Penn State Vs. UMass Preview, Predictions
Penn State hosts an interesting opponent for Homecoming on Saturday, when Massachusetts visits Beaver Stadium. The Lions will wear their "Generations of Greatness" uniforms for the game, their latest non-conference meeting since 2014. What does Penn State have to gain as a six-touchdown favorite over the Minutemen? Actually, more than you might expect, Penn State coach James Franklin said.
Penn State (5-0) vs. UMass (1-6)
When: 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday
Where: Beaver Stadium
TV: Big Ten Network
Streaming: FuboTV (Start your free trial)
Betting Line: Penn State is a 41.5-point favorite, according to DraftKings
Series History: Penn State leads 1-0
Last Meeting: Penn State 48-7 in 2014
The Story Line
Franklin and Massachusetts' Don Brown meet Saturday for the first time as head coaches, the next layer to their long history together. Penn State fans will remember Brown as the Michigan defensive coordinator who tormented Penn State in 2016 (49-10) and 2018 (42-7). Franklin also tormented Brown, winning their three other matchups by scoring a combined 97 points.
But Franklin and Brown also have worked together, serving on Maryland's staff together in 2009-10 as offensive and defensive coordinators. Even then. Brown exhausted Franklin with his "unorthodox" defensive system. In fact, Franklin said, those sessions informed how he structured practices as a head coach. Brown's defense were difficult to practice against, Franklin said, because Brown really didn't run a base defense. That made installing offenses difficult, as Franklin likes more structure.
"It's like, on this day you're going to get this from the offense and on this day you're going to get this from the defense," Franklin said, "and that was always a challenge with Don, because Don — that is his base. It's like, okay, we're trying to run it against a base defense. Well, he doesn't really have a traditional base."
However, Brown is known for being a strong teacher who articulates his system well and gets buy-in from players. As a result, Franklin expects some "challenging" defensive looks as usual from Brown. Even more, Franklin anticipates his defense getting a workout from a Massachusetts offense that averages nearly 400 yards per game. Franklin called UMass "maybe the most explosive team we've played this year." The Minutemen are tied for second nationally in plays of 50+ yards (eight). Penn State has one.
"These guys have got our attention and, specifically on the offensive side of the ball, we think [they] are doing a great job," Franklin said.
Penn State Players to Watch
Harrison Wallace III: Franklin called the receiver critical toward energizing the big-play offense. Wallace, who caught a team-high seven passes against West Virginia, hasn't caught a pass in the last three games. He played limited snaps against Illinois and Iowa and missed the Northwestern game. Franklin said he's good to go now.
Vega Ioane: If left guard JB Nelson, injured at Northwestern, can't play, Ioane likely will make his first start. Ioane essentially is Penn State's third-team guard, a test of the offensive line's depth. The Lions have other options, though, like shifting center Hunter Nourzad to guard (which he played last year) and starting Nick Dawkins at center. Franklin even mentioned that right tackle Caedan Wallace has been working at guard. These are considerations for next week's game at Ohio State as well.
Kaytron Allen: If the starting rotation at running back continues, it's Allen's turn this week. The Lions need to establish some run-game authority. Allen certainly could do that against a Massachusetts defense allowing 223.7 yards rushing per game.
UMass Players to Watch
Taisun Phommachanh: Franklin said he recruited the quarterback, who chose Clemson instead. Phommachanh then went to Georgia Tech before transferring to UMass this season. He's completing 65.7 percent of his passes, something Franklin noted, and has run for two touchdowns.
Anthony Simpson: The receiver, an Arizona transfer, averages 17 yards per catch and also is a run threat on sweeps. He'll provide Penn State's secondary with a good workout before Ohio State.
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams: Another transfer (from Rutgers), Lynch-Adams ranks among the nation's top 25 running backs in yards per game (94.4). He also has more carries of 20+ yards (5) than Penn State (2) this season.
The Predictions
Max Ralph: UMass has one of the most porous defenses in the country, allowing 452.1 yards per game. Pair that with a Penn State defense allowing the fewest yards to opponents in the nation, and you've got all the makings of a true blowout. Penn State's offense should have its way throughout the afternoon. I'm banking on UMass to find a hole somewhere for a lone score, as it does have one of the most explosive offenses this season and a skill group James Franklin spoke highly of. Penn State 52, UMass 7.
Mark Wogenrich: Penn State is 5-0 against the spread this season, but any number of 40+ points is difficult to cover, particularly in the rainy cold that's projected. Nevertheless, the Lions will take that number to 6-0. Having said that, some other metrics matter in this game. The Lions should limit starters' snap counts, particularly on defense, and spread the carries among their backs. Load management has become a pejorative but absolutely applies here. Team health is far more important than winning ATS with Ohio State approaching. Penn State 56, UMass 7.
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AllPennState is the place for Penn State news, opinion and perspective on the SI.com network. Publisher Mark Wogenrich has covered Penn State for more than 20 years, tracking three coaching staffs, three Big Ten titles and a catalog of great stories. Follow him on Twitter @MarkWogenrich. And consider subscribing (button's on the home page) for more great content across the SI.com network.
