Penn State Football 2024 Picks and Predictions

James Franklin said the Nittany Lions "embrace" expectations. There are plenty this season.

Penn State coach James Franklin greets fans prior to the Blue-White Game at Beaver Stadium. / Matthew O'Haren-USA TODAY Sports

James Franklin begins Year 11 at Penn State on a significantly elevated plane from Year 1 in 2014. He has the infrastructure, coaching staff, recruiting program and developmental system in place to field a top-10 team annually. But he wants more, as do you, Penn State football fan.

"[The players] embrace that we're at a place like Penn State where we've been able to consistently, for the most part, win 10 or 11 games, but that's not the expectation at Penn State," Franklin said at Big Ten Media Days. "They chose Penn State, just like I chose Penn State, to compete for championships, and we embrace that. But we are one of the few programs in the country [where] you can win 10 or 11 games and people are unhappy. So we embrace that, and we're excited about those opportunities, and it starts for us at West Virginia in Morgantown, which is going to be a challenging opening game."

Penn State heads into its Aug. 31 opener at West Virginia embracing a world of possibility and, yes, pressure. How will the Nittany Lions react? Our prospects, presumptions and predictions for Penn State's 2024 season.

RELATED: Penn State 2024 season preview: Addressing the Nittany Lions' assets and issues

Does James Franklin have to make the College Football Playoff this season?

From a job-security perspective, no. He has support from Penn State's president, athletic director and Board of Trustees chair. He also has a $56 million buyout in 2024, per his most recent term sheet, should Penn State even consider a move. Yes, that number can be negotiated, but won't need to be.

But from a fan-base perspective, Franklin certainly needs a playoff bid to, as he said, "embrace" expectations. Penn State has found it challenging enough to raise enough NIL money to compete with rivals like Ohio State. Some donors might close the checkbook, or contribute to Beaver Stadium, if there isn't playoff progress this season.

Further, this is the pivotal season for Penn State's 2022 recruiting class that has produced so many strong players. Seven are on the 2025 Senior Bowl watch list, though they're juniors. Franklin could lose Drew Allar, Nicholas Singleton, Kaytron Allen, Abdul Carter, Dani Dennis-Sutton, KJ Winston and Zane Durant to the draft next season. If he does, Penn State likely went places.

Andy Kotelnicki and an offensive revival

No pressure, Coach K. He's simply tasked with punching up on the schedule, scoring points in FOX Big Noon games and getting Penn State not just a playoff berth but at least one win. Kotelnicki probably was the No. 2 Big Ten hire this season behind Chip Kelly at Ohio State.

"I am excited about all of the possibilities that are on the table with Kotelnicki," college football analyst Mike Golic Jr. said in an interview. "I don't expect to see Penn State's offensive tackles lined up seven yards away from the guard, but I will be interested in this: If you're James Franklin, what have you given him the OK on? What have you green-lit as far as the freak flag that can actually fly with them?"

Kotelnicki's an engaging guy. He talks about Tigger and Eeyore and Dairy Queen. He asked his players to practice their public speaking skills. He does "Frank the Tank" impressions in meetings and wonders why players don't get it. "Old School, I don't think that's old, but you've got to remember that [the movie] came out before they were born," Kotelnicki said. Fun. Now, can he scheme open Penn State's receivers?

Penn State quarterback Drew Allar listens to offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki during the Blue-White Game at Beaver Stadium. / Matthew O'Haren-USA TODAY Sports

Drew Allar must let go

Last season, Franklin praised Allar for being comfortable throwing checkdowns. Fine for a first-year starter but not now. Allar averaged 6.8 yards per attempt last season, which ranked 77th in the country. The second-year starter has to cut himself loose from that mindset, and Kotelnicki's offense must encourage it. Kotelnicki has spent eight months lavishing praise on Allar's big arm. Time to deploy it.

The schedule has an interesting quirk

The Aug. 31 opener at West Virginia certainly is challenging, and Franklin has spent hours fretting over the travel schedule to USC in October. That's part of a season-defining, five-week stretch in October and November: at USC, bye, at Wisconsin, Ohio State, White Out vs. Washington. But there's a weird September stretch to watch on the way there.

After visiting West Virginia, Penn State essentially heads back to training camp. The Nittany Lions host Bowling Green (No. 103 in ESPN's College Football Power Index), then have a very early bye, then host Kent State (No. 134 and last in the FPI) on Sept. 21. They'll go a month without meaningful competition.

Good? Penn State should rep a lot of young players in those two games. Bad? Will Franklin really have a sense of his team when it opens Big Ten play against Illinois on Sept. 28?

Penn State preseason awards

• Offensive MVP: Nicholas Singleton fits this offense skillfully, and Kotelnicki will have a great time scheming for the back.

• Defensive MVP: Edge rusher Dani Dennis-Sutton takes advantage of Abdul Carter's focus on the other side to produce 12 sacks.

• Unsung hero: Middle linebacker Kobe King provides the sure tackling and assertive voice that defensive coordinator Tom Allen needs to operate.

• Rookie of the year: Receiver Tyseer Denmark makes an impact at a position of deep need and perhaps on special teams as well.

• Player you don't know now but will in November: Tight end Andrew Rappleyea, a redshirt freshman who played in three games last season, complements Tyler Warren in the pass game.

The Penn State season prediction

Penn State doesn't have to define this season through Ohio State and Michigan. One isn't on the schedule, and the Nittany Lions don't need to beat the other to make the playoff. What Penn State must to is fill the baseline requirements of the past two seasons: Win the games where it's favored. If they get out of Morgantown with a victory (no guarantees there), the Nittany Lions have a nice runway to 5-0 and USC. By then, Kotelnicki's offense should know its identity, and Allen's defense should be framed sufficiently in its primary 4-2-5 look.

This is one of Franklin's deepest teams in across-the-board talent. The question surrounds offensive playmakers. Specifically, does Penn State have enough beyond Singleton, Allen and Warren to frustrate defenses from all angles? The Nittany Lions go from good to great by developing a receiving corps with a game-breaker and at least one more complementary piece. They're not elite yet.

Penn State goes 10-2, winning one of the marquee games but losing somewhere else (at Wisconsin? at Minnesota?) on a bad day. That's good enough for a No. 8 seed and a home playoff game at Beaver Stadium in December. Are you ready for a White Out Penn State White Out?

More Penn State Football

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Mike Golic Jr. scouts Penn State's chances of making the College Football Playoff

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Penn State on SI is the place for Penn State news, opinion and perspective on the SI.com network. Publisher Mark Wogenrich has covered Penn State for more than 20 years, tracking three coaching staffs, three Big Ten titles and a catalog of great stories. Follow him on X (or Twitter) @MarkWogenrich.