ESPN's College Football Power Index Loves Penn State

The Nittany Lions rank higher than three unbeaten teams, including Georgia, in the latest FPI.

Penn State will have to wait at least another year to make the College Football Playoff. However, if ESPN's College Football Power Index served as the selection committee, the Nittany Lions might be in this year.

In the latest edition of ESPN's FPI, Penn State ranks an eye-popping fourth with its 10-2 record, three-phase efficiency and No. 11 strength of record. The Nittany Lions rank above three undefeated Power 5 teams, including two-time defending national champ Georgia, and conference-title contenders Alabama and Texas. The FPI also still lists Ohio State above Michigan, despite its 30-24 loss in Ann Arbor, and Oregon 10 spots above Washington, which won their October meeting 36-33.

Now, to clarify: The ESPN FPI is not a traditional ranking system. It's a predictive model meant to project game outcomes based on a variety of inputs. As the FPI primer states, "FPI is not a playoff predictor, and it is not designed to identify the four teams most deserving of making the College Football Playoff." Essentially, the system is designed to predict, not assess.

As a result, Penn State ranks highly because of the teams to which it lost. Ohio State and Michigan are 1-2, giving Penn State the nation's best resume of losses. The Lions' strength of record (11), game control rank (seventh) and average win probability (ninth) elevate them above comparable top-20 teams. Penn State also ranks among the nation's most efficient teams on defense (third) and special teams (12). Even the offense, which averaged 37.2 points per game, scored highly (27th). The FPI has loved Penn State for much of the season, actually. The Lions moved up one spot to No. 4 after their 42-0 shutout of Michigan State (No. 80).

Penn State's FPI ranking offers an interesting contrast to what might happen Tuesday night. The College Football Playoff rankings selection committee will release its last top 25 before Selection Sunday. Penn State was ranked 11th last week, ahead of two-loss Ole Miss (12) and Oklahoma (13). That's important, because the three teams are in play for at-large berths in the New Year's 6 bowls. Five teams will receive at-large bids to the Fiesta, Cotton and Peach bowls, with the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion earning an automatic bid.

If it still ranks ahead of Ole Miss and Oklahoma this week, Penn State is well positioned for a New Year's 6 bowl bid. The selection committee would be hard-pressed to move either team ahead of Penn State after championship weekend, since all three have concluded their regular seasons. As a result, Penn State should have a better sense of its New Year's 6 bowl chances when the CFP rankings are released Tuesday night.

In the meantime, enjoy ESPN's FPI and how much it values Penn State.

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AllPennState is the place for Penn State news, opinion and perspective on the SI.com network. Publisher Mark Wogenrich has covered Penn State for more than 20 years, tracking three coaching staffs, three Big Ten titles and a catalog of great stories. Follow him on Twitter @MarkWogenrich. And consider subscribing (button's on the home page) for more great content across the SI.com network.