Where Is Penn State Headed After a 5-0 Start?
James Franklin set Penn State's football expectations in February, when he brought the Rose Bowl trophy and several players to a Board of Trustees meeting. Quarterback Drew Allar and center Hunter Nourzad watched as Franklin paid tribute to the Nittany Lions' 11-2 season, their Rose Bowl victory and one preseason top-5 ranking. And yet, even then, Franklin pointed toward the 2023 schedule's two games that will define it.
"I want to be back here next year addressing you guys about our season as well," Franklin told the trustees. "But I would also challenge you as well as those [players] over there, we're fifth in the country, but there's two schools in our own side of the conference that are also ranked in the top 5. So we've got a tremendous challenge, which is something that we embrace."
That tremendous challenge begins now, as Penn State turns toward a bye week after starting its second consecutive season at 5-0. The Lions' 41-13 victory at Northwestern on Saturday would look fine on any other resume. The Lions outscored Northwestern 31-3 in the second half, held the Wildcats to 175 total yards and made a season-high 12 tackles for loss. In total, Penn State overwhelmed an outmanned opponent. As it should have.
And yet, the ship sprung a few leaks to be repaired. The Lions trailed 10-3 after punting on three of their first four series. They scored just one first-half touchdown for the third consecutive game. They needed another halftime chat. "The first half is gone," Franklin told his team. "Let's play really well in the second half."
Which Penn State certainly did, scoring on its firs three possessions of the half and limiting Northwestern to 19 yards on its first three. Still, the first half laid bare some chronic issues these Lions have demonstrated through the first five games. Penn State has a unique schedule now, with a bye week and a non-conference home game against Massachusetts before heading to Ohio State for the Big Ten's first spotlight game. As Franklin noted in February, the Buckeyes and Michigan were ranked higher than his team. They still are: Michigan is No. 2 in this week's AP Top 25, followed by Ohio State at No. 4 and Penn State at No. 6.
So where does Penn State stand after five weeks? And where are they headed with games forthcoming against Ohio State (on Oct. 21) and Michigan (Nov. 11)? A look at the Nittany Lions and some of the "tremendous" challenges they face.
Penn State's Offense Is an Enigma
The Lions still lead the Big Ten in scoring (40.6 points per game) and are among just nine teams nationally to have scored at least 200 points in five games. The offense hasn't turned over the ball yet this season and still averages 194 yards rushing per game. Yet it has tendencies to sleepwalk, especially early, and lacks the player that opponents fear. Ohio State and Michigan will pounce on that.
Penn State has scored just three first-half touchdowns in its last three games. Only one of those, against Illinois, came in the first quarter. And yet the Lions have won every game by double digits because they have outscored opponents 118-17 in second halves. They wore down three Big Ten teams, which is noteworthy. But they haven't jumped on teams early, which is important, too. Ohio State is not the first place to test a comeback offense.
Penn State Hasn't Turned Drew Allar Loose Yet
So far, Penn State's first-year starter has been a different quarterback at home than on the road. Consider the numbers:
- Home: 68-for-92 (73.9 percent) for 231.7 yards per game and eight TDs
- Away: 34-for-66 (51.5 percent) for 198.5 yards per game and one TD
That' not surprising, since he's working through the nuances of playing in different venues. The constant is that Allar has yet to throw an interception, leading the nation in pass attempts (158) without a turnover. He is ball secure, a central point to the offense's successes. Franklin and offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich seem to have made this a top-line component of Allar's introduction to being QB1. By contrast, Allar has just two completions of 30+ air yards. He averaged fewer than 5 air yards per completion against Iowa. In Saturday's win over Northwestern, yards after catch accounted for 116 of his 219 passing yards.
Allar also has been superb in the red zone, where he has thrown seven of his nine touchdown passes and has a 174.5 passer rating. That matters, too. Now it's time for Allar to stretch a bit. His next road game will be the biggest of the season. Allar played high school football in Medina, Ohio, less than 2 hours from Ohio State. He has one more game, against a non-conference opponent, to tap into his deep arm before visiting the Buckeyes, where that might be a factor.
The Lions' Offense Needs Another Playmaker
KeAndre Lambert-Smith is responsible for three of Penn State's four completions of 30+ yards among receivers. Only one other receiver, Liam Clifford, has caught a 30-yard pass. As a whole, they're laboring to generate separation and make tough catches. Franklin said after the Northwestern game that the receivers need to separate better at the top of their routes and run past people. Essentially, they need to help Allar more. Perhaps that's Tre Wallace when he returns from injury.
Penn State Has Inverted the Run Game
It's shocking that Penn State's two runs of 20+ yards belong to Trey Potts, its No. 3 tailback, and Beau Pribula, its No. 2 quarterback. Nicholas Singleton, who averaged 7.7 yards per carry last season, is averaging less than half that (3.82) through five games. Singleton is generating all-purpose yards, with 13 receptions through five games, but he's best as the breakaway threat. The whole unit needs to get him more free space to the second level, and Singleton must break a tackle or two.
Meanwhile, Potts has been a transfer portal gem, making key road contributions. He threw a touchdown pass at Illinois when the offense looked frustrated and scored twice at Northwestern in Kaytron Allen's absence. That Penn State has a polished, experienced back as its No. 3 underscores its team-wide depth. Speaking of depth...
James Franklin Has Built His Deepest Defense at Penn State
Coordinator Manny Diaz certainly deserves credit for deploying the unit so skillfully, but he also has been given a deep roster of talent. No Penn State defender has more than 20 tackles. Linebacker Curtis Jacobs leads with 18. The Lions lead the Big Ten with 37 tackles for loss, yet only one player (Zane Durant with 4.5) ranks among the conference's top five. Instead, 18 different players have recorded tackles for loss, and 14 have shared the team's conference-leading 20 sacks.
The Lions can roll waves of defenders at opponents, play with three ends or four linebackers, line up the cornerbacks in single coverage and rotate defenders on and off the field without blinking. Only five players have played 50 or more snaps in a game, none of them defensive linemen. And with a bye and Massachusetts scheduled for the next two weeks, this group will be fresh for Ohio State.
More on Penn State
The Penn State-Northwestern report card
Penn State 41, Northwestern 13: Breakdown from Evanston
Takeaways from Penn State's 41-13 win over Northwestern
Olu Fashanu named Outland Trophy National Player of the Week
An Ivy League kicker embraces his new role at Penn State
Why the Lions' defense feels 'unstoppable'
AllPennState is the place for Penn State news, opinion and perspective on the SI.com network. Publisher Mark Wogenrich has covered Penn State for more than 20 years, tracking three coaching staffs, three Big Ten titles and a catalog of great stories. Follow him on Twitter @MarkWogenrich. And consider subscribing (button's on the home page) for more great content across the SI.com network.
