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Penn State Vs. Ohio State: Preview, Predictions

The Nittany Lions host the Buckeyes in game between top-5 teams nursing key injuries and big chips.

Mark Wogenrich

Penn State quarterback Drew Allar during the Nittany Lions' game against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium.
Penn State quarterback Drew Allar during the Nittany Lions' game against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. / Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images
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Penn State runs head-first into another memorable opportunity Saturday, when its hosts Ohio State with a chance to reach 8-0 for just second the time under head coach James Franklin. The Nittany Lions are ranked higher, have a less-than-full-strength starting quarterback, are at home for the first time in four weeks and seek to end a seven-game losing streak to the Buckeyes.

So let's get it started, shall we?

No. 3 Penn State (7-0) vs. No. 4 Ohio State (6-1)

  • When: Noon ET Saturday
  • Where: Beaver Stadium
  • TV: FOX
  • Streaming: FOX Sports app
  • Series History: Ohio State leads 25-14
  • Last Meeting: Ohio State 20-12 in 2023
  • Streaks: Ohio State has won seven straight

RELATED: Donald Trump no longer plans to attend Saturday's Penn State-Ohio State game

The Story Line

Andy Kotelnicki has been Penn State's most dynamic offseason find, the offensive coordinator who recites lines from the movie "Anchorman" at practice, trains his players in public speaking and has turned tight end Tyler Warren into the ultimate five-tool football player. But Saturday is why James Franklin pried Kotelnicki from Kansas and coach Lance Leipold: to score more than 20 points against Ohio State.

"It wasn't easy hiring him," Franklin said this week, a nod to Kotelnicki's value both to Kansas and other programs. If Kotelnicki continues calling entertaining games, deploying his assets in unique ways and framing Penn State's offense as the fun place to play, he'll be doing it somewhere else soon — for head-coaching money. "It's super, super fun," Penn State tackle Anthony Donkoh said of playing in Kotelnicki's offense. "... We have a lot more crazy stuff that we have in store that I can't wait to actually run in the game."

Well, now's the time, because Franklin hired Kotelnicki to operate a high-scoring, explosive offense that also can run the ball, make smart use of its backup quarterback and, by doing all that, beat Ohio State. The Nittany Lions looked lost offensively in Columbus last season. They went 0-for-15 on third down until their final series, converted one play longer than 15 yards through three quarters and watched quarterback Drew Allar and his receivers play different games (4.5 yards per attempt). Kotelnicki has corralled all that, lifting Allar into the national top 10 in quarterback rating, pass efficiency, completion percentage, yards per attempt and yards per completion. He has nurtured Warren into one of the nation's best players. And he has done well with what he has at wide receiver.

"We did some really good things the last couple years," Franklin said this week. "Where we were lacking last year was in explosive plays. We kind of started to look at who are the coordinators and who are the teams that are producing explosive plays, and not just because their genetics are better. Where are the explosive plays coming from? How are they being created? Are they happening on a consistent basis? Also, are they doing it against their biggest competition? When you kind of looked at those types of things, the list narrowed down pretty quickly."

The dynamic is even more compelling Saturday, as Penn State analyzes whom to start at quarterback, how much to play backup Beau Pribula and where to deploy each best. Penn State has been in plenty of fourth-quarter games with Ohio State but has lacked that one-more-play on offense to win (2017 aside). Kotelnicki is in State College to create that. If he does, Franklin might be going back to that list, so enjoy it.

Penn State offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki talks with reporters during preseason football media day in Beaver Stadium.
Penn State offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki talks with reporters during preseason football media day in Beaver Stadium. / Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK

RELATED: Is the Penn State-Ohio State game a must-win for the Nittany Lions?

Penn State Players to Watch

Nicholas Singleton: The running back hasn't topped 100 yards, or broken a run longer than 20 yards, since Week 2 against Bowling Green. It's imperative that he and Kaytron Allen churn yards, and eat minutes, against a Buckeyes' run defense that ranks sixth nationally.

