Penn State Vs. Oregon Tale of the Tape: Big Ten Title Game By the Numbers

The Nittany Lions and Ducks look similar across several statistical categories. Here's where each team might find an edge.

Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar throws a pass against the Maryland Terrapins during the first quarter at Beaver Stadium. / Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Two top teams will tangle Saturday night in Indianapolis as No. 1 Oregon takes on No. 3 Penn State in the Big Ten Championship Game. The winner will secure a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff, while the loser will host its first game.  

The teams didn’t play each other during the regular season; in fact, they haven’t played since the 1995 Rose Bowl. Here’s how they compare going into Saturday’s game at Lucas Oil Stadium.

RELATED: Penn State vs. Oregon: Keys to the game

Penn State’s schedule vs. Oregon’s schedule

Penn State comes in at 11-1, while Oregon is the nation’s last remaining undefeated team at 12-0. The Nittany Lions have a tougher strength of schedule than Oregon according to ESPN, with the Nittany Lions ranking 36th and Oregon 60th. Meanwhile, Oregon is No. 1 in strength of record, while Penn State is fourth

The key game that separates the two teams is Ohio State. The Ducks knocked off the Buckeyes, then ranked No. 2, 32-31 at home in October. The Nittany Lions couldn’t do the same, falling at Beaver Stadium 20-13 to the then-No. 4 Buckeyes two weeks later. 

Both teams also have a common ranked win against Illinois. Penn State defeated then-No. 19 Illinois 21-7 at home, while Oregon defeated the 20th-ranked Illini by a wider margin, 38-9. 

There are five other common opponents between the teams: UCLA, Wisconsin, Maryland, Washington and Purdue. Penn State won all five games by at least two scores, while Oregon had a scare against Wisconsin with a tight 16-13 win. That game balances out with Penn State’s close 26-25 win at Minnesota. 

Looking at their nonconference schedules, Oregon survived a close 37-34 game in Week 2 against Boise State, which was unranked at the time. The Broncos are now 11-1 and No. 10 in the nation, so that win aged well for the Ducks. Penn State’s best nonconference win came against West Virginia, which finished 6-6 and recently fired its head coach. 

Penn State vs. Oregon by the numbers

Penn State	Statistic	Oregon
11-1	Record	12-0
36	Strength of Schedule	60
9	ESPN FPI Offense Rank	3
10	ESPN FPI Defense Rank	12
33.3 ppg	Scoring Offense	35.2 ppg
442.8 ypg	Total Offense	448.5 ypg
14 ppg	Scoring Defense	16.2 ppg
81.6	Starting Quarterback QBR	85.0
30:57	Time of Possession	30:42
+7	Turnover Margin	+5
17.14%	Explosive Play Percentage	14.74%

Penn State’s offense vs. Oregon’s offense

Saturday will be a duel between two of the nation’s most efficient quarterbacks. Penn State’s Drew Allar has completed 71.6 percent of his passes and has an 18/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Allar ranks third in the Big Ten in passer rating (165.54), one spot ahead of Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel (165.06). Gabriel has completed 73.5 percent of his passes with a 24/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 

Oregon’s passing game runs through a trio of talented receivers in Tez Johnson, Evan Stewart and Traeshon Holden, all of whom have more than over 580 yards receiving. Tight end Terrance Ferguson has been productive with 490 yards receiving. 

Penn State’s passing game has been the Tyler Warren show, as the Big Ten tight end of the year has 81 receptions for 978 yards and six touchdowns. Warren also factors into the running game as a Wildcat quarterback, especially in short-yardage situations, totaling four rushing touchdowns. 

Beyond Warren, production has been scarce for Penn State receivers. The Nittany Lions’ top four receivers have combined for 84 catches, just three more than Warren. Harrison Wallace III has been solid (35 receptions, 579 yards) and is expected to return after not playing against Maryland last week. The next three receivers have only 18, 17 and 14 catches, respectively. 

On the ground, Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen have been a strong rushing duo, combining for 1,431 yards and 12 touchdowns. Allar has also been a factor with his legs, flashing an ability to scramble and use his big frame in short-yardage situations. Oregon’s leading rusher is Jordan James, who has 1,166 yards rushing and 13 touchdowns. 

Overall, the Nittany Lions and Ducks are efficient and protect the ball well, turning over the ball 10 and 11 times, respectively. Oregon leads the Big Ten, and ranks seventh nationally, in third-down efficiency (.497). Penn State isn’t far behind with a .472 conversion rate. In terms of total yardage, Oregon ranks 15th nationally, while Penn State ranks 19th. 

Penn State’s defense vs. Oregon’s defense 

While Oregon has the slightly better offense statistically, Penn State leads the way defensively in this matchup. Both defenses are very stout with coordinators who are semifinalists for the Broyles Award (Penn State’s Tom Allen and Oregon’s Tosh Lupoi). The Nittany Lions rank fourth nationally in total yards allowed, while the Ducks are seventh. Penn State allows only 14 points per game, while Oregon allows 16.17. 

Much of their dominance stems from the defensive lines, as two of the best pass rushers in the country will face off in Penn State’s Abdul Carter, the Big Ten defensive player of the year, and Oregon’s Matayo Uiagalelei. Both players rank toward the top of the nation in sacks, with Uiagalelei posting 10.5 and Carter at 10. 

Those two will command a lot of attention, but the pass rushers on the other side of the line are productive too, with Penn State’s Dani Dennis-Sutton and Oregon’s Jordan Burch also having strong seasons. 

Looking at the linebackers and secondary, both teams have playmakers. A player to watch for the Nittany Lions will be Jaylen Reed, who has proclaimed himself “the best safety in the country.” He’s certainly one of the best players on Penn State’s defense, leading the team with 75 tackles and three interceptions. 

Oregon’s leading tackler is Bryce Boettcher, a two-sport athlete who’s the starting center fielder for the Ducks’ baseball team. Tritium Tuioti and Jeffrey Bassa also have had solid seasons, contributing to a talented linebacking corps that will hope to slow down Penn State’s offense. 

No. 1 Oregon meets No. 3 Penn State in the 2024 Big Ten Championship Game on Saturday at Lucas Oil Stadium. CBS will broadcast the game beginning at 8 p.m. ET.

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Sam Woloson has covered Penn State Athletics for the past three years and is currently the managing editor of The Daily Collegian. His work has also appeared in Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Huntingdon Daily News and Rivals. Follow him on X @sam_woloson