For Penn State's James Franklin, Another Pivotal Moment at Minnesota

Franklin's teams have dominated unranked opponents since 2016. Can the Nittany Lions do so again vs. the Gophers?

Penn State coach James Franklin looks on from the sideline during the fourth quarter against the Washington Huskies at Beaver Stadium. / Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Get ready because, believe it or not, Saturday is the latest entry into the James Franklin Big Game conversation.

Yes, over the past decade, Penn State has won only a handful of games that represent achieving big-picture goals. If we’re going to boil it down, there are two wins: the 2016 Ohio State game, and the eventual Big Ten title game that followed. The rest — including Cotton, Rose and Fiesta Bowl wins — carry meaningful weight of their own, but not to the same extent.

And that brings us back to Saturday game's at Minnesota, where the stakes are simple. If Penn State wins, it will have overcome the last reasonable obstacle between it and the College Football Playoff. Penn State will still have to beat Maryland at Beaver Stadium, but there’s no legitimate reason to think that won’t happen.

Lose to the Gophers on Saturday, however, and it’s not unlikely that Penn State will miss the playoffs. That isn’t absolute, but it is a probable outcome.

RELATED: How Minnesota is preparing for No. 4 Penn State

Of course, you can argue — and rightfully so — that every game is a big game in this context. Franklin tends to make this argument, which is often greeted with eye-rolling, but he isn’t wrong. Even in a 12-team playoff, the margin of error is small, and every game matters.

This time around, Penn State is 9-1 with wins road wins against USC, Wisconsin and West Virginia. The Nittany Lions’ only blemish is a seven-point loss to a national-title favorite. Despite all this, some still question the Nittany Lions’ legitimacy.

So there's work left to be done. And that’s where Franklin probably doesn’t get enough credit. Because once again, Penn State rarely loses the games it shouldn’t: That’s 29 consecutive wins over regular-season opponents not named Ohio State or Michigan.

Alabama hired the hottest coach on the market, equipped him with a Heisman hopeful at quarterback and still lost to Vanderbilt as a 20+ point favorite. Miami, boasting a Heisman hopeful quarterback of its own in a fairly mundane conference, was one controversial replay ruling away from losing to a very average Virginia Tech team.

Clemson just isn't very good. Tennessee lost to Arkansas and managed only 14 points in the process. Florida State started the season with plenty of expectations and crashed and burned harder than any team ever has.

Bring it back to Penn State, and how often has that happened? Maybe once since 2016, a nine-overtime defeat to Illinois in 2021. But even that game you could partially explain away due to an injured Sean Clifford and an overtime skills contest that Illinois survived as much as it won.

If you exclude the COVID-19 season, which featured empty stadiums, a short offseason and plenty of other quirks, the last loss Penn State took to an unranked team prior to 2021 was in 2017 to Michigan State following a three-hour weather delay. Befor that, a 2016 loss to Pitt. For their part, the Panthers would go on to beat No. 2 Clemson later that year as well.

That’s it.

Since 2016, Penn State has played 102 regular-season games [not including the COVID-19 season] and lost to three unranked teams: Pitt, Michigan State and Illinois. Each was explainable but also undeniable. Otherwise, Penn State is 66-3 against unranked teams over that span (again, 2020 notwithstanding).

And sure, you can find fault in the other record too, Penn State has gone 13-20 against ranked teams over that stretch with a good number of those losses coming in high-stakes moments. Nobody will argue that Penn State hasn’t left meat on the bone.

But on the whole, few programs have done better in these sorts of moments where the big game leads to the even bigger game. There is an argument to be made that it’s better to always come up short than only to have a chance to do something special once every few years. Franklin and Penn State have consistently put themselves in a position to have those opportunities.

And in a world that is always changing, there’s something to be said for always being right there, even if always coming up short drives everyone crazy in the process.

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Ben Jones has been covering Penn State athletics for 13 years, having been to countless home and road games for Nittany Lion sporting events spanning from the Rose Bowl to the NCAA Tournament. He's also the author of the book Happy Valley Hockey. You can read his work at https://benjonesonpennstate.substack.com and follow him on X (Twitter) at Ben_Jones88