Omari Evans: Penn State's deep threat at receiver has been an afterthought for the past month. He has just three catches, none longer than 16 yards, in the past four games. Ohio State's secondary speed won't allow him to run past it. So Evans needs to break physical coverage at the line of scrimmage, make a contested catch and give his quarterback a tertiary pass target.

Jalen Kimber: Penn State plays a good amount of man coverage, meaning the cornerback will get Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka or Carnell Tate at some point. Ohio State wins if its receivers consistently beat press-man. Kimber, AJ Harris and Zion Tracy will be up against it.

Jaylen Reed: Penn State's safety is having a monster season, goading the past two opposing quarterbacks into critical second-half interceptions. He'll be essential not only in keeping Ohio State quarterback Will Howard honest but also in run support against Ohio State's twin-back system.

Ohio State Buckeyes to Watch

Jeremiah Smith: Nebraska got some pressure and shortened Will Howard's throwing time, but Ohio State targeted the Big Ten's best receiver just four times in last week's throat-tightener. One went for a long touchdown. Smith should get at least 10 targets Saturday.

The left tackle: Here's where the Buckeyes are vulnerable. Zen Michalski, who replaced injured star Josh Simmons last week, struggled before getting hurt himself. Day told reporters this week that Michalski is "trending" toward missing the game. Thus, the Buckeyes confront more juggling. All-Big Ten guard Donovan Jackson is the likely tackle candidate, but Ohio State becomes more susceptible up front.

Caleb Downs: The safety might be Ohio State's best defensive player with 5.5 tackles for loss and two key stops against Nebraska. He has the ability neutralize a potential Pribula run game or a Warren free-for-all.

Denzel Burke: In a loaded Ohio State secondary, Burke has made a stunning 42 starts, 26 career pass break-ups and two interceptions this season. He didn't have a great day at Oregon but is going to make route-running exhausing for the Penn State receivers.

RELATED: Ohio State QB Will Howard is "stoked" for Saturday's game at Penn State

The Predictions

Mark Wogenrich: The recent Penn State-Ohio State history has been defined by the Buckeyes' great individual games: J.T. Barrett in 2017, Chase Young in 2018, Justin Fields (despite two fumbles) in 2019, JT Tuimoloau in 2022 and Marvin Harrison Jr. last year. Ohio State lately has had that one more player Penn State lacked. The dynamic of this year's game is different, but Ohio State still has a few more players. Last week's lull against Nebraska was an outlier. The Buckeyes show up Saturday with one more player (perhaps receiver Jeremiah Smith) and scheme out another win. Ohio State 24, Penn State 23

Daniel Mader: This is the best top-to-bottom Nittany Lions team that Ryan Day has faced in years — which doesn’t guarantee a Penn State win but does make things a lot more interesting. The pressure and run defense that Penn State displayed in this matchup in 2023 is still present, but more importantly, Andy Kotelnicki’s offensive creativity entirely changes how these two teams stack up to one another. I do think a whole lot depends on Drew Allar’s injury status, but the Buckeyes weren’t entirely convincing in a 21-17 win over Nebraska last week anyway. Assuming Allar plays, I think Penn State finally sneaks by with a massive win in this historic rivalry. Penn State 27, Ohio State 24

Sam Woloson: Penn State has lost its last seven games against Ohio State, but offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki could be what helps the Nittany Lions get over the hump. The way Kotelnicki adjusted his scheme in the second half at Wisconsin to cater to backup quarterback Beau Pribula was impressive, and his ability to make half-time adjustments will be important again. The Buckeyes defense will be tough, but whether its Allar or Pribula starting, I have confidence that Kotelnicki can put his players in position to succeed, especially with weapons like Tyler Warren presenting matchup problems all around the field. Penn State 23, Ohio State 20

More Penn State Football

The latest on Penn State's injury situation

Penn State faced communications tech issues at Wisconsin, James Franklin says

How Ohio State is preparing for a trip to Penn State

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Mark Wogenrich
MARK WOGENRICH

Mark Wogenrich is Editor and Publisher of AllPennState, the site for Penn State news on SI's FanNation Network. He has covered Penn State sports for more than two decades across three coaching staffs and three Rose Bowls.

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