Penn State Football Playoff Watch: A Big Ten Title Remains in Play

The Nittany Lions are near locks to make the College Football Playoff, according to ESPN. They also could play for a Big Ten title.

Penn State Nittany Lions tight end Luke Reynolds celebrates after converting a fake punt against the Minnesota Golden Gophers during the fourth quarter at Huntington Bank Stadium. / Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

Penn State football sits on the edge of its first College Football Playoff game, one that would turn State College inside out and provide a proper sendoff for the current iteration of Beaver Stadium. The Nittany Lions (10-1) must get there, of course, with a win over Maryland on Saturday. If they do generate the first 11-win regular season under head coach James Franklin, the Nittany Lions almost certainly will host a first-round playoff game in December.

So what are the iterations for Penn State's postseason? Here's a look at the possibilities, including one more potential game between the regular season and the playoff.

How can Penn State make the Big Ten title game?

Three teams still are in contention for the spot against Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game on Dec. 7 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The math is easy: Ohio State gets a rematch with Oregon by beating Michigan on Saturday. The Buckeyes are 21-point favorites, according to DraftKings.

Penn State plays Oregon in the title game if it beats Maryland and Michigan upsets Ohio State. If both Penn State and Ohio State lose, Indiana gets the championship-game bid with a win over Purdue. And if Penn State, Ohio State and Indiana all lose, the Buckeyes go to Indianapolis.

At Penn State, Franklin said, the subject of the Big Ten title game hasn't come up yet this week.

"To be honest with you, I haven't spent a whole lot time thinking about that," Franklin said. "I'm literally completely focused on the Terps and the University of Maryland, and after that game there is a lot of other things I think that have to happen. But that is a possibility. For us, we want an opportunity to compete as many times as we possibly can this year. If that includes a conference championship game, we would be very, very excited about that opportunity.

"... All we have to do is focus on playing Maryland this week and if we're not focused on that, is then a lot of these other things that everybody else wants to talk about, then those things become questionable. Those things become challenging. Those things become different."

A Big Ten championship-game appearance matters because it could swing the playoff-seed options wildly. If Penn State would qualify and beat Oregon, it could be the No. 1 overall seed for the College Football Playoff, receive a first-round bye and potentially open quarterfinal play at the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1. But if Penn State would lose, it would test the CFP committee's attitude toward conference-championship games.

With two losses, would Penn State fall below Ohio State and/or Indiana in the final rankings? Would it remain in the 5-8 range to host a playoff game? Would it be compelled to play its first-round game on the road? Penn State wouldn't want to establish more championship-game precedent, as it did by winning the Big Ten title in 2016 and being left out of the four-team playoff.

What are Penn State's playoff chances?

The Nittany Lions virtually have locked a playoff spot. According to ESPN's College Football Playoff Index, Penn State has as 98.7-percent chance of making the 12-team field, behind only Oregon and Ohio State. Which is interesting, considering the FPI gives Penn State an 89.4-percent chance of winning out during the regular season (and potential Big Ten title game). ESPN's formula appears to consider Penn State a playoff team win or lose Saturday against the Terps.

Where would the Nittany Lions land in the playoff field? By beating Maryland and not playing for the Big Ten title, Penn State would earn one of the 6-8 seeds and host a first-round game at Beaver Stadium. One team Penn State must watch is Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish (10-1) close the regular season against USC. With a more dominant win that Penn State's 33-30 overtime escape in October, Notre Dame could climb above Penn State in the playoff field. As for projections, here are a few before the regular season's final weekend:

ESPN's staff projections largely have Penn State hosting a first-round game, though a few outliers have the Nittany Lions as the No. 9 or 10 seed and heading on the road.

The Athletic's Stewart Mandel projects Penn State as the No. 6 seed hosting the ACC's SMU. The Athletic's playoff predictor, compiled by Austin Mock, also has the Nittany Lions hosting SMU in a 6-11 game.

CBS' Brad Crawford has Penn State hosting Indiana in a unique 8-9 game, with Nittany Lions defensive coordinator Tom Allen facing his former team.

Meanwhile, CBS' Jerry Palm projects a Big Ten-SEC challenge at Beaver Stadium, with No. 7 Penn State hosting No. 10 Tennessee.

Up next

Penn State hosts Maryland at 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday in its regular-season finale. Big Ten Network will televise.

More Penn State Football

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Final takeaways from Penn State's win over Minnesota

Penn State freshman Luke Reynolds gets special teams redemption at Minnesota

The Penn State football report card: Minnesota edition

Penn State on SI is the place for Penn State news, opinion and perspective on the SI.com network. Publisher Mark Wogenrich has covered Penn State for more than 20 years, tracking three coaching staffs, three Big Ten titles and a catalog of great stories. Follow him on X (or Twitter) @MarkWogenrich.

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