Penn State Vs. Ohio State Preview, Predictions: Closing the Gap?

The Lions seek their first win over a top-5 team since 2016 — their last victory over the Buckeyes.

James Franklin said this week that Penn State has "closed the gap" on the country's top-5 programs. Have they? We'll find out, as the Nittany Lions attempt to defend Franklin's thesis Saturday at Ohio State, where they face the No. 3 Buckeyes.

Penn State has lost eight straight games to top-5 teams since its last win, over No. 2 Ohio State in 2016. So Saturday does seem to represent an important mile-marker on the program's road to the College Football Playoff. The "if now not, when?" crowd is watching closely.

Our preview and predictions for Penn State-Ohio State.

No. 7 Penn State (6-0) vs. No. 3 Ohio State (6-0)

When: Noon ET Saturday

Where: Ohio Stadium

TV: FOX

Streaming: FuboTV (Start your free trial)

Betting Line: Ohio State is a 4.5-point favorite, according to DraftKings

Series History: Ohio State leads 24-14

Last Meeting: Ohio State 44-31 in 2022

Streaks: Ohio State has won six straight overall and the last five at home

The Story Line

So let's shift from the who-needs-a-win-more discussion to the field. Analysts point toward Penn State's potential defensive line advantage, particularly against an Ohio State offensive front that doesn't have the NFL-graded talent of years past. However, the Buckeyes grade out strongly in following their assignments and finishing blocks. 

According to Sports Info Solutions, Ohio State's blown-block rate is a Big Ten-best at just 1 percent (the Lions are strong, too, at 1.4 percent). The Buckeyes' offensive line has just nine total blown blocks on 169 rushing snaps, which means the running backs are getting room. 

Now, who will run the ball remains a question mark, as the Buckeyes have sustained some injuries at the position. But if TreVeyon Henderson returns and sophomore Dallan Hayden gets going (he's averaging 6.9 yards per carry in limited work), the Buckeyes could go to work. Penn State's defensive front seven is the axis in this game. It must corral that run game, force mid- to long-range second- and third-down plays and give the ends a chance to pressure Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord. Penn State wins with defense, but Ohio State's maligned offensive line just might be up to the task.

Penn State Players to Watch

Nicholas Singleton: The running back said this week that he feels fresh physically, perhaps because he has just 89 attempts through six games. This also was noteworthy ahead of Saturday. Asked whether he prefers running over defenders or making them miss, Singleton said, "For me, I feel like [it's] running someone over, let them know I’m here all night, let them get scared, so next time they’ll think about trying to tackle you. I love that."

Harrison Wallace III: Receiver KeAndre Lambert-Smith needs some backup. Wallace finally appears healthy enough to provide it. He shook off an early fumble last week against UMass to catch three passes for 44 yards, providing quarterback Drew Allar with a needed target. Wallace is an over-the-top threat who could disrupt the Buckeyes' secondary. The Lions, who have dropped 14 passes (third-most in the Big Ten), also need some steadiness that Wallace can provide. 

KJ Winston Jr.: Penn State should want to avoid a lot of man coverage against Marvin Harrison Jr., meaning a safety must help. Winston (6-2, 203) is a physical defender who can help bracket Harrison and prevent the big play.

Ohio State Players to Watch

Marvin Harrison Jr: Obviously, but this week still might be different. Harrison dropped three passes at Purdue (the same number he dropped during the entire 2022 season) and wasn't happy about it. The Lions don't have a single answer for him, which means covering with multiple defenders. That leaves space for players like...

Cade Stover: The tight end scored a crushing fourth-quarter touchdown at Beaver Stadium last year and will be quite the matchup test for Penn State's linebackers. He doesn't need eight targets to be impactful. Stover catches 78.3 percent of his passes for first downs, according to Sports Info Solutions, and has a perfect on-target catch rate.

JT Tuimoloau: Great line from Ohio State's stat package this week: "Tuimoloau disorderly conducted his way to four turnovers that directly led to 21 Ohio State points: a pass deflection thatwas intercepted; two interceptions; and a forced fumble." He'll be hard-pressed to repeat that, but Penn State can't let the defensive end change another game. Tuimoloau did most of his damage against the right side of Penn State's line last year but is lining up against more left tackles this season. Could that mean a duel with Penn State's Olu Fashanu?

The Predictions

Max Ralph: Everything feels like it has aligned just right for Penn State to finally pull off the upset of Ohio State and catapult toward the College Football Playoff. But after so many razor-thin losses over the years, I just can’t go all-in on a Lions win. It’s going to be a one-possession game like James Franklin has said all week, and I’m not sure I’ve seen enough from the Penn State offense to be convinced of an upset. The defense, though, could create chaos in the underdog's favor. A win for either side wouldn’t surprise me. Ohio State 27, Penn State 25.

Mark Wogenrich: Recent Penn State-Ohio State games hinged less on one side's dominance and more on plays that jerked the steering wheel in one direction. Sometimes in both directions before Ohio State finally grabbed the wheel for good. But this feels game more like those Penn State victories of 2005 and 2008, when the Lions' defense never really relinquished control of the car. Chop Robinson, Adisa Isaac, Abdul Carter, Curtis Jacobs, Kalen King, Johnny Dixon and Manny Diaz have been pointing toward this moment all season. They align for the win. Penn State 20-17.

More on Penn State

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James Franklin says Penn State is closing the gap against top-5 teams

Inside the transformation of Penn State quarterback Drew Allar

Can Penn State harness the past to a win over Ohio State?

Drew Allar details his self-scout ahead of trip to Ohio State

Penn State analyst Gabe Infante might be the Lions' secret weapon against the Buckeyes

The Penn State-Ohio State betting line favors the Buckeyes again

Quarterback commit Ethan Grunkemeyer discusses committing to Penn State and his relationship with Drew Allar

AllPennState is the place for Penn State news, opinion and perspective on the SI.com network. Publisher Mark Wogenrich has covered Penn State for more than 20 years, tracking three coaching staffs, three Big Ten titles and a catalog of great stories. Follow him on Twitter @MarkWogenrich. And consider subscribing (button's on the home page) for more great content across the SI.com network.