Penn State Vs. SMU: Tale of the Tape

How do the Nittany Lions match up with the Mustangs? Key numbers for their College Football Playoff game.

Penn State Nittany Lions tight end Tyler Warren (44) catches a pass over the head of Oregon Ducks linebacker Devon Jackson (26) during the third quarter in the 2024 Big Ten Championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium. / Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

It snowed in State College on Friday, as the SMU Mustangs arrived for their first-round College Football Playoff game against Penn State. That's part of the environmental experience the Mustangs will confront in playing a mostly true road game in the playoffs.

But once Penn State and SMU kick just after noon ET Saturday at Beaver Stadium, the tape will tell the tale. Penn State football holds some critical advantages (and thus is favored), but the Mustangs have the Nittany Lions' attention.

"Obviously they earned the right to be in the playoffs, just as we have," Penn State quarterback Drew Allar said. "They're a really good team, so I just look forward to the opportunity that we have ahead of us on playing in Beaver Stadium again."

One more time this year for the Nittany Lions at home. How do they match up with SMU? Let's go to the tale of the tape.

RELATED: Penn State vs. SMU: How to watch, story lines, predictions

When Penn State is on offense

Defensively, SMU is known for curbing the run and taking the ball. SMU led the ACC in run defense (93.4 yards allowed per game) and forced 21 takeaways, which the team turned into 72 points. The Mustangs can quick-strike defensively as well, ranking fifth in the FBS with five defensive touchdowns.

Three players have three interceptions apiece, with Ahmaad Moses being the potential game-breaker. He has scored on a 60-yard pick-6. SMU's secondary limits completion percentage (56.3 percent) but gives up passing touchdowns (24 in 13 games). Allar said he sees speed in a defense that will require him to be alert of multiple targets.

"They're extremely fast in the back end, especially at linebacker," Allar said. "Their linebackers can run sideline to sideline, and, they're a physical team as well. So they do a lot of good things defensively, and they have a lot of really good players on that side of the ball."

Size could be an issue in SMU's back seven, particularly