Penn State Vs. Purdue: Story Lines, Players to Watch, Predictions

The Nittany Lions visit the Boilermakers with the College Football Playoff in their sights.

Penn State quarterback Drew Allar throws a pass against the Washington Huskies at Beaver Stadium. / Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Penn State on Saturday returns to Purdue, site of the Sean Clifford 2022 miracle IV drive, for a game that shouldn't be as close (or require IVs). If it is, and does, then the Nittany Lions might have released those playoff-ticketing details too soon.

Penn State needs to cap the 2024 regular season with three victories that leave no doubt in committee minds about its qualifications for hosting a first-round College Football Playoff game. That begins with a dominant performance against Purdue, which has lost eight straight games and whose only win is against FCS Indiana State in the opener.

What to make of Saturday's Penn State vs. Purdue game? Here's the lowdown, with our predictions.

No. 4 Penn State (8-1) vs. Purdue (1-8)

• When: 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday

• Where: Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, Ind.

• TV: CBS

• Betting Line: Penn State is a 29-point favorite, according to DraftKings

• Series History: Penn State leads 16-3-1

• Last Meeting: Penn State 35-31 in 2022

RELATED: James Franklin "confident" running back Nicholas Singleton will play at Purdue

The Story Line

In other seasons, this might have meant something. According to Purdue, no unranked team since 1936 has more wins over top-5 opponents (17) than the Boilermakers. Purdue also has seven wins over ranked opponents in the last six years, including three against top-3 teams. However, this team doesn't have upset credentials.

The Boilermakers rank 117th or lower nationally in 12 statistical categories, including scoring offense (127th) and scoring defense (128th). They have been shut out twice (by Oregon and Ohio State) and did not score a first-quarter point until their eighth game of the season. Worse is that schedule. Purdue is the only Big Ten team to play Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana this season, all in the season's final six weeks. "Nobody is complaining about playing good teams and elite teams," Purdue coach Ryan Walters said.

For Penn State, Saturday's theme (beyond obviously winning) is improvement. Coach James Franklin this week circled five key areas for growth in the season's final three weeks:

• Play a complete game: "Early on we were a second-half team," Franklin said. "Last week [against Washington] was a good first half. We've got to be able to put it together for four quarters and have a killer mindset."

• Get vertical: Franklin wants Penn State's passing game to "be able to consistently throw the ball and make plays and get open no matter who we play."

• Generate more rushing consistency: Penn State rushed for 266 yards against Washington after averaging 126 through the previous four games.

• Don't give an inch: Franklin has lamented small but untimely mistakes (primarily penalties) that prodded first downs or easy yards. "When we don't [commit those penalties], we make it very difficult on people in terms of earning yardage and earning first downs," Franklin said.

• Make a big special teams play: Franklin said Penn State's special teams have been solid but haven't generated that game-changing play: a block or return for a score (Nicholas Singleton's penalty-waved kickoff return for a touchdown against Washington notwithstanding).

Penn State Players to Watch

Beau Pribula: The self-described "backup quarterback" should get a significant amount of second-half run with the offense. Pribula has proven what he can do as a changeup quarterback and needs more opportunities to run the offense solo.

Omari Evans: We'll repeat that Penn State's deep threat needs to get more involved in the vertical offense. The receiver has not caught a pass in three games and has just three catches in Big Ten play. Perhaps this is a game to get Evans downfield.

Abdul Carter: Even if he plays only 25 snaps, the defensive end, who has 12 tackles for loss in Big Ten play, could post huge numbers.

Purdue Players to Watch

Hudson Card: Purdue's quarterback went 9-for-19 for 108 yards against Ohio State last week. Now, he faces the Big Ten's fourth-ranked passing defense.

Kydran Jenkins: If you want to watch Purdue's most promising player, following the linebacker. Jenkins has 22 career sacks and leads the team this year in sacks (5.5) and TFLs (8.5).

Kyndrich Breedlove: If someone makes throwing the ball difficult for Drew Allar, it will be Breedlove, a 5-11 defensive back who has three interceptions and four pass breakups.

The Predictions

Mark Wogenrich: Purdue serves as the top of the Big Ten's unwitting benchmark game this season. Penn State doesn't necessarily have to throw shutouts like Oregon and Ohio State but probably does need to produce a score that makes the CFP committee shrug, say, "That wasn't close" and move on. However, this game appears primed for a Penn State defensive shutout, even if most of the starters sit the fourth quarter. Penn State 38, Purdue 0

Daniel Mader: The Boilermakers aren’t much of a threat to even make this game close. Outside of a one-point overtime loss to Illinois, Purdue has lost every game against a ranked opponent by at least 35 points. The Nittany Lions’ run game should feast this week, and we should also get better looks at the team’s young talent in the second half. Saturday’s contest has a chance to rival the Kent State matchup (56-0) as Penn State’s biggest blowout of the 2024 season. Penn State 45, Purdue 3

Sam Woloson: Purdue has had a penchant in recent years for upsetting ranked teams, but I don’t think the 1-8 Boilermakers have that kind of juice this season. Since a season-opening win against FCS Indiana State, Purdue has been outscored 340-113, including five games where its scored 10 points or fewer. I expect Penn State to have its way with the Boilermakers in a similar way it did against Washington: long, efficient drives from the offense and a defense that takes care of business. Penn State 42, Purdue 6

More Penn State Football

How 18 months changed James Franklin's career arc at Penn State

Penn State could deploy more freshmen in the season's stretch run

Gauging Beau Pribula's role as the regular season closes

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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