Fiesta Bowl Tale of the Tape: Penn State Vs. Boise State

Penn State will meet Boise State for the first time in the Fiesta Bowl on New Year’s Eve with the chance to advance to the College Football Playoff semifinals. After smashing SMU 38-10 in the first round, the Nittany Lions are favored going into a matchup against the nation’s highest-ranked Group of Five team.
That said, being the underdog has never deterred the Broncos, who have made a name for themselves with flashy postseason upsets. Boise State has won 11 straight games, including the Mountain West championship game, and coach Spencer Danielson is embracing the underdog mentality.
“All the outside noise of people counting us out: awesome. … You’ve gotta block the outside noise, and I believe that. Like, please count us out,” Danielson said. “And that's what Boise State football has been built on, is people thinking we can't do something, and we work our tails off to find a way to prove people wrong.”
So how do the Broncos match up with Penn State? Let’s go to the tale of the tape.
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When Penn State is on offense
Boise State’s defense ranks in the middle of the pack nationally but has played well recently, allowing 16 points per game over its last five and only five touchdowns in its last 14 quarters.
Penn State offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki said the Broncos have a “disruptive” defensive line, which starts with edge rushers Jayden Virgin-Morgan and Ahmed Hassanein. The duo ranks second and third in the Mountain West with 10 and 8.5 sacks, respectively. As a team, Boise State ranks first in the conference with 51 sacks.
“Defensively, they're a really sound unit,” Penn State quarterback Drew Allar said. “You don't see many mistakes in the run game, like guys in the same gap. Not many blown coverages. So I think they're a very sound and disciplined group, and that starts with the coaching staff. They do a great job in getting those guys aligned in the right spots.”
SMU also has a stout defensive line, but the Nittany Lions neutralized that well with a strong running game and some timely scrambles from Allar. Running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen appear as healthy as they’ve been this season and are trending toward another busy day in Arizona. They’ll be aided by an offensive line that has improved as the season has progressed. Big Ten Network’s Matt Millen called this the best Penn State offensive line he has seen in a decade.
Another matchup to watch is how Boise State defends against Tyler Warren. The Broncos defense has defended tight ends well this season, allowing 29 catches for 252 yards and four touchdowns across 13 games. But they haven’t faced a tight end like Warren, who has 1,095 yards receiving, 197 yards rushing and 10 total touchdowns. The Mackey Award winner is arguably Penn State’s most important offensive piece, and the Broncos will need to limit his production to stop this offense.
“I think that he makes every part of their offense better,” Boise State defensive coordinator Erik Chinander said.
Penn State Vs. Boise State: By the Numbers
Penn State | Statistic | Boise State |
---|---|---|
33.9 | Scoring Offense | 39.1 |
15.9 | Scoring Defense | 21.9 |
439.8 | Total Offense | 470.2 |
201.2 | Rushing Offense | 250.5 |
280 | Total Defense | 361.9 |
80.5 | Starting Quarterback Rating | 73.6 |
+7 | Turnover Margin | +7 |
30:43 | Time of Possession | 31:41 |
17.16 | Offensive Explosive Play % | 15.75 |
11.38 | Defensive Explosive Play % | 12.78 |
When Penn State is on defense
Of course, star running back Ashton Jeanty is going to be the major talking point for Boise State. The Heisman runner-up leads the nation with 2,497 yards rushing and 29 touchdowns and averages 7.3 yards per carry. Penn State coach James Franklin has referred multiple times this week to Jeanty’s most “ridiculous” stat: his 1,889 rushing yards after contact. Additionally, Jeanty said that he feels “super fresh” after three weeks of rest and is as close to 100 percent as he has been all season.
Jeanty’s short, compact frame (5-9, 215 pounds) will make it hard for individual Nittany Lions to bring down, so it’ll be important for Penn State to swarm to the ball and wrap him. Defensive coordinator Tom Allen compared Jeanty to Derrick Henry, the Baltimore Ravens running back who won a Heisman Trophy at Alabama. Linebacker Kobe King likened him to former Michigan star and Los Angeles Rams back Blake Corum. Regardless of comparison, Jeanty is a strong runner who no team has been able to stop this season.
“Obviously, we played a lot of good backs over the years, but he's going to go down as one of the greatest we ever played against,” Allen said.
And while Jeanty gets the headlines, the steady play of quarterback Maddux Madsen has been key for the Broncos this season. Madsen has thrown for 2,714 yards and 22 touchdowns with just three interceptions. His top receiver is Cameron Camper, who has 55 catches for 837 yards and four touchdowns.
“[Madsen] doesn't get a lot of press, but he’s a tough, gritty kid that is accurate with what they ask him to do,” Allen said. “He's very, very effective. That's a testament to the scheme that they put together. [Offensive coordinator Dirk] Koetter has done a tremendous job with that and just putting him in conflicts so you can't gang up on him and trying to stop the run game.”
As a whole, the Broncos offense has been very productive. It ranks third nationally in points per game (39.1) and sixth in total yards of offense (470.2). It’s worth noting that Boise State put up these gaudy numbers in the Mountain West, a conference that has only three teams with records above .500. Against Oregon, the only Power Four team Boise State has faced this season, the Broncos had 369 total yards in a 37-34 loss.
Still, Jeanty rumbled for 192 yards and three touchdowns against the Ducks, while the offense avoided turning the ball over and was an efficient 9/19 on third down. If Boise State can turn in another game like that, its offense will have a chance.
Step 1 for Penn State is stopping the run, which it has done well this season. Penn State ranks seventh nationally in run defense and has allowed just one 100-yard rusher (USC's Woody Marks). Step 2 is forcing Boise State into passing downs and making Madsen beat them. If the Broncos are forced to throw it, that’s where the Penn State pass rush and secondary can pounce.
Penn State meets Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl on Tuesday at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
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Sam Woloson has covered Penn State Athletics for the past three years and is currently the managing editor of The Daily Collegian. His work has also appeared in Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Huntingdon Daily News and Rivals. Follow him on X @sam_woloson