The Penn State 2023 Forecast: College Football Playoff or Bust?

Picks and predictions for perhaps the most anticipated Nittany Lions season of James Franklin's tenure.

James Franklin's 10th season at Penn State could be his most compelling, with a loaded roster, a quarterback prodigy and a College Football Playoff bid within reach. This is the year, right? This is the year Penn State confronts its demons at Ohio State and/or stands up to Michigan's run game to earn a playoff invitation. That or it settles for another 10-2 season, which would be a tangible disappointment.

Here at AllPennState, we're shaking out the wrinkles of the 2023 Nittany Lions, looking at the highlights and stress points and asking the big questions — namely, how does Penn State make the College Football Playoff this season. Let's get to it. 

Question: Make the case for James Franklin having his best Penn State roster this season.

Max Ralph: It's hard to argue against the 2017 team, but it's also hard to not see the parallels between that team and the Nittany Lions in 2023. After going 11-2 last year with a Rose Bowl win, the vaunted 2022 recruiting class already has proven it can contribute to a successful team and should only get better in Year 2. This is some of the best depth Penn State has ever had, as Franklin continually has said. As long as the offense puts it together, this team will be very, very good.

Mark Wogenrich: The Lions' 2017 roster was absolutely loaded: Saquon Barkley, Miles Sanders, Mike Gesicki, Trace McSorley, Ryan Bates, DaeSean Hamilton, Jason Cabinda, Marcus Allen, Grant Haley, Blake Gillikin — not to mention a freshman class that included Tariq Castro-Fields, Sean Clifford, Yetur Gross-Matos and KJ Hamler. But this roster is deeper, with All-America candidates (Olu Fashanu, Nicholas Singleton, Theo Johnson, Chop Robinson, Abdul Carter, Kalen King) on both sides of the ball, Franklin's best defense in terms of depth and star power and playmakers nearly everywhere. Consider that the No. 3 running back, Trey Potts, had nearly 1,200 career rushing yards at Minnesota. And, of course, it includes the highest-ranked quarterback recruit, Drew Allar, of Franklin's career. Two legitimately great rosters, but the edge goes to 2023.

Question: Who is the one player on each side of the ball Penn State can’t live without?

Max Ralph: It's Kalen King on defense. The cornerback room is extremely solid throughout, but King is the only one with the legitimate ability to line up and shut down whoever is across from him. Offensively, it's probably Nick Singleton. Olu Fashanu is a good choice, but Drew Shelton showed he can step in to play a solid left tackle. Singleton provides big-play ability at any single moment like few others in college football. Kaytron Allen is also a fantastic running back, but the chance to instantly take the top off of a defense is invaluable, especially with a young quarterback.

Mark Wogenrich: Love both picks. Offensively, though, it's Allar for me — at least the Allar whom Penn State envisions as being an elite Big Ten quarterback. The concept of 2024 being Penn State's breakthrough season is compelling, but this team, with its defensive roster and Manny Diaz in charge, should be in a win-now mindset. Allar gives the Lions' offense its best chance to win now. Defense is a truly difficult pick, considering the depth everywhere. But I'll go with Abdul Carter, who might be the most versatile defensive player in college football. Carter is a 250-pound end playing outside linebacker in a defense that loves to bring pressure. Manny Diaz can send Carter off the edge, drop him in coverage and move him across the field. He’s the weapon Micah Parsons would have been with one more season. As with Allar on offense, Carter can elevate the defense to championship contention.

Question: Who is the player fans don’t know now but will in October?

Max Ralph: Safety Kevin Winston Jr. seems like the right choice here. Most of the expected contributors played significantly last season, but Winston was blocked off from playing time, rightfully so, by a Ji'Ayir Brown-led safety room. Safety is once again four deep for Penn State, but Winston has some serious talent that hasn't quite been put on display yet. Honorable mention goes to tight end Khalil Dinkins.

Mark Wogenrich: Dinkins is my pick for Penn State's breakout player of 2023. Franklin repeatedly has mentioned the redshirt sophomore tight end as a rising star in the offense. Dinkins was among the biggest movers of training camp and adds a red-zone presence that could get him some touchdown catches. An honorable mention goes to defensive end Amin Vanover, who could emerge at a very crowded position. 

Question: Which game is more must-win on the schedule? Ohio State or Michigan?

Max Ralph: Ohio State. From a pure full-season scope, beating the Buckeyes on the road while losing to a Michigan team expected to contend for a national title again probably means Penn State sniffs the Playoff conversation. From an antsy Nittany Lion faithful perspective, Franklin and Co. haven't gotten over the hurdle in Columbus in quite some time. Not to mention Ohio State seemingly has one of its weaker teams of recent memory, albeit still a very strong roster.

Mark Wogenrich: Agreed, particularly since it's first up in the stretch run to the playoff. Franklin is 0-4 at Ohio Stadium, where the last three losses have been tortured souls. In hurdles, clearing the first sets the tone for the rest of the race. Penn State has to clear this one before getting to the Michigan game, and Ohio State has been the team's toughest hurdle since joining the Big Ten.

Question: What goes wrong this time at Ohio State? Or, if you’re thinking positively, why will the Lions win in Columbus for the first time since 2011?

Max Ralph: There are two reasons for optimism against Ohio State this year: pass rush and passing offense. This all hinges on a few things going right, but Penn State should have one of the best pass-rushing units in program history. The Nittany Lions sacked CJ Stroud just twice all game while he drove the field at will a season ago. With a first-year starting quarterback in the scarlet and grey, more pressure in the pocket could be a huge difference maker. 

