ESPN's College Football Power Index Still Loves Penn State

The Nittany Lions were FPI darlings in 2023. ESPN continues to favor them in 2024.

Penn State Nittany Lions running back Nicholas Singleton runs with the ball against the Michigan State Spartans during their 2023 game at Ford Field in Detroit. / David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports

ESPN's College Football Power Index fell in love with Penn State football last year and hasn't let go. In November, after the regular season concluded, the Nittany Lions ranked fourth in the ESPN FPI, ahead of playoff participants Alabama and Texas. Penn State finished fifth in the final rankings, still ahead of Alabama and Texas even after losing to Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl. And in the early 2024 model released in February, Penn State landed at No. 7.

The FPI's soft spot for Penn State isn't fading. In the most recent model released this week, Penn State sits at No. 6 and is the third Big Ten team on the list. The Nittany Lions, who went 10-3 last season, rank behind a top five of Georgia, Oregon, Texas, Ohio State and Alabama. Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Missouri round out the top 10.

Why does the FPI think so highly of Penn State? Last year it was defense. Penn State ranked No. 4 in the SP+ metrics in defense and retained that spot in the post-spring breakdown. Defensive coordinator Tom Allen certainly has a standard to uphold, which Penn State coach James Franklin acknowledged during spring practice.

"When you follow Manny Diaz [now the head coach at Duke], you've got to be confident with that and you've got to be comfortable in your own skin," Franklin said. "In a very, very short period of time, the guys have connected with [Allen], and right now we're flying around and playing with a ton of confidence, which is great to see."

At No. 6 in the early FPI rankings, Penn State is positioned squarely as a playoff contender. That girds the university's decision to reschedule fall graduation in case the Nittany Lions host a College Football Playoff first-round game. But are the Nittany Lions overvalued? ESPN's Jake Trotter weighed in on the question:

"Penn State has been overshadowed by Ohio State and Michigan in the Big Ten," Trotter wrote. "Yet while the Wolverines and Buckeyes have uncertainty at quarterback, the Nittany Lions have the top returning QB in the league in Drew Allar, who threw 25 touchdowns with only two interceptions last season. Could this be the year that Penn State finally gets over the Big Ten hump? A No. 6 ranking might seem high. But the Nittany Lions have the pieces on both sides of the ball to warrant such a bullish outlook."

Penn State opens the 2021 season Aug. 31 at West Virginia, which it will visit for the first time since 1992. Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET on FOX.

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AllPennState is the place for Penn State news, opinion and perspective on the SI.com network. Publisher Mark Wogenrich has covered Penn State for more than 20 years, tracking three coaching staffs, three Big Ten titles and a catalog of great stories. Follow him on Twitter @MarkWogenrich.