Penn State Vs. Illinois Predictions: Popping in Champaign

The Lions hit the road to face the unpredictable Illini in their Big Ten opener.

Penn State's first road game of the 2023 college football season once rang preseason alarm bells, considering Illinois harbored Big Ten West title aspirations and a defense evidently designed to meet them. It still does, as coach Bret Bielema expects his team to bury the inconsistency of its first two weeks and start fresh in Big Ten play against the Lions.

Do others still feel that way? FOX shifted its Big Noon Kickoff pregame show from Champaign to Colorado, hoping to capitalize further on the Buffaloes' 2-0 start. Bielema claimed he barely noticed, saying, "It wasn't a big deal to me to begin with." Yet, the Illinois coach also acknowledged that Penn State took care of its business in early non-conference play, while his team lost resoundingly at Kansas. "For us to do what we want to do, we've got to focus on the task at hand," Bielema said.

That task begins with stopping the Big Ten's early frontrunner in scoring offense. The Lions (50.5 points per game) are among seven Power 5 teams averaging 50 or more. What else stands out? Our Penn State-Illinois preview dives into the matchup.

No. 7 Penn State (2-0) vs. Illinois (1-1)

When: Noon ET Saturday

Where: Memorial Stadium, Champaign, Illinois

TV: FOX

Streaming: FuboTV (start your free trial)

Betting Line: Penn State is a 14.5-point favorite, per DraftKings

Series History: Penn State leads 20-6

Last Meeting: Illinois 20-18 (9OT) in 2021

Noteworthy: Penn State is 9-4 at Illinois, where James Franklin is 1-1.

The Story Line

Every week represents a new phase of quarterback Drew Allar's development. It's not like Penn State has nurtured the quarterback slowly through process, or that Allar has gone without growing pains. But he has been assured, both on field and off. Offensive line coach Phil Trautwein said after the win over West Virginia that Allar returned to the sideline to draw blitzes he was seeing. The quarterback clearly is owning his new role.

The Illini present a curious new challenge. Bielema's defense, so strong last year, is susceptible. Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels completed 21 of 29 passes for 277 yards and two touchdowns in his season debut last week. Allar, with two starts and a lot of film work on his 2023 resume, has positioned himself to take advantage of a shaky Illinois pass defense. And if Bielema and defensive coordinator Aaron Henry decide to drop players into coverage, then Allar is comfortable checking to runs — or running himself. Either way, the Penn State quarterback is positioning himself and his offense for a big-play day.

Penn State quarterback Drew Allar makes his first career road start at Illinois on Saturday :: Matthew O'Haren/USA Today Sports

Penn State Players to Watch

1. Nicholas Singleton: The running back doesn't have an offensive play of 20+ yards through two games. That's a reserved start for him. He's overdue for a big play.

2. Hunter Nourzad: Illinois has two potential NFL draft picks at defensive tackle. Penn State's center, who got a breather by playing 41 snaps against Delaware, will be the run game's fulcrum. Nourzad and the guards need to cover a lot of ground and keep those tackles occupied.

3. Abdul Carter: Tackling stats don't fully measure defensive effectiveness, but the Lions' top returning tackler has just five in two games. Feels like he's ready for a breakout, especially if Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer wants to run.

Illinois Players to Watch

1. Luke Altmyer: West Virginia and Delaware caught Penn State's defense out of position on a few plays, which the Illinois quarterback also is capable of doing. Sure, the Lions saw a dual-threat against West Virginia, but Altmyer throws a much better ball. He won't miss the coverage breakdowns that Garrett Greene did. And in two games, Altmyer has more rushing yards (139) than Singleton (117).

2. 'The Law Firm:' Defensive tackles Jer'Zhan "Johnny" Newton and Keith Randolph Jr., nicknamed 'The Law Firm,' led the nation last season in tackles for loss (27) and quarterback pressures (81) as a lineman tandem. Penn State might counter with extra protection packages using its capable tight ends. Watch for Illinois to shift Newton and Randolph across the front as well to generate leverage.

3. Isaiah Williams: Penn State fans will remember Williams quarterbacking Illinois in the last game of 2020. Now the Illini's top receiver, Williams has developed a quick bond with Altmyer, with 11 catches, though none for a touchdown.

The Predictions

Max Ralph: This is the first true chance for Penn State to flex its muscle in what is widely believed to be a potential playoff run. Drew Allar will answer the bell once again in his first road start in the conference, taking care of the ball even if he doesn’t light up the stat sheet. The ground game will do the heavy lifting. Meanwhile, the Penn State defense will have a field day on Illinois’ struggling offensive line. Just beware of Luke Altmyer’s legs, which could contribute to a few unwanted big plays. Penn State 34, Illinois 16.

Mark Wogenrich: Though Allar certainly could take over this game, we're leaning toward Singleton making his 2023 introduction. Singleton nearly broke his first carry of the season for a 94-yard touchdown but has settled into a quietly effective role since. "Quietly effective" is not Singleton's game, though. He led the Big Ten in runs of 40+ yards last season but doesn't have one longer than 14 in 2023. That's going to change. Despite those playmaking tackles, Illinois' run defense ranks last in the Big Ten (224 ypg) and has allowed a conference-high 16 carries of 10+ yards. Behind Singleton's 100-yard performance, Penn State extends its streak of scoring 30+ points to 10 straight games. Penn State 38, Illinois 17.

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FOX taking Big Noon Kickoff pregame show to Colorado instead of Penn State-Illinois

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AllPennState is the place for Penn State news, opinion and perspective on the SI.com network. Publisher Mark Wogenrich has covered Penn State for more than 20 years, tracking three coaching staffs, three Big Ten titles and a catalog of great stories. Follow him on Twitter @MarkWogenrich. And consider subscribing (button's on the home page) for more great content across the SI.com network.