Penn State Put on Upset Alert Vs. SMU in the College Football Playoff

Some college football experts consider the Nittany Lions to be ripe for an upset at home Saturday against the SMU Mustangs.

Penn State football coach James Franklin looks on from the sideline during the first quarter against the Maryland Terrapins at Beaver Stadium. / Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Penn State is the across-the-board favorite over SMU for Saturday's first-round College Football Playoff game at Beaver Stadium. The Nittany Lions lead with two All-Americans (Tyler Warren and Abdul Carter) and a home-field advantage that SMU coach Rhett Lashlee noted this week.

However, Penn State also enters playoff weekend as a popular upset pick among the four first-round games. So says CBS college football writer Shehan Jeyarajah, who ranked the games in terms of upset potential. Jeyarajah considers Penn State the most likely favorite to go down in Round 1.

"Penn State had a serious case for No. 1 in the country heading into the final quarter of the Big Ten Championship Game," Jeyarajah writes at CBS. "However, the matchup between these two teams is far closer than many would think."

Jeyarajah writes that SMU's offense, led by playmaking quarterback Kevin Jennings, could seize the advantage if the game trends toward a shootout. He also suggests that SMU has more playmakers in general, particularly since Penn State quarterback Beau Pribula entered the transfer portal, leaving offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki without one "toy" at his disposal.

"The Nittany Lions need the game to stay low-scoring and defense-first," writes Jeyarajah. "If points start to accumulate, SMU can pull off a big upset.”

Elsewhere, The Athletic's Stewart Mandel writes that he's picking SMU over Penn State as well. Importantly, Mandel writes that Jennings is a "baller who can handle that road environment" and has the advantage over Penn State quarterback Drew Allar. "I'd rather ride with Jennings," Mandel concludes (subscription).

Over at the sports-betting site VSiN, several handicappers like SMU against the spread or even outright in this first-round playoff game against Penn State According to VSiN's College Football Playoff Betting Guide, Penn State remains the betting pick, with 76 percent of analysts favoring the Nittany Lions. However, seven of the 29 handicappers polled like SMU. VSiN also expects points to be scored at Beaver Stadium.

"It's also pretty fair to expect some points," VSiN's Zach Cohen writes in the preview guide. "The Over was 8-5 in the 13 games the Mustangs played this year, and it has also hit in each of the last four games that the Nittany Lions have played. Also, while Penn State might be able to come away with more key stops than SMU, it’s hard to imagine the Nittany Lions completely shutting down Jennings and Co. We saw in the Mustangs loss to the Tigers that you can only keep this offense down for so long. And the Nittany Lions just put 37 on a good Ducks defense. Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki will feel good about his team doing the same against the Ponies."

And finally, the ESPN's Bill Connelly, architect of the network's SP+ rankings system, gives Penn State a win probability of 62.3 percent over SMU. Perpare your data to dispute that.

SMU coach Rhett Lashlee's priority

The Mustangs built themselves a high wall to climb in the ACC championship game, falling behind Clemson 24-7 in the first half and 31-14 in the second half before staging a magnificent comeback to tie the game with 16 seconds remaining. That the Tigers kicked a field goal as time expired still stings SMU and left its head coach with a priority for Saturday's game at Penn State.

"We always want to get off to a fast start, but more than anything we just can’t get off to a slow start," Lashlee said. "You talk about Clemson, that first quarter really put us way behind the eight-ball. The first quarter is big. Now we're on the road [against] 106,000-plus [fans], the atmosphere is going to be electric and they're going to have all the momentum and adrenaline behind them. So it's going to be important that, yes, we'd love to start fast but also to just hang in there and get through that initial surge once the game starts and be in a good, competitive game."

Penn State hosts SMU at noon Saturday at Beaver Stadium in the first round of the College Football Playoff. Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET on TNT.

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