Penn State-Michigan Prediction: Opportunity Awaits

The Lions visit Ann Arbor confident their best football is ahead of them.

Michael Phelps, the most successful Olympic athlete ever with 23 gold medals, will serve as Michigan's honorary captain for Saturday's game against Penn State.

Perhaps the Lions should text former safety Mark Rubin, who once beat Phelps in a swim race when they were kids.

In the meantime, Penn State heads to Ann Arbor feeling confident and assertive that it's best football is coming. Will that be enough to beat Michigan?

No. 10 Penn State (5-0) vs. No. 5 Michigan (6-0)

• When: Noon ET Saturday
• Where: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Mich.
• TV: FOX
• Streaming: FuboTV (Start your free trial)
• Betting Line: Michigan is a 7-point favorite per SI Sportsbook
• Series History: Michigan leads 15-10
• Last Meeting: Michigan 21-17 in 2021
• Notable: The Wolverines are 4-1 vs. Penn State when ranked in the top-5; they're 7-5 when both teams are ranked

The Story Line

For Penn State, firsts are important, notably first downs and the first quarter. Michigan has dictated terms this season because it has played with a lead for most of it. The Wolverines have scored first in all six games and have scored touchdowns on five of their six game-opening possessions.

They have outscored opponents 75-17 in the first quarter. And they have trailed for only about 13 minutes of the second quarter against Maryland, until Blake Corum scored on a 33-yard run just before halftime.

The Wolverines also are really good on first down, averaging 5.58 yards per rush and 11.4 yards per completion. So they've maintained manageable down and distance, taken leads and held them and haven't been played under duress.

That's a perfect game-management situation for quarterback JJ McCarthy, one Penn State must disrupt. The Lions have to force third-and-medium or third-and-long downs that defensive coordinator Manny Diaz can attack. They can't allow McCarthy get into a play-action rhythm behind Corum. And they don't want to fall too far behind, thus thrusting the game on their big-play passing offense.

So Penn State should start here, if it can: Win the coin toss, defer, get a defensive stop and score early. Force Michigan to call an offensive game from behind. Make the Wolverines chase, which could prompt McCarthy into some mistakes. Bursting Michigan's comfortable rhythm will be critical.

Michigan running back Blake Corum averages 122.5 yards rushing per game and leads the Big Ten with 11 rushing touchdowns :: Jeffrey Becker/USA Today Sports

Penn State Players to Watch

Sean Clifford: The quarterback said he spent the past two weeks "leaving no stone unturned" to face Michigan. This is one of those legacy moments for Clifford, who has won a lot of games but really could use a signature victory.

Tyler Elsdon/Kobe King: Penn State's middle linebackers have to challenge Michigan's short passing game and crossing routes in addition to tackling Corum.

KeAndre Lambert-Smith: Will he or won't he? The potential big-play receiver, injured against Northwestern, returned to practice this week. Franklin, of course, won't give away his status, but he'll be an important presence.

Ji'Ayir Brown: The safety likely will slide into run support while he covers ground in the pass game. Brown's versatility will be an asset.

Michigan Players to Watch

Blake Corum: He's a chain-moving back with big-play potential. Corum, who has topped 120 yards rushing in three straight Big Ten games, ranks seventh nationally in yards per game (122.5) and is tied for the national lead with 10 carries of 20+. 

Ronnie Bell: The receiver has returned strong after sustaining a season-ending injury in Game 1 of 2021. Bell leads the Spartans with 30 catches but has just one score.

Mike Morris: Franklin noted his wariness of Michigan's edge rusher, who's tied for second in the Big Ten with five sacks. Morris could make a mess of Penn State's pass blocking.

Mazi Smith: Franklin likes to point out good players whom he recruited. Smith was among this week's mentions. The defensive tackle is a 6-3, 337-pound wall who will oppose the Lions' interior run game.

The Prediction

Michigan's schedule is highly suspect. Its three non-conference opponents, Connecticut, Colorado State and Hawai'i, rank in the bottom nine of ESPN's College Football Power Index. And Iowa ranks last in college football in total offense. So that wasn't coachspeak when Jim Harbaugh called Penn State his team's toughest opponent this season.

That said, the Lions might have a narrow window to victory. They'll need great Sean Clifford, a turnover or two and to keep Corum away from the red zone.

Penn State hasn't beaten a top-5 team on the road since the 1994 team won at Michigan by a touchdown. These Lions don't have that offense's firepower. So Michigan does just enough to win.

Michigan 21, Penn State 17

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AllPennState is the place for Penn State news, opinion and perspective on the SI.com network. Publisher Mark Wogenrich has covered Penn State for more than 20 years, tracking three coaching staffs, three Big Ten titles and a catalog of great stories. Follow him on Twitter @MarkWogenrich. And consider subscribing (button's on the home page) for more great content across the SI.com network.