ESPN's FPI Likes Penn State's Odds to Win 10 Games

Only one team has a better chance than Penn State to win out. Of course, it's Ohio State.

Penn State turns to November with pretty good odds to win 10 regular-season games, according to ESPN's College Football Power Index. In fact, only one team has better odds of winning out — Ohio State.

ESPN's FPI projects Penn State with a 42.3-percent chance of winning its remaining four regular-season games. Only Ohio State fares better, at 58.7 percent.

The FPI gives Georgia (33.9 percent), Clemson (32.7), Alabama (31.4), Michigan (16.8) and Tennessee (8.9) lower chances to win out, which the remaining schedule makes clear. Georgia visits Tennessee on Saturday, while Ohio State hosts Michigan on Nov. 26. The FPI also considers potential conference championship games, which obviously lower a team's chance to win out.

Meanwhile, Penn State (6-2) concludes the season with a favorable four-game stretch. The Lions visit Indiana (3-5), host Maryland (6-2), visit Rutgers (3-5) and close the regular season at home against Michigan State (3-5).

Indiana, Rutgers and Michigan State have a combined three Big Ten wins. And Penn State gets Maryland at home. The Lions are 23-2 lifetime at home against Maryland.

At 10-2, Penn State would be in contention for a New Year's 6 berth in either the Orange or Cotton bowls. It also could return to the Citrus Bowl for the second time in five years.

That might offer some comfort to a program which went 1-2 during its season-defining October stretch vs. Michigan, Minnesota and Ohio State. The Lions are playing for their fourth 10-win regular season under head coach James Franklin.

"It's tough, it really is," Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford said after the team's 44-31 loss to Ohio State last Saturday. "You put everything into this game, and when it doesn't go your way, it's going to be hard. It's just about feeling the hurt, for sure, there's nothing wrong with that, and getting back [Sunday], watching the film, getting better, then wiping it.

"... We definitely know we had our chances to win that game. It's tough, but you can't really talk about the ifs. What happened, happened. We just have to learn from it and grow."

Penn State visits Indiana at 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday. ABC will televise.

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