Penn State Vs. Northwestern Preview, Predictions: Winning Is Hard
Penn State has more on the line than scoring 30 points for the 12th straight game or covering a 27-point spread when it faces Northwestern on Saturday. The Nittany Lions are marching toward an unbeaten duel with Ohio State in three weeks but must make sure of the certainties before getting there.
Penn State coach James Franklin often shows his team clips of college football upsets to remind it that winning is difficult. This week's presentation no doubt included Northwestern's overtime upset of Minnesota, a game the Wildcats trailed by 21 points entering the fourth quarter.
That sort of thing keeps Franklin awake at night. What else does? Perhaps his 2-3 career record against Northwestern, which includes losses at Ryan Field in 2012 (with Vanderbilt) and 2015 (with a sanctioned Penn State team). Our preview and predictions for Saturday's Penn State-Northwestern game.
No. 6 Penn State (4-0) vs. Northwestern (2-2)
When: Noon ET Saturday
Where: Ryan Field, Evanston, Illinois
TV: Big Ten Network
Streaming: FuboTV (start your free trial)
Betting Line: Penn State is a 27-point favorite, per DraftKings
Series History: Penn State leads 15-5
Last Meeting: Penn State 17-7 in 2022
Noteworthy: Penn State is 14-1 in games played on Sept. 30. The loss was to Wisconsin 17-9 in 1995
The Penn State-Northwestern Story Line
The Lions spent the last two weeks settling scores — first against Illinois, for the nine-overtime debacle in 2021, and then against Iowa for this. Last week they played a prime-time game before the second-largest crowd in Beaver Stadium history, which stood down a tropical storm to watch a shutout. And now this.
Penn State visits Northwestern for an 11 a.m. local kick. The Wildcats are averaging 17,500 fans per home game at Ryan Field. Tickets are $20 from online resellers. Franklin cut the music at practice. The Wildcats rank last in the Big Ten in four statistical categories, including rushing offense and rushing defense. They're playing for an interim staff that might not be around in two months. And yet they stunned Minnesota last week in a game they trailed twice by 21 points.
So instead of finding a revenge story, Franklin went big picture this week. "Are we internally motivated or are we externally motivated?" he asked. The Lions won't make the playoff losing games like this. They played a sordid offensive game (albeit in horrific weather) against Northwestern last year, turning over the ball five times with four fumbles. Against a functioning offense, that would have been a loss. "Winning is hard," Franklin said after that one. And yet the Lions improved to 5-0, the same opportunity they have Saturday. Different team, sure, but Penn State has to manufacture its own fire to avoid getting into a slog in Evanston.
Penn State Players to Watch
Nicholas Singleton: Copy/paste on the Singleton big-play watch. It's Singleton's turn to start, and this is the perfect week for a 22-carry, 155-yard type of game from him. Singleton admitted that he's getting a little impatient at not having a 20-yard run yet. He'll get there. The key is avoiding negative plays along the way.
Malik McClain: After making his first Penn State start vs. Illinois, McClain played a reserve role against Iowa with a season-low 15 snaps. McClain is among the Lions' potential deep threats at receiver, so the offensive gameplan with him will be interesting to watch unfold against Northwestern.
Johnny Dixon: The Wildcats have some skilled receivers who will deliver a nice test for Penn State's secondary. Dixon and the cornerbacks will get plenty of work in pass coverage, and watch for Dixon on some blitz packages as well.
Northwestern Players to Watch
Ben Bryant: The quarterback is starting for his third program in three years, following Cincinnati and Eastern Michigan, and is fresh off a prolific game. Bryant threw for 396 yards and 4 TDs in an OT win over Minnesota, just the performance Penn State's defense needed to grab its attention.
Bryce Kirtz: The Big Ten's leader in receiving yards per game (91.3) is going to get his catches. He made 10 against Minnesota last week, one for an 80-yard score. Kirtz will make the Lions' secondary work.
Xander Mueller: Northwestern's defensive player to watch is the linebacker with 4 TFLs and an interception. He's mobile and can make stuff happen.
The Predictions
Max Ralph: What Northwestern did last week against Minnesota was pretty impressive, but the Gophers aren’t cut from the same cloth they used to be. Penn State just manhandled what should be a top team in the Big Ten West, so things will be no different with one of its lower-tier members. I’d like to see Drew Allar air it out a bit more this week. But even if he doesn’t, the offense will operate smoothly. Penn State’s defense keeps its turnover streak rolling with three or more this weekend. Penn State 40, Northwestern 7.
Mark Wogenrich: Northwestern will land some of the big swings it takes. What does it have to lose? The Wildcats proved as much against Minnesota in overtime. They'll throw into, across and perhaps over Penn State's defense, take big offensive chances and try to shock the Lions into mistakes. It won't be surprising if Northwestern scores the most points against Penn State this season so far. It also won't surprise if the Lions cover 27 points. Penn State 45, Northwestern 17.
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AllPennState is the place for Penn State news, opinion and perspective on the SI.com network. Publisher Mark Wogenrich has covered Penn State for more than 20 years, tracking three coaching staffs, three Big Ten titles and a catalog of great stories. Follow him on Twitter @MarkWogenrich. And consider subscribing (button's on the home page) for more great content across the SI.com network.
