Orange Bowl Predictions: Urban Meyer, the Computers and More Pick Penn State Vs. Notre Dame

The Fighting Irish are slight favorites over the Nittany Lions, who are getting some love from the algorithms.

Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin against the Boise State Broncos in the Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium. / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

After two College Football Playoff games as the favorite, Penn State football returns to the underdog role against Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl. The Nittany Lions probably prefer it that way.

Penn State, a 1.5-point underdog to Notre Dame at DraftKings, also is sliding in the prediction game according to college football's analysis class. Notre Dame, it seems, is the favored choice to win the Orange Bowl and reach the College Football Playoff championship game. So who's leading the Orange Bowl predictions? Let's take a tour.

FOX analyst Urban Meyer leaned toward Notre Dame on The Triple Option podcast. Meyer is a big fan of Penn State — "That is a great football team," he said — but made Notre Dame his early pick.

"I'm staring at this game and I'm not sure I'm prepared to do that [make a prediction]," Meyer said. "I want to buy a little time here. If Notre Dame plays like they played [against Georgia in the Sugar Bowl], they win. Once again, Vegas is all over this. I'd put it at even [money] for Notre Dame vs. Penn State. ... I've got this as a pick 'em right now. If Notre Dame plays they way they did, they beat Penn State."

On ESPN's Matt Barrie Show, Paul Finebaum continued questioning Penn State's postseason schedule in picking Notre Dame to beat the Nittany Lions.

"Today I would say Notre Dame and Ohio State [in the championship game] because they've been the most impressive," Finebaum said. "I just can't get excited about Penn State beating SMU at home and Boise State [in the Fiesta Bowl]. ... To me, the idea that Penn State could make it to the semifinals not having played anyone yet is the main reason why I like Notre Dame."

On3's Andy Staples and Ari Wasserman are split on the Orange Bowl, with Wasserman picking Notre Dame and Staples leaning toward Penn State for this reason.

"The biggest difference between Penn State and the Georgia team Notre Dame just vanquished probably is offensive X-factor Tyler Warren," Staples writes. "The Nittany Lions tight end can do everything, and he’s capable of making catches no one on the Notre Dame or Georgia roster can make."

At CBS, Notre Dame is the overwhelming pick. Ten of the site's 11 experts pick the Fighting Irish, and Ohio State gets a clean sweep over Texas in the Cotton Bowl.

Mike Golic Jr., the former Notre Dame offensive lineman and football analyst, likes Notre Dame in a duel between similar teams. His differentiator: Fighting Irish coach Marcus Freeman.

Adam Burke of VSiN, which looks at games from the betting lens, likes the under between the defensive-minded teams.

Bill Connelly's SP+ formula at ESPN has Penn State with the second-highest chance (behind Ohio State) to win the whole thing and with a razor-thin ratings advantage over Notre Dame (25.8 to 25.5).

Want more numbers? College Football Insiders processes a bunch of them in giving Penn State a lean advantage over Penn State. But this is as tossup as it gets: CFI's formula spits out 22.87 expected points for Penn State and 22.62 for Notre Dame. Penn State's win probability is just over 1 percentage point higher than Notre Dame's, marking this game as rife with all kinds of outlier potential.

Penn State meets Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl on Thursday at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. Kickoff is scheduled for just past 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

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