In the New Big Ten, Penn State Might Have an Opportunity

College football analyst Mike Golic Jr. assesses the Nittany Lions' chances in the 18-team Big Ten.

Penn State coach James Franklin rings the victory bell following a Nittany Lions victory at Beaver Stadium. / Matthew O'Haren-USA TODAY Sports

Penn State has spent three consecutive seasons banging its head into Michigan and Ohio State. The Nittany Lions are 0-6 in that stretch against their prime nemeses, missing the College Football Playoff the past two seasons after those losses. But that arc changes in 2024. The playoff expands to 12 teams, Michigan is off the schedule and Penn State probably won't need to beat the Buckeyes to earn a playoff spot.

Further, with Big Ten divisions evaporated and Oregon, USC, Washington and UCLA joining the conference, the dynamic of a being the third wheel no longer applies. Penn State can go 10-2 despite losing to Ohio State for the eighth consecutive year and still make the playoff. As a result, college football analyst Mike Golic Jr. doesn't believe Penn State confronts a must-win date against Ohio State on Nov. 2 at Beaver Stadium. But the Nittany Lions still have to show something, Golic said.

"Ohio State's in a class of their own right now," Golic said in a recent interview. "Losing to Ohio State in November is not going to surprise anybody. And to me, it wouldn't be a huge indictment of where Penn State is at. Because at that point, if Ohio State's got the kinks worked out and [quarterback] Will Howard is up and humming, that thing is going to be death-star mode."

However, Golic does see some potential stumbles on Penn State's schedule

"You've got to be able to go on the road and handle business against USC [on Oct. 12]," Golic said. "You've certainly got to get through the opening week at West Virginia clean against a team that's not going to be an easy out by any stretch of the imagination. And so for Penn State, I think it's about consistency and adding an explosive layer to the offense. If they do that, they've got a chance with damn near everybody. We've seen that. But it's got to be, 'If we lose to Ohio State, that's fine, but we can't lose to Ohio State just tucking our tail between our legs and trying to just go out and not lose it. We've got to go and take swings and try to win this thing the way that we've seen them do it in the past.' But that just wasn't the case last year."

Elsewhere in the Big Ten, Golic sees some growing pains, which might produce an opening for Penn State.

"Michigan is going to potentially take a step back this year with all of the turnover, from guys going to the NFL to the coaching changes to the sanctions hanging over their head," Golic said. "We would all expect that team, especially offensively, to understandably have some growing pains mixed in there. Then you've got Washington, which is going through a huge change this year and will probably be down. USC is in the middle of some tumult as they try to reestablish their lines of scrimmage, especially defensively. So it does feel like an opportunity for Penn State."

Penn State opens the 2024 season Aug. 31 at West Virginia. Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET on FOX.

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Penn State on SI is the place for Penn State news, opinion and perspective on the SI.com network. Publisher Mark Wogenrich has covered Penn State for more than 20 years, tracking three coaching staffs, three Big Ten titles and a catalog of great stories. Follow him on X (or Twitter) @MarkWogenrich.