Orange Bowl Preview: Penn State's X-Factor Vs. Notre Dame, Predictions

What got the Nittany Lions to the College Football Playoff semifinals will be instrumental in getting them past the Fighting Irish.

The Penn State Nittany Lions react with the trophy after defeating the Boise State Broncos in the Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium. / Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images

FORT LAUDERDALE | When he called the play in the Fiesta Bowl, Penn State offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki expected a specific look from the Boise State defense. "Didn't work out," Kotelnicki said of the Tyler Warren toss to Drew Allar throwback to Warren attempt. Though the play didn't work then, Kotelnicki emphasized, he will call it again.

"You have to have a balance of doing things that are going to be creative, cause stress on the defense, hopefully get players wide open, keep the opponent on their heels and doing traditional things," Kotelnicki said. "But we don't want to live in the traditional world."

As Penn State football prepares to face Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl, it will dance with what got it here, to the College Football Playoff semifinals. That's Tyler Warren in the Wildcat, or snapping and catching the ball for a touchdown on the same play. That's motioning a 350-pound offensive guard across the formation. That's calling a play-action pass from in a short-yardage situation, as the Nittany Lions did vs. Boise State. And that's having Warren pitch the ball to Allar for the first time this season, hoping to catch the Broncos out of position for a big gain on third-and-short.

When the plays work, great call, Kotelnicki said. When they don't, not so much. Kotelnicki is fluent in the language of hindsight, which gauges playcalling genius or stupidity based on results. But as an offensive coordinator who likes to play off balance, Kotelnicki also understands his expectations and limits.

"Coach [James] Franklin [has talked] about playing to win. Absolutely. That is a total paradigm you have to embrace," Kotelnicki said. "I have spent many times in my career as an offensive coordinator playing not to lose. And as soon as you do that, that's when you get too conservative, and then all you do is you blame your players for not physically overwhelming the opponent. And we don't want to do that."

Kotelnicki has operated Penn State's offense as a theme park parade sometimes this season, with colors and costumes adorning a fairly standard structure. Ultimately, Penn State's offense runs many of the same run plays as every other team in college football. They just do so with more pre-snap flair.

"There's just so much eye candy out there that you've got to get through all those layers before you even get to the DNA of their offense," Boise State defensive coordinator Eric Chinander said before the Fiesta Bowl.

Kotelnicki thrives there. He loves the layers and isn't afraid of the trick play, though he deploys it judiciously. Penn State drilled the Warren snap/catch play for weeks before surfacing it against USC. Same thing with the Warren throwback against Boise State. One worked, the other didn't. As a result, one was more "too cute" than the other, at least on the outside. For Kotelnicki, it's bigger than that.

"It starts with identifying with a team about what you want to be good at and why and making sure that everything you do is rooted in substance," Kotelnicki said. "And then with the creativity piece, you've got to be careful that, if you end up doing too much, you maybe lose sight of some of the 'simple things' that maybe aren't as sexy looking that can be effective. And so it's about having to balance those two things. I can tell you, through the years as a playcaller, I have made the mistake of either living in both of those worlds too much: being too vanilla, if you will, and recognizing that I'm not helping our players execute and do their job, or being too creative and recognizing that you're not fundamentally sound enough. I wish there was a little more science to that. It's just a little bit of art form and a little bit of feel and so about knowing your players."

Penn State will need Kotelnicki at the peak of his art against Notre Dame, whose defense takes away a lot of science. The Fighting Irish bludgeon teams with their pass rush, sure tackling and relentless man coverages, all of which squeeze the strengths from offenses. If Penn State's run game can't generate space, or Notre Dame restricts Warren, Kotelnicki will dip into his bag of curiosities. That's one reason the Nittany Lions are here. Kotelnicki can't hold back now.

Orange Bowl Predictions

Mark Wogenrich: In tandem with Kotelnicki, Penn State's Orange Bowl differentiator will be Drew Allar. He's probably the best pure quarterback remaining in the final four and needs to play like it. So far, Allar has been an inconsistent lot in the playoffs. He has made some unreal throws. That timing route to Omari Evans in the Fiesta Bowl was a first-round pass. But he also has disappeared at times. Allar, whose completion rate was 71.6 percent in the regular season, is at 53.5 percent in three postseason games. Allar has a great game in him. Now's the time. Penn State 27, Notre Dame 24

Daniel Mader: This will be a significant test in the trenches for a Penn State team that's been taking control of playoff games in those areas. As James Franklin noted earlier this week, these two squads are built similarly — so whichever team can run the ball more effectively may walk out of this matchup victorious. With how the Nittany Lions have dominated the ground game vs. some strong opponents lately though, I can’t doubt them against the Fighting Irish. It will be close. And it will take a strong, turnover-free performance from Drew Allar. But I think Penn State sneaks by Notre Dame in Miami, advancing to the national championship game in its first CFP appearance. Penn State 21, Notre Dame 17

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