Penn State's Path to the Big Ten Championship Game

The Nittany Lions don't control their destiny in the Big Ten — but they do have one.

The Penn State Nittany Lions take the field against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. / Alex Martin/Journal and Courier / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

If you assumed Penn State was eliminated from the Big Ten Championship Game, it's time to reconsider. The Nittany Lions don't have a direct, or even gently curved, road to Indianapolis for the Dec. 7 title game. But they can get there. Here's how.

First, an explanation of the Big Ten's tiebreaking procedures, which are different this year because the conference expanded to 18 teams and eliminated divisions. The Big Ten released a three-page document of legal writing that reads convolutedly but includes six basic tiebreakers.

1. The tied teams will be compared based on head-to-head matchups during the regular season.

2. The tied teams will be compared based on record against all common conference opponents.

3. The tied teams will be compared based on record against common opponents with the best conference record and proceeding through the common conference opponents based on their order of finish within the conference standings.

4. The tied teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents.

5. The representative will be chosen based on the highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team Rating Score metric) following the regular season.

6. The representative will be chosen by random draw among the tied teams conducted by the Commissioner or designee.

After that, the tiebreaking procedures dive deep, particularly if multiple teams are tied. And that's what Penn State wants, in certain circumstances. So what the Nittany Lions need are at least one final-weekend upset (Go Blue!) or the Buckeyes to win out and Washington to come through. It's quite a needle to thread, but it's possible.

What Penn State needs to reach the Big Ten title game

1. Win out. Obviously. Penn State needs to be 11-1 overall and 8-1 in the Big Ten. Penn State has two games remaining: at Minnesota on Saturday and the home finale against Maryland on Nov. 30.

2. Ohio State to beat Indiana, then lose to Michigan. In this case, Penn State likely would be the No. 2 seed above Indiana based on opponent winning percentage. The title game: Penn State vs. Oregon, even if the Ducks lose to Washington on Nov. 30.

3. Ohio State to win out, Washington to beat Oregon. This scenario triggers a four-team collection of one-loss teams. Penn State would win tiebreakers over Oregon (loss to Washington) and Indiana (opponent winning percentage). Thus, Penn State gets its rematch with Ohio State in the Big Ten title game.

A few notes

Yes, the window is narrow and primarily relies on wins from Michigan over Ohio State or Washington over Oregon in the final weekend.

An Indiana win over Ohio State on Saturday essentially eliminates Penn State from Big Ten championship-game contention, even if the Hoosiers lose to Purdue in the final weekend. In that case, both Indiana and Oregon still would have wins over Ohio State, a key point to any tiebreaker. Penn State fans should be rooting for the Buckeyes on Saturday if they want to get to Indy.

The three- and four-team tiebreakers could get to comparisons of opponent winning percentages, which are impossible to determine with two weeks left in the regular season. But generally, Penn State should have a winning-percentage edge over Indiana should that tiebreaker come into question. But that scenario needs to include an Indiana loss to Ohio State.

Why should Penn State want to reach the Big Ten title game? It's a chance to claim not only the conference title but also potentaially the No. 1 overall seed in the College Football Playoff. At the very least, Penn State would be No. 2 with a championship-game win. If they lose, the Nittany Lions still should be situated to host a playoff game at Beaver Stadium.

Before getting to that, however, Penn State's first order is a win at Minnesota. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday at Huntington Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. The Golden Gophers (6-4) lost 26-19 at Rutgers last Saturday, ending a four-game win streak. Minnesota has lost twice at home this season, to North Carolina and Iowa.

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