Scouting Penn State's Path to Victory Against Michigan

Analyst Mike Golic Jr. covers Penn State's big-play needs, the impact of sign-stealing and his pick for Saturday.

Before the 2023 season, football analyst Mike Golic Jr. suggested that this could be the year Penn State exorcises its demons in Columbus and beats Ohio State. Since that didn't happen, we now turn to Saturday's Penn State-Michigan game at Beaver Stadium.

The Lions take another crack at a top-5 team to get back into the College Football Playoff race. So what's the difference for Penn State this weekend?

"Be willing to do what you weren't able to do as much against Ohio State," Golic said. "And I know James Franklin recoiled at this question when it came from one of the reporters, but you've got to be willing to push the ball downfield and risk it a little bit. ... Sort of the same way Michigan had to cut it loose down the field to beat Ohio State, Penn State's got to be willing to push it a little bit. Because if you want to get into a ground-and-pound slugfest against Michigan, you're not going to outdo that with them. That's their domain. It would be like fighting a shark and saying, 'I want to go into the water and do it.' You're just going right into their arena."

AllPennState connected this week with Golic, the former Notre Dame offensive lineman who hosts DraftKings' GoJo podcast, to preview Saturday's top-10 matchup at Beaver Stadium. Golic assessed Penn State's offensive needs, keys to the game and, yes, the impact of Michigan's alleged in-person scouting and sign-stealing operation.

Question: Regarding that big-play offense, is Penn State capable of doing that against Michigan?

Mike Golic Jr.: I think they're more capable of doing that than probably consistently beating them on the ground. Now, unfortunately with [quarterback Drew Allar] all year, it's been the chicken or egg thing of, are they not going downfield because Drew's not as capable of that? Or is it because, receiving-personnel wise, they don't have someone who's capable of getting open at that rate? I probably lean more to the latter based on what we've seen so far. But at this point, I think whether or not you're as capable, it doesn't mean you can't go out there and try. You've got to. Again, not to reference the press conference heard around the world too much, but you've got to dial up some shots and be willing to at least give the threat of force in that area.

Question: Have you been surprised that Penn State hasn't been overly explosive on offense this season?

Golic: I wouldn't say overly surprised. While there was all this excitement about the talent that Drew brought to the table vs. what you had last year, you're still breaking in a new quarterback. There's still a lot that comes with that, and if you can get by winning games playing it a little closer to the vest, sure. I mean, coaches are for the most part risk averse by nature, and if they don't have to put themselves out there too much and don't have to put the ball at risk too much, most of them won't. So I'm not overly surprised. But I think it's been such an obvious point of emphasis for so many of us from the outside looking in, that I've been a little bit surprised that they haven't gone about addressing it a little bit more directly.

Question: From the Michigan perspective, how valid is the untested theory so far this season?

Golic Jr.: I think with them a little bit less so, just because with Michigan, so much of the appeal for people that we're going to pick them to make the playoff and win the Big Ten again was that they brought back so much of their core. We saw what happened when they faced Ohio State, we saw what happened when they got to upper echelon competition. Now, we also saw what happened when they got to TCU [in the College Football Playoff] and things got a little bit hairy there. And I'm sure the crowd that would enjoy making jokes about sign stealing would have some things to say in that regard. But I still think we've seen them in big moments in the last few seasons, and we've seen some of the guys on this current roster be a part of some of those wins, that I don't worry all that much about that.

Question: Since you brought up the sign-stealing issue, how does that factor into this game?

Golic Jr.: Listen, as someone who is a Notre Dame alum who just fell victim to a little bit of the media motivation that can come from something like this — i.e. Tyler in Spartanburg who gave Clemson and Dabo Swinney all the fuel they could have wanted to walk in and feel like they had their backs against the wall going into that game [against Notre Dame] — if I'm a Penn State player, this could have waited a while. Because I think you've seen quotes from some of the Michigan guys basically using this as a rallying cry. The thing that coaches always search for with teams at this level is trying to manufacture that chip on your shoulder. And the easiest thing in the world for Jim Harbaugh and this coaching staff to be able to chirp guys with all week is, 'They think you're only good because they think you have their signs. That's what they think of you. And so what an opportunity for you to go out and try and prove them wrong in that regard.'

Question: So what are a few advantages Penn State has in this game, and vice versa?

Golic Jr.: It's strength on strength in a way that's interesting to me, from the defensive front seven for Penn State that we know is loaded with athletes to the Michigan front on offense that's loaded with big bodies. And we saw that didn't go very well for Penn State last year with [defensive coordinator] Manny Diaz and how he wants to attack you with a variety of true pressures, simulated pressures, hitting you from all angles where it's high risk, high reward, especially against a team like Michigan that's so good at building a wall. And so I'm fascinated to see, because Manny Diaz is a really bright guy, what did he take from last year? What do they take from what they saw in this matchup last year to try and make sure that the athleticism, being a little bit lighter up front, is something that they can weaponize in getting around and creating seams up front against Michigan and challenging them in the drop-back game vs. getting caught in the wash in normal downs and distances?

This is a game where first and second down are going to be the premium downs, because if Michigan gets to sit and stay with the chains and do what they want to do under center and JJ McCarthy doesn't even have to risk the biscuit, then they're gonna be in great shape. But if Penn State can take some chances on the early downs and then get to their fun pressure stuff, because you've got Michigan in some more disadvantaged down-and-distance situations, then all of a sudden it can become advantage Penn State with the guys that you've got in that front seven. 

Question: Lastly, who do you like?

Golic: I hate to be that guy but I'm taking Michigan in this game. The reason the sign-stealing thing has become such a pressure conversation this year is because they're capable of winning a national championship. With the top-end college football powers kind of looking a little bit more human than they have in quite some time, Michigan's at a point in their life cycle with the core of this roster where they're absolutely capable of winning a national championship. And I just think that maturity in all the right player areas — between quarterback, offensive line, the backfield that they brought back, defensively the talent that they've recruited and the depth along the lines of scrimmage that's paid off for so many years — this is kind of their year to make hay. And I think for Penn State, they're still not quite at that point yet to match up with what Michigan's got.

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AllPennState is the place for Penn State news, opinion and perspective on the SI.com network. Publisher Mark Wogenrich has covered Penn State for more than 20 years, tracking three coaching staffs, three Big Ten titles and a catalog of great stories. Follow him on Twitter @MarkWogenrich. And consider subscribing (button's on the home page) for more great content across the SI.com network.