Penn State Vs. SMU: Keys to the Game

Quarterback Drew Allar leads the Nittany Lions against the Mustangs and quarterback Kevin Jennings in the College Football Playoff.

Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar throws downfield during the first quarter against the Oregon Ducks in the 2024 Big Ten Championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium. / Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

When the 12-team College Football Playoff became a reality, Penn State was viewed as one of the biggest beneficiaries of the new format. And now, after years of sustained success but no playoff appearances to show for it, James Franklin’s squad no longer is on the outside looking in.

Saturday marks Penn State’s first test on a potential path to the CFP title, and it comes against an 11-2 SMU squad also making its first playoff appearance. While the Mustangs snuck into the playoff as the No. 11 seed, they were one of the country’s most dangerous squads in the regular season before losing to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. How will Penn State attack SMU? Here are the keys for the Nittany Lions to advance past the Mustangs and into a quarterfinal matchup vs. Boise State on New Year’s Eve.  

RELATED: Penn State vs. SMU gameday guide

Effectively replace Beau Pribula’s presence

Before departing for the transfer portal, quarterback Beau Pribula sprinkled his impact throughout Penn State’s offense. Featured in various packages, Pribula played at least five snaps in six conference games and became an immediate rushing threat when he was on the field. On the sideline, Pribula also was a steady presence as QB2, as evidenced by his performance in the second half of a 28-13 win over Wisconsin (98 passing yards, 28 rushing yards, one touchdown pass) after Drew Allar left with an injury. 

Without Pribula, Penn State must adjust its offense. The Nittany Lions’ ground game becomes more interesting. Even with the running backs, Allar’s scrambling ability and Tyler Warren, Franklin may need a boost in rushing offense without Pribula. Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki could now look to implement his creative play-calling elsewhere. Perhaps the most essential aspect, though, is replacing the security Penn State had behind Allar. Franklin said Wednesday that true freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer is the backup quarterback despite not playing a snap in 2024.

“[Grunkemeyer has] done a really good job of putting himself in this position,” Franklin said. “We have a lot of confidence in him, and he’s getting a ton of reps this week.”

Allar’s impact, and health, may be Penn State’s biggest X-factor in the playoffs. In the Big Ten Championship, Allar often looked like a star, making difficult throws look easy as Penn State’s offense hung around with the nation’s top-ranked team. But Allar also threw two interceptions, mistakes the Nittany Lions couldn’t overcome then and surely can’t afford now. 

Considering SMU’s defense ranks fourth at stopping the run (93.4 yards allowed per game), Allar’s arm could swing Saturday’s outcome. According to CBS Sports, the Mustangs’ defense allowed 627 receiving yards to tight ends this season, which ranked 129th in FBS — meaning Warren could be in line to take advantage of a significant weakness. By relying on his star tight end, Allar may be in for a strong playoff performance. Without the safety blanket in Pribula, Penn State undoubtedly will need its junior quarterback at his best. 

Limit Kevin Jennings’ impact on the move

Franklin also noted Wednesday that the Nittany Lions haven’t faced a quarterback quite comparable to SMU’s Kevin Jennings this season. Capable of beating teams with his arm and legs, Jennings has managed the Mustangs’ offense well since becoming the full-time starter, and his athleticism allows him to extend plays and force defenses into mistakes.

Per CBS Sports, Jennings ranks second in FBS in passer efficiency (156.4) when pressured. This isn’t a matchup in which Penn State will be able to rely on Abdul Carter and its defensive line to shut down the opposing offense. Defensive coordinator Tom Allen’s unit will need to be prepared for Jennings’ rushing ability and cover his receivers longer as he scrambles while also shutting down Brashard Smith and the Mustangs’ run game. 

“[Jennings] throws it extremely well, has accuracy, has [a] really, really quick release, has good arm strength so he can he can throw in tight windows, and also has the ability to beat you with his legs and they built a whole system around that type of player,” Allen said Tuesday. “He's a guy that creates a lot of challenges for every defense, each and every week, and that's why they've had so much success.”

Jennings led the SMU charge in the ACC title game, throwing for 304 yards, rushing for 35 and totaling four touchdowns as the Mustangs rallied from a 24-7 halftime deficit to tie the game late. Slowing him won’t be easy, so Penn State’s ability to adjust and limit Jennings’ impact will decide how effectively it keeps SMU off the scoreboard.

Control the turnover battle

Turnovers often decide the outcome of big games, but with SMU this season, that’s especially been true. In their two losses, the Mustangs have totaled three interceptions by Jennings and three lost fumbles. In fact, SMU has fumbled 23 times this season (losing 12). But turnovers haven’t entirely hurt SMU, either. Despite giving the ball away 21 times, Rhett Lashlee’s squad has also gained 21 turnovers. And SMU’s opponents have scored just 17 points off turnovers.

Luck will always play a role in winning the turnover battle. But between Jennings throwing three of his eight interceptions in losses and SMU’s inability to hold onto the ball, it's a trend worth monitoring on both sides of the ball. In comparison, the Nittany Lions have thrown eight interceptions (seven by Allar) and lost just four fumbles. 

With Allar coming off a two-interception performance vs. Oregon, each quarterback’s accuracy will be key. The Nittany Lions enter the game owning the talent advantage, but a clear path for SMU to flip the script in a tough road environment will be through takeaways. Ball protection will sway which squad advances to face Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl and which ends an 11-win season. 

“This is what we work for. This is something we've been talking about since I've been here,” Carter said. “Something we all talk about is winning the National Championship, getting in the playoffs, and now we're here. We have this opportunity. We’ve got to do everything in our power to make sure we take advantage of that opportunity.”

Penn State will face SMU in Beaver Stadium on Saturday. Kickoff is set for noon ET on TNT.

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Daniel Mader, a May 2024 graduate of Penn State, is an Editorial Intern with The Sporting News. As a student journalist with The Daily Collegian, he served as a sports editor and covered Nittany Lions women’s basketball, men’s volleyball and more. He has also covered Penn State football for NBC Sports and the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, with additional work in the Centre Daily Times, Lancaster Online and more. Follow him on X @DanielMader_    or Instagram @dmadersports.