Penn State's Playoff Chances Rise, According to ESPN

The Nittany Lions have upgraded their College Football Playoff odds in 2024, but that could change quickly.

Penn State coach James Franklin locks arms with players as they head onto the field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum for a game against the USC Trojans. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Penn State rides into the season's second half with an unbeaten record, a No. 3 ranking in the AP Top 25 and a rising algorithmic chance to make the College Football Playoff — according to ESPN, at least.

The Nittany Lions (6-0) hold a 73.5-percent chance of making the College Football Playoff's first 12-team field, according to ESPN's College Football Power Index. That's up significantly from the beginning of the season, when Penn State entered the opener at West Virginia with a 58.8-percent chance to make its first playoff appearance. The FPI number is from Oct. 21 and changes daily. Penn State has the sixth-best odds to make the playoff, according to ESPN's FPI model.

However, Penn State isn't entirely secure in the playoff projections. The Nittany Lions face a critical two-game stretch, beginning Saturday at Wisconsin. The Badgers have won three straight games by a combined score of 117-16 and will host Penn State in prime-time. After that, the Nittany Lions return home for the first time in four weeks to face Ohio State.

Penn State also has a bit of a schedule issue. The Nittany Lions rank 70th in strength of schedule, according to the FPI, although their remaining schedule ranks 16th. If Penn State loses twice over the season's second half, that could put the team on the playoff bubble.

As ESPN's Bill Connelly wrote, "If the Nittany Lions fall to both the Badgers and Buckeyes, their playoff odds will look very, very different in two weeks."

Penn State ranks ninth in ESPN'S FPI, which isn't a traditional ranking of performance but rather a predictive model. And the model gives the Nittany Lions just a 7.2-percent chance of winning out during the regular season, including the Big Ten title game. Ohio State, the No. 1 team in ESPN's FPI, has a 35.5 percent chance of winning out. The Nittany Lions will host the Buckeyes on Nov. 2.

For Penn State, expecations are in sight but out of mind.

“We don’t spend any time talking about those things. We just focus on trying to get better,” Penn State coach James Franklin said during the bye week. “And I think so far our guys have done a pretty good job of that, and we’re gonna have to do that again this week because coming up we’re gonna be going on the road, night game in another tough environment [at Wisconsin]. … Really good program, well-coached, so we’re gonna need to take another step this week because these road games are challenging.”

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Penn State on SI is the place for Penn State news, opinion and perspective on the SI.com network. Publisher Mark Wogenrich has covered Penn State for more than 20 years, tracking three coaching staffs, three Big Ten titles and a catalog of great stories. Follow him on X (or Twitter) @MarkWogenrich.