Penn State Vs. Iowa Preview, Predictions: Playing the Favorites

Penn State is favored for the fourth straight White Out, but can Iowa pull off another upset?

Penn State is on a White Out roll, having won three straight, all as favorites. In fact, the Lions have won nine consecutive games as the home favorites dating to 2021. Beaver Stadium has been good recently for Penn State, and the White Out has been even better.

But the Iowa Hawkeyes, on a two-game win streak against Penn State, seek to end that home-favorite run Saturday, when they make their second White Out appearance. Coach Kirk Ferentz turned his 2009 visit into a huge victory (as a 9.5-point underdog) that still resonates in Penn State history.  But Iowa has a long way to go to repeat that performance 14 years later.

Penn State (3-0) Vs. Iowa (3-0)

When: 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday

Where: Beaver Stadium

TV: CBS

Streaming: FuboTV (start your free trial)

Betting Line: Penn State is a 14.5-point favorite, per DraftKings

Series History: Penn State leads 17-14

Last Meeting: Iowa 23-20 in 2021

Streaks: Iowa has won two straight over the Lions

Penn State quarterback Drew Allar :: Ron Johnson/USA Today Sports

The Story Line

Penn State and Iowa's offense are scoring at different points on the spectrum. The Lions lead the Big Ten in points per game (43.7), while Iowa ranks seventh (28.3). However, they're not far apart in what Penn State offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich considers the most important offensive stat: points per play. In two games against FBS teams, the Lions are averaging .472 points per play, actually below their 2022 season average (.499). Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes average .445 points per play, quite the upgrade over 2022 (.299).

Points per play measures offensive efficiency, the centerpiece of Yurcich's offensive strategy. Sure, he's a big-play mechanic who wants to get Nicholas Singleton loose more often and unwrap Drew Allar's big arm. But he's being practical as well. Penn State's first opponents, notably Illinois, decided that the running backs were more dangerous than the passing game. The Illini played man coverage, pushed a safety into run defense and dared Penn State to go over them. And, aside from one big Allar-to-Liam Clifford pass, the Lions chose access throws, checkdowns and screens to the backs and offensive efficiency.

Iowa, meanwhile, plays a zone-coverage defense that dares quarterbacks to throw into disguised coverages and spaces that appear open but aren't. This represents another step in Allar's maturation process. Some of those access plays might be there, but Allar must guard against throwing into windows that appear open but aren't. Further, he'll need more help from his receivers, who labored to get open against Illinois. Two receivers who could help tremendously: starter Tre Wallace, who did not play last week, and Omari Evans, who has been limited so far this season.

Penn State players to watch

Nicholas Singleton: We'll keep highlighting the sophomore back until he breaks a big run. Through three games last season, Singleton had five carries of 40+ yards. His longest this season is 16. He's valuable in other ways, notably in the red zone and passing game, but Singleton is more than due to go long.

Malik McClain: The receiver had a rough first start, dropping two first-down conversion passes and confusing at least one route. The Lions need some voltage at receiver, and McClain deserves another shot to bring it.

Coziah Izzard: The 300-pound defensive tackle returned to action against Illinois after missing the first two games. He made a quick impact with two late sacks. Izzard should get more snaps against Iowa's run game and could be the stabilizing point the line needs.

Iowa players to watch

Leshon Williams: The 5-10, 208-pound back ran for big numbers (145 yards and a TD) against Western Michigan, but Penn State fields a far more skilled defense. Still, Williams can help depressurize what quarterback Cade McNamara will face in third-and-long situation.

Logan Lee: The 6-5, 290-pound defensive tackle works in tandem with 315-pound tackle Yahya Black to crowd the line of scrimmage and shut down running backs. Penn State needs to neutralize Lee to remain on schedule offensively.

Cooper DeJean: Among the Big Ten's best cornerbacks, DeJean returned three interceptions for touchdowns last season, a school record. He's a threat to change games at any time, particularly against young quarterbacks processing new information.

The Predictions

Max Ralph: Any bad weather in the forecast could help Iowa in its upset bid, considering Penn State’s run game has left something to be desired. Penn State is the better team here, but weird things tend to happen against Iowa. This is a revenge game, too, even if no one will say it. A White Out crowd behind this stingy Lions defense helps shut down Cade McNamara like it couldn’t the last time he visited Happy Valley. Iowa is missing three top offensive players as well. Drew Allar and Co. find just enough rhythm to put together three scores, helped by Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen having their best performances of the year. Penn State 24, Iowa 15.

Mark Wogenrich: Franklin can point to Iowa's consistently conventional playlist over the past two decades, but this particular opponent is difficult to evaluate. The offense, already feeble, is missing three starters. But the quarterback/tight end combo of Cade McNamara and Erick All already have beaten Penn State with a big play (albeit for Michigan in 2021). Yet the Hawkeyes' defense-and-special-teams approach can keep any game in sight. It might work for a while Saturday, but Iowa can't muster enough points to complete the upset. Penn State 27, Iowa 13.

More on Penn State

Penn State Football on SI.com

The 2021 Penn State-Iowa game won't be a factor this week, Kirk Ferentz says

Penn State and Iowa have a wild history at Beaver Stadium

The view from Iowa City: Scouting the Iowa Hawkeyes

Flashback: In 2021, James Franklin responded to Iowa's suggestion that his team faked injuries

Penn State knows what to expect from Iowa

First look: Penn State vs. Iowa

Football's only part of Micah Parsons' success, James Franklin says

AllPennState is the place for Penn State news, opinion and perspective on the SI.com network. Publisher Mark Wogenrich has covered Penn State for more than 20 years, tracking three coaching staffs, three Big Ten titles and a catalog of great stories. Follow him on Twitter @MarkWogenrich. And consider subscribing (button's on the home page) for more great content across the SI.com network.