Penn State Playoff Projections After College Football's Week 3

The Nittany Lions fell in the rankings following their bye week but retained their playoff presence.

Penn State running back Nicholas Singleton runs into the end zone for a touchdown during the third quarter against the Bowling Green Falcons at Beaver Stadium. / Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

How did Penn State lose ground in the college football rankings after not even playing last week? Blame it on the recency bias of voters, both coaches and writers, who grade what they see. Out of sight, slip in the rankings. Not a big deal, especially in September.

Now, the No. 10 Nittany Lions aren't likely to move many needles as a 49-point favorite over Kent State at home Saturday. But, as in golf, Penn State can't win the tournament this weekend but it certainly could lose it. The Nittany Lions should end the non-conference schedule as continuing playoff contenders before hosting Illinois in its Big Ten opener.

Here, then, is our weekly look at Penn State's College Football Playoff projections. For context, here's where Penn State stood after its Week 2 win over Bowling Green. Some interesting first-round games are projected, including a trip to (yes) South Bend.

The Nittany Lions have a 46.8-percent chance of making the College Football Playoff, which is down from 54 percent last week, according to the ESPN College Football Power Index. Wins by Tennessee, Miami and Missouri likely clouded Penn State's percentage, which will waver during the season. As a result, perhaps, ESPN's Kyle Bonagura culled Penn State from his playoff field and sent it to the Citrus Bowl against Missouri. ESPN's Mark Schlabach, meanwhile, has Penn State hosting Ole Miss as the No. 8 seed.

Brad Crawford of CBS Sports places Penn State in the 8-9 game as a road opponent against Tennessee, which gets Oklahoma in a newly minted SEC game Saturday.

Jerry Palm, also of CBS Sports, sends Penn State on the road to Iowa State as a No. 10 seed.

Action Network's Brett McMurphy, who conducts weekly deep dives into the playoff and bowl fields, sends Penn State to Ole Miss as the No. 10 seed. McMurphy has the SEC (five teams) and Big Ten (four) comprising 75 percent of CFP field.

At The Athletic, Stewart Mandel (subscription required) skips the Penn State-SEC matchup in favor of an intra-conference playoff game: No. 10 Penn State visiting No. 7 Oregon for a first-round game in Eugene.

USA Today's Erick Smith is pretty high on Penn State, seeding the Nittany Lions sixth and predicting that they will win two playoff games. First up: a home game against Utah in a rematch of the 2023 Rose Bowl.

College Football News has a surprising gem: No. 10 Penn State visiting No. 7 Notre Dame, which evidently rebounds from its home loss to NIU to sweep the remainder of its schedule.

At On3, Andy Staples has Penn State as another 10 seed and predicts a road game at Tennessee. He did take a wait-and-see tone, however: "We swear the interesting part of Penn State’s schedule will begin sooner than it did in the Big Ten East days, but it still won’t be until October," Staples writes.

Penn State has to get to October somehow, though. The next step is Saturday's game against Kent State. Kickoff is at 3:30 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network.

More Penn State Football

Penn State's major priority during the bye week? Addressing the penalties issue

Why is Penn State playing Kent State this week? It's a long story

Penn State schedules first night game of 2024 season

Penn State on SI is the place for Penn State news, opinion and perspective on the SI.com network. Publisher Mark Wogenrich has covered Penn State for more than 20 years, tracking three coaching staffs, three Big Ten titles and a catalog of great stories. Follow him on X (or Twitter) @MarkWogenrich.