Penn State's Path to the Big Ten Championship Game

The Nittany Lions don't control their destiny in the Big Ten — but they do have one.

The Penn State Nittany Lions take the field against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. / Alex Martin/Journal and Courier / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

This story was updated Nov. 19, when the Big Ten released the possible scenarios for conference-championship qualification.

If you assumed Penn State was eliminated from the Big Ten Championship Game, it's time to reconsider. The Nittany Lions don't have a direct, or even gently curved, road to Indianapolis for the Dec. 7 title game. But they can get there. Here's how.

The Big Ten has released a series of 10 possible scenarios involving four contenders for the conference title game. The Big Ten noted that Oregon has clinched a spot in the 2024 title game Lucas Oil Stadium. Penn State, Ohio State and Indiana remain in contention to face the Ducks in Indianapolis.

Of the 10 scenarios that the Big Ten has modeled, Penn State can reach the title game through two of them, both of which require the Nittany Lions to win their final regualr-season games against Minnesota and Maryland.

What Penn State needs to reach the Big Ten title game

Scenario 1

• Oregon finishes 9-0 or 8-1

• Penn State finishes 8-1 (lost to Ohio State)

• Indiana and Ohio State finish 7-2 (Indiana lost to Ohio State and Purdue, Ohio State lost to Oregon and Michigan)

Outcome: Oregon faces Penn State in the Big Ten title game. Oregon earns No. 1 seed based on its win over Ohio State

In this case, Penn State fans must root for Ohio State to beat Indiana and then lose to Michigan on Nov. 30. And Indiana has to lose its final two regular-season games against Ohio State and Purdue.

The other possibility requires more math:

Scenario 2

• Oregon finishes 9-0

• Indiana and Penn State finish 8-1 (both lost to Ohio State)

• Ohio State finishes 7-2 (losses to Oregon and Michigan)

Outcome: Oregon is the unbeaten No. 1 seed. The No. 2 seed will be determined between Penn State and Indiana, based on the highest cumulative conference winning percentage of their conference opponents.

In this scenario, Penn State needs Ohio State to beat Indiana and then lose to Michigan. After that, the records tiebreaker currently favors Penn State. The Nittany Lions' Big Ten opponents currently are 28-38 for a .424 winning percentage. Indiana's Big Ten opponents currently are 23-42 for a .354 winning percentage. That could change, though Penn State and Indiana have five common opponents, so the Nittany Lions are in the driver's seat.

The remaining Big Ten title game scenarios

The conference modeled eight other possibilites (read them here), and Penn State is excluded from every one. That includes a four-way tie in which Penn State, Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana all are 8-1. In that case, here's what happens, according to the Big Ten analysis:

Indiana and Oregon earn berths due to win vs. common opponent ranked highest in standings (OSU; IND and ORE def. OSU, OSU def. PSU). Indiana would be No. 1 seed and Oregon would be No. 2 seed (of common opponents that IND and ORE lost to, WASH ranked higher than PUR in conference standings; IND def. WASH and WASH def. ORE).

Big Ten football tiebreaking scenarios

Before the season, the Big Ten released its scenarios of tiebreaking procedures, which are different this year because the conference expanded to 18 teams and eliminated divisions. The Big Ten issued a three-page document of legal writing that reads convolutedly but includes six basic tiebreakers.

1. The tied teams will be compared based on head-to-head matchups during the regular season.

2. The tied teams will be compared based on record against all common conference opponents.

3. The tied teams will be compared based on record against common opponents with the best conference record and proceeding through the common conference opponents based on their order of finish within the conference standings.

4. The tied teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents.

5. The representative will be chosen based on the highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team Rating Score metric) following the regular season.

6. The representative will be chosen by random draw among the tied teams conducted by the Commissioner or designee.

After that, the tiebreaking procedures dive deep, particularly if multiple teams are tied. And that's what Penn State wants, in certain circumstances. So what the Nittany Lions need are at least one final-weekend upset (Go Blue!) or the Buckeyes to win out and Washington to come through. It's quite a needle to thread, but it's possible.

Why should Penn State want to reach the Big Ten title game? It's a chance to claim not only the conference title but also potentaially the No. 1 overall seed in the College Football Playoff. At the very least, Penn State would be No. 2 with a championship-game win. If they lose, the Nittany Lions still should be situated to host a playoff game at Beaver Stadium.

Before getting to that, however, Penn State's first order is a win at Minnesota. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday at Huntington Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. The Golden Gophers (6-4) lost 26-19 at Rutgers last Saturday, ending a four-game win streak. Minnesota has lost twice at home this season, to North Carolina and Iowa.

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