Penn State Vs. Purdue Prediction: Facing the 'Elephant in the Room'

'11-11 the past two years doesn't sit well with me,' one Penn State player said. Time to change the narrative.

So you're going to hear plenty about chips on shoulders and motivation and being underappreciated when Penn State visits Purdue on Thursday.

For the Lions, an 11-11 record over the past two seasons has generated plenty of internal fuel since the Outback Bowl. As center Juice Scruggs said, "11-11 is definitely the elephant in the room." Defensive tackle PJ Mustipher called it a factor in his decision to return for a fifth season.

"11-11 the past two years doesn't sit well with me," Mustipher said. "I don't want to leave on that note."

Purdue, meanwhile, feels like an afterthought to this game, despite finishing 9-4 last season with wins over two AP top-5 teams (Iowa and Michigan).

"Our guys have a chip on their shoulder," Purdue coach Jeff Brohm said. "They all think they've been overlooked to a certain degree. They're out to prove themselves."

Who's saltier might be a mitigating factor Thursday night in West Lafayette, but the game more likely will hinge on which defense best stops the opposing 24-year-old, sixth-year quarterback.

How to watch Penn State vs. Purdue

The Storyline

Penn State fielded the nation's sixth-ranked scoring defense, one that allowed 17.3 points per game and more than 24 just twice (against Ohio State and Michigan State). But that defense lost six starters to the NFL and its coordinator (Brent Pry) to Virginia Tech. So no matter how much young defensive talent they've recruited, the Lions have to redefine themselves quickly to match Purdue's skilled passing game, which ranked second in the Big Ten last season.

Penn State's defensive line rotation will feature two players who didn't play last season (Adisa Isaac and Hakeem Beamon), one who missed 7.5 games (Mustipher) and one who played linebacker for Maryland (Chop Robinson).

Further, the Lions will break in a new starting middle linebacker (Tyler Elsdon) who must make calls against an offense that averaged 74 plays per game. If this were a home-opener against the MAC, no worries. But on the road, against an offense that's experienced and precise, Penn State's defense must be in midseason form early. Tall order.

Penn State Players to Watch

PJ Mustipher: Welcome back to the defensive tackle who was having an All-Big Ten season before his injury at Iowa. Heck, Mustipher was named second-team All-Big Ten despite playing in just five games. Brohm called Mustipher the Lions' best lineman and a player Purdue must track.

Curtis Jacobs: Penn State's most experienced linebacker shifted from Sam to Will, where he'll apply his speed closer to the line of scrimmage. Jacobs will have to carry an inexperienced group of linebackers early in the season.

Mitchell Tinsley: The most most experienced receiver on Penn State's roster, who transferred from Western Kentucky, caught 11 passes against Indiana and Michigan State last season. Quarterback Sean Clifford will want to make Tinsley a reliable part of the offense quickly.

Olu Fashanu: If Penn State's new left tackle can keep the pressure off his quarterback, this offense could roll. 

Receiver Mitchell Tinsley (5) makes his Penn State debut Thursday at Purdue :: Matthew O'Haren/USA Today Sports

Purdue Players to Watch

Charlie Jones and Tyrone Tracy: Jones and Tracy, both former Iowa receivers, combined for 87 catches with the Hawkeyes. They're two of 12 transfers (including former Penn State defensive tackle Cole Brevard) on Purdue's roster. Franklin has noted how difficult Purdue has been to scout because of the transfer influx. That will be particularly true on offense.

Jalen Graham: Purdue's defense needs its best playmakers to show out vs. the Lions. Graham made 64 tackles and two interceptions (returning one for a touchdown against Nebraska) last season.

Gus Hartwig: The center has started 16 consecutive games and anchors a line that returns 51 career starts.

Penn State Wins If...

Sean Clifford is right about Year 2 in the Mike Yurcich making a substantial difference, throws for 300 yards and three scores, has a run game that presents a measurable big-play threat and can watch his defense hold Purdue to 24 points.

Purdue Wins If...

Quarterback Aidan O'Connell, who has the capacity to throw for 400 yards, translates those yards into points. Purdue likely will need to score 27 to win this game, a tough ask against Manny Diaz's defense that should force a turnover or two.

The Prediction

Purdue's one-dimensional offense feeds Penn State's strengths of pass rush and coverage and limits the need for linebackers. That represents a good starting point for the Lions. But O'Connell's the wild card. He can confuse a young, finding-its-way defense with his ability to mix timing, receivers and throws. Then he launches one downfield, and Purdue's got a big-play touchdown.

But Clifford and Penn State begin this season as they did the last — with a Big Ten road win.

Penn State 31, Purdue 24

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AllPennState is the place for Penn State news, opinion and perspective on the SI.com network. Publisher Mark Wogenrich has covered Penn State for more than 20 years, tracking three coaching staffs, three Big Ten titles and a catalog of great stories. Follow him on Twitter @MarkWogenrich. And consider subscribing (button's on the home page) for more great content across the SI.com network.