the four highest-ranked conference champions. As a result, Penn State, No. 4 in the final rankings, will play No. 10 SMU, which lost to Clemson in the ACC title game. Meanwhile, No. 1 Oregon gets a bye to the Rose Bowl but will face the winner of the 8-9 game between Ohio State and Tennessee. However, the committee ranked Ohio State No. 6 and Tennessee No. 7. Teams are not reseeded after the first round.

The perception that Penn State has an easier path to the final than Oregon does ignore one obvious point: Penn State would have to win three games, Oregon two. Still, here's the bracket. Note that Penn State is sided opposite Oregon, Texas and Ohio State, two of the teams to which it lost this season. In its half of the bracket, Penn State is ranked (not seeded) higher than four potential opponents: Notre Dame is No. 5, Indiana is No. 8, Boise State is No, 9 and SMU is No. 10.

Penn State opens as a favorite over SMU

DraftKings quickly made Penn State an 8-point favorite over SMU, which fell to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. SMU caused the biggest playoff stir of Sunday's reveal, as the selection committee chose it over Alabama for the final at-large bid. The Mustangs (11-2) rallied from a 24-7 deficit to tie the game with 16 seconds left, but Clemson's Nolan Hauser made a 56-yard field goal as time expired for a 34-31 win that put the Tigers in the field as the No. 12 seed.

SMU has been one of the ACC's best stories this season but with some caveats. Their strength of schedule ranks 60th, ninth among the 12 teams in the playoff field. SMU went 8-0 in the ACC, lost a non-conference game to BYU 18-15 and coach Rhett Lashlee was named the conference's coach of the year. SMU led the ACC in four defensive categories: scoring, run defense, third-down defense and defensive touchdowns (four).

What if Penn State beats SMU?

With a first-round win over SMU, the Nittany Lions would advance to a second-round game against Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl on New Year's Eve. The Broncos, seeded third, put together an exceptional season, going 12-1 with a closer loss to Oregon (37-34) than Penn State. Boise State ranks third nationally in scoring offense (39.1 ppg) and finished beat UNLV 21-7 in the Mountain West title game.

Boise State spotlights Heisman Trophy frontrunner Ashton Jeanty, the running back who recorded near-historic numbers during the regular season. Jeanty ran for 2,288 yards, fifth-best in FBS history, and 28 touchdowns in a remarkable regular season. According to Boise State, he generated 1,695 yards after contact and forced 130 missed tackles.

More Penn State Football

What they said after the Big Ten Championship Game

James Franklin addresses officiating after Big Ten title game loss to Oregon

A 2025 White Out date? Penn State to host Oregon next September

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.


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Mark Wogenrich
MARK WOGENRICH

Mark Wogenrich is Editor and Publisher of AllPennState, the site for Penn State news on SI's FanNation Network. He has covered Penn State sports for more than two decades across three coaching staffs and three Rose Bowls.

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