Mike Golic Jr. Predicts the Penn State-Notre Dame Matchup in the Orange Bowl

Golic, who played for the Fighting Irish, sees plenty of similarities between the teams, including the narratives surrounding them.

Penn State Nittany Lions teammates Drew Allar (15) and Dvon J-Thomas (91) celebrate their 31-14 win over the Boise State Broncos in the Fiesta Bowl. / Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Mike Golic Jr. played football at Notre Dame, so it's understandable that he might lean toward the Fighting Irish in the Orange Bowl. But as a football analyst and co-host of DraftKings' GoJo podcast, Golic sees a thin margin between Penn State and Notre Dame.

"Both teams at their best are led by dominant defenses that can turn the ball over and give their offense other cracks at it," he said. "You've got two talented but flawed quarterbacks in Riley Leonard and Drew Allar. You've got running back rooms stocked full of talent, with [Kaytron] Allen and [Nicholas] Singleton on the Penn State side, and Jeremiyah Love and [Jadarian] Price and Riley Leonard's legs on the Notre Dame side. That’s why I dubbed this the Spiderman pointing-meme game."

In an interview before the Orange Bowl, Golic discussed those margins, looked at where each time might find advantages and made his prediction.

Question: What are the Orange Bowl's primary story lines?

Mike Golic Jr.: There's the macro version of this game, where both coaches and both programs have in some way gotten a bit of that big-game-issue moniker attached to them. Notre Dame on paper got to wave goodbye to that after the quarterfinal win over Georgia. They were 0-8 in BCS and New Year’s 6 games and hadn’t won a big-time playoff game since 1993. And Georgia has the mental cache for so many people, even if the team wasn't as great as it's been in prior years, where people feel like that’s a box checked for Notre Dame. I’d be curious whether Penn State [fans] feel the same way, understanding that we all know what the path looked like for Penn State in the lead-up to this point. The wins have felt dominant, especially on defense: the way they’ve taken the ball over, the way that Drew Allar looked against Boise State, all that stuff. It certainly seems to serve that. But the Penn State problem has been so unique just because it's been relative to teams like Ohio State Michigan. So I think from that standpoint, it's interesting, because this now qualifies as a big game for sure for both sides, and a trip to the national championship for James Franklin I think silences pretty much everything that people have talked about there.

Question: What stands out with Penn State?

Mike Golic Jr.: Obviously [Penn State defensive end] Abdul Carter and his availability for this game is huge. But Penn State doesn’t throw as much at you in terms of the pressure packages and some of the exotics that Al Golden and Notre Dame are going to do. That's not Tom Allen's bag in the same way, and they don't have to. They've got a D-line that's pretty dominant in terms of the talent across the board and what they can force you into there. But with Notre Dame, it's well documented that they've lost so much of their defensive depth already due to injury, and that includes going into the quarterfinal matchup, where they lost arguably their best D-tackle in Rylie Mills. Offensively for Penn State you’ve got [offensive coordinator] Andy Kotelnicki's pre-snap exotics, where they're moving around the quarterback and doing a lot of the fun window dressing that maybe Penn State fans at times wish he did a little less of that and just ran outside zone, which you're pretty good at.

Question: How about Notre Dame?

Mike Golic Jr.: Notre Dame has been a little bit more of an inside zone team. They major at running a lot of the quarterback; that's sort of their break-in-case-of-emergency. And Notre Dame has struggled to be a consistent passing team overall. Penn State has been an efficient passing team, just not an explosive one down the field outside of a couple of moments where you finally broke through against Boise State.

Question: What do you see as the key deciding factor?

Mike Golic Jr.: I think the biggest differentiator is in the red zone. Notre Dame has been a below average red-zone football team on offense, unless the field position coming off a turnover has really gotten them on the doorstep. And Penn State has been an above average team in that area. So what happens in that red-zone matchup and then the explosive-play matchups? Penn State is sixth in explosive-play percentage in college football on offense, and Notre Dame is sixth in explosive-play percentage allowed on defense. And so where's the rubber going to meet the road in that matchup?

Question: Who is your Penn State player to watch?

Mike Golic Jr.: I'm stating the obvious here, but Tyler Warren is the most interesting matchup for me in this game for Notre Dame. Who matches up with Tyler Warren from the Notre Dame defense that plays more man coverage than anyone in college football? What's that going to look like for them? Xavier Watts, the Notre Dame star safety, generally they like to have him back playing center field and being the guy that can sort of erase mistakes. Is it going to be [safety] Adon Shuler, who is a freshman all-American in some outlets? Is it going to be Jack Kiser from the linebacker level? Are they going to bring in [defensive back] Jordan Clark, who's been majoring in nickel this year? Tyler Warren is such a potent threat in their passing game, you have to sort of treat him like just the best wide receiver on the opposing team since he is.

Question: How about from Notre Dame?

Mike Golic Jr.: The X-factor offensively, especially against a really good run defense, is Jordan Faison, Notre Dame's wide receiver who is obviously a star lacrosse player, too. He has been the one guy down the stretch in critical moments who they seem to be able to rely on in the pass game. Against Georgia, he was the one guy that seemed to be able to separate, find space, make some plays in a passing game that we know for Notre Dame isn't the strength. But when they need to call on it there and get a win, he seems to be the guy for them.

Question: How about a prediction?

Mike Golic Jr.: I like Notre Dame in this one. I think the interesting X-factor is always coaching. [Notre Dame's] Marcus Freeman seems to really have grown into himself and understands that the offense is imperfect so we're going to have to take some chances. There's going to be the fake punts, the fake kicks, the moment where you're going to have to steal a possession or two over the course of the game. And Marcus Freeman, from year one to now, the strides in his confidence in executing that aggressive style and the way his team has rallied around that, has made a huge difference. And so I think in a game where the two sides are incredibly similar, that’s a difference. I also think the Notre Dame defensive front against the Penn State offensive line will be an advantage. I was amazed, even looking back at that game, how much SMU [and Boise State] was able to get after Penn State up front and bother Allar a bit. I think this Notre Dame defense is playing some real locked in football, and they can still be the strength of this team to get them to win.

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