Simply put, there's a lot of unknown with Allar and Penn State's passing game. But it's also a simple fact that Allar has more arm talent than Clifford ever did. Being able to beat the Ohio State defense deep and through the air more consistently could change this year's outlook. Fans just need to hope Allar's growing pains get out of the way early.

Mark Wogenrich: Marvin Harrison Jr. scoring three touchdowns against the Lions' shutdown secondary would be as worst-case-scenario as it gets. That he might catch them from high school teammate Kyle McCord would be the crushing reminder that Penn State couldn't recruit either player from St. Joseph's Prep in Philadelphia. But the positive thinker will remind everyone that Penn State did land Allar out of suburban Columbus, and Kalen King from that state up north, after watching both make huge plays against the Buckeyes.

Question: Which game presents the most potential for a ‘Didn’t-see-that-loss-coming’ moment?

Max Ralph: Illinois. Bret Beilema has a reputation for building solid Big Ten teams, and he's starting to do it again in Champaign. The Fighting Illini were sneaky good a year ago and nearly derailed Michigan's eventual CFP run before it really got started. A team built in the trenches and on defense, Illinois playing at home will present a bigger challenge than some might expect. Let's just hope it doesn't take nine overtime periods this time, regardless of the outcome.

Mark Wogenrich: Since 2016, and discounting the 2020 aberration, Penn State has rented headspace in College Park, Maryland. The Lions have outscored Maryland 224-34 in their last five wins. Last year's game, a 30-0 Penn State win, was non-competitive. But hope springs eternal for the Terps, who get the Lions at home in November the week before they host Michigan. 

Question: Penn State makes the College Football Playoff if…?

Max Ralph: It beats Ohio State on the road. As stated previously, losing to Michigan probably won't hurt much. The Wolverines are in a sweet spot with the way Jim Harbaugh has stacked talent recently and will be in the Playoff race all year. Penn State gets the benefit of playing Michigan at home, so a win isn't entirely out of the question even if it might not be necessary for a CFP berth.Going into Columbus and walking out with a W puts the nation on notice.

Mark Wogenrich: It leaves Columbus healthy and with a win, hangs in a four-quarter duel with Michigan and gets the Big Ten to generate some buzz elsewhere. Even though the Lions don't play them, first-year coaches Luke Fickell (Wisconsin) and Matt Rhule (Nebraska) can help by becoming West Division contenders. Michigan State needs a revival to make that season-ending game more noteworthy. And only one of the conference champs from the Pac-12 and ACC can get a bid.

Question: Penn State goes 9-3 and slides to the Citrus Bowl if…?

Max Ralph: Allar isn't immediately the guy he can be. It's not impossible to envision Allar struggling for a good chunk of the season, which puts important games against Illinois, Iowa, Michigan or Ohio State in muddy water. The roster is well-constructed around him, so a successful season of some sort feels like a foregone conclusion. But Allar is the X-factor for reaching more lofty goals.

Mark Wogenrich: The wheels come off in October, beginning with a loss at Ohio State. There's no real week-after hangover possibility, since the Lions follow their heavyweights with Indiana (after Ohio State) and Rutgers (after Michigan). But two disappointing losses might send Penn State to Detroit for a very Black Friday game against Michigan State. This team still needs to develop those alpha personalities like Clifford and Ji'Ayir Brown, who refocused players after last year's dual losses. If that doesn't happen, a disappointing finish is possible. 

Question: And finally, three bold picks for Penn State in 2023.

Max Ralph: 1. KeAndre Lambert-Smith goes for 1,000 receiving yards. Lambert-Smith has long been a breakout candidate in Happy Valley. Now the undoubted leader of the receiving group, he has his best chance yet to meet expectations. The talent has always been there, now it's just about more consistency — maybe both from him and his quarterback

2. Dani Dennis-Sutton leads the team in sacks. For some reason, it seems like Dennis-Sutton is the forgotten man in the defensive end room as Chop Robinson and Adisa Isaac get most of the attention. Dennis-Sutton is a true freak of physical nature and will put his name on the map quickly.

3. Penn State leads the nation in turnovers. This cornerback and safety room is dangerous and full of ballhawks. Not to mention the likes of Abdul Carter and Curtis Jacobs, among many others, wreaking havoc in the open field.

Mark Wogenrich: 1. Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen each rush for 1,000 yards, with Singleton getting to 1,400. Singleton also leads the nation in plays of 40+ yards for the second consecutive season.

2. The defense breaks the school record for sacks in a season with 48. Two players (Chop Robinson, Dani Dennis-Sutton) reach double figures, and linebacker Abdul Carter finishes third behind them.

3. James Franklin will be asked about a coaching-vacancy report (Texas A&M, perhaps?) in November before his unbeaten team hosts Michigan. Franklin will respond by reiterating his love for alignment and loyalty to Penn State.

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AllPennState is the place for Penn State news, opinion and perspective on the SI.com network. Publisher Mark Wogenrich has covered Penn State for more than 20 years, tracking three coaching staffs, three Big Ten titles and a catalog of great stories. Follow him on Twitter @MarkWogenrich. And consider subscribing (button's on the home page) for more great content across the SI.com network.

Max Ralph is a Penn State senior studying Broadcast Journalism with minors in sports studies and Japanese. He previously covered Penn State football for two years with The Daily Collegian and has reported with the Associated Press and Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Follow him on Twitter (X) @maxralph_ and Instagram @mralph_59.