Penn State Vs. Illinois: Preview, Predictions, How to Watch

The Nittany Lions host Illinois in a prime-time duel of top-20 teams at Beaver Stadium.

Penn State quarterback Drew Allar warms up as offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki watches before the Kent State game. / Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Penn State tests its 3-0 start and No. 9 ranking against a unique opponent Saturday night, when No. 19 Illinois visits Beaver Stadium for a prime-time matchup. The Nittany Lions mostly eased through their non-conference schedule (save for a lapsed defensive first half against Bowling Green) and reach the Big Ten season with confidence and momentum.

But Illinois already has a Big Ten win on its resume, an overtime victory at then-ranked Nebraska that pushed its record to 4-0 for the first time since 2011. The Illini face back-to-back night games in two of the Big Ten's most energetic environments, something coach Bret Bielema referenced this week.

"Obviously we did a lot of good things [last] Friday night in Lincoln, but this will be taking it to a whole other level," Bielema said.

What to make of the early top-20 showdown at Beaver Stadium? Our preview and predictions for Penn State-Illinois. And, oh yeah, Penn State coach James Franklin should be happy that his team is playing its Big Ten opener at home for the first time since 2015.

No. 9 Penn State (3-0) Vs. No. 19 Illinois (4-0)

• When: 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday

• Where: Beaver Stadium

• TV: NBC

• Streaming: Peacock

• Betting line: Penn State is an 18-point favorite, according to DraftKings

• Series history: Penn State leads 21-6

• Last meeting: Penn State 20-13 in 2023

RELATED: Penn State begins a crucial 40-day stretch that will define it season

The Story Line

Is it too early, or too extreme, to call quarterback Drew Allar's development the most important change of Penn State's 2024 team? Allar has been exceptional through three games, leading an offense that has been far more explosive and entertaining to watch. Having said that, it's instructive to remember that Allar was a first-year quarterback in 2023 working within the confines of a system that asked him to protect the ball and limit turnovers. He achieved that task. Now, coordinator Andy Kotelnicki is asking him to build on that experience and accept more risk. And Allar is thriving.

Allar leads the nation in adjusted passing yards per attempt (14.6), ranks second in actual yards per attempt (12.6) and efficiency rating (218.3) and ranks fifth in ESPN's quarterback rating (90.3). He also has a deeper collection of passing assets, notably tight end Tyler Warren, receivers Trey Wallace and Omari Evans and running back Nicholas Singleton, whose receiving game has improved dramatically. "I would definitely say that my confidence is at an all-time high since I’ve been here," Allar said.

That's important, since Penn State hasn't faced a pass defense yet like Illinois. The Illini play press-man coverage, shadow receivers and stop drives. They have made seven interceptions, at least one in each game, and rank 29th in pass efficiency defense. Illinois might not have the pass-rush presence of last season, but this secondary is instinctive and aggressive and will force Allar from his comfort zone. The quarterback also called Illinois' secondary "super patient" and skilled at disguising coverages. "They've got a good scheme and they pair that with good players," Allar said of the Illinois defense. The group will test the receivers in fighting off the line of scrimmage, getting to their route depths and making contested catches. Penn State's passing game could be the differentiator in this game.

Penn State wide receiver Omari Evans runs after making a catch in the first half against Kent State. / Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Penn State Players to Watch

Omari Evans: Through 10 games of the 2023 season, Evans' longest catch was 5 yards. Since then, the receiver has six receptions of 25+ yards, including four this season. Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki is deploying Evans as the deep threat Franklin had hoped Evans would become.

Jaylen Reed: How will Penn State deploy its versatile safety against the Illinois offense, which features two prolific receivers and a 250-pound running back? Reed prefers the hybrid "Lion" position but, without starting safety KJ Winston the field, he might have to play more deep coverage against the Illini passing game.

Tony Rojas: The linebacker, who took a big hit in the opener at West Virginia, looked a bit limited last week against Kent State, making two solo tackles. Penn State needs Rojas to be sturdy against 6-3, 250-pound running back Kaden Feagin.

Illinois Players to Watch

Luke Altmyer: This game pits two of the Big Ten's most-improved quarterbacks. Altmyer arrives in State College after a four-touchdown game against Nebraska and is the nation's only quarterback with a 10/0 touchdown-interception ratio. Last year, Penn State intercepted Altmyer four times. "I think he's one of the more-improved players in college football right now," Franklin said.

Pat Bryant: The senior is a touchdown machine, with an FBS-leading six in four games. Penn State will have a difficult time leaning its coverage toward Bryant, since fellow receiver Zakhari Franklin has 21 catches. And don't let them near the red zone: the Illini are 16-for-16, with 11 touchdowns, on red-zone possessions.

Gabe Jacas: The outside linebacker leads Illinois with four tackles for loss and has forced two fumbles. He's the player Penn State must keep out of the backfield.

The Predictions

Mark Wogenrich: While expecting Allar and Kotelnicki to take a bow after this one, the defense raises some yellow flags. Injuries have been disruptive to the group's lineup and depth, prompting some position shifts and freshmen call-ups. The flags don't rise to red yet, primarily because its top players (Reed, tackle Zane Durant, end Abdul Carter, linebacker Kobe King) are playing high-level football. But could Illinois and Altmyer exploit a few weak spots? Expect points in this game. Penn State 35, Illinois 27

Daniel Mader: The first conference game for Penn State will be a good challenge. However, the Nittany Lions have clicked enough through their first three games, especially offensively, that an Illinois upset in Beaver Stadium seems highly unlikely. A talented Fighting Illini defense could hold Penn State to its lowest point total the season so far (33 points or less), but that still won’t be enough to keep it close. Penn State 27, Illinois 13

Sam Woloson: Quarterback Luke Altmyer has been sharp and efficient for Illinois, but Penn State’s defense will be a new challenge for him. If the Nittany Lions continue their strong pass rush, they can force Altmyer into one or two mistakes that could prove costly. Similarly, Penn State’s offense hasn’t played a defense as solid as Illinois'. I think it’s going to come down to which team can stay ahead of the sticks and capitalize on scoring opportunities — with Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen in the backfield and a more dynamic Drew Allar, plus the home field advantage, I think Penn State will make enough plays to get the ranked win. Penn State 30, Illinois 17

More Penn State Football

How Penn State is preparing to face unbeaten Illinois

Bret Bielema has a long, wild history at Penn State

A good start for Penn State's offensive line. Illinois will test that

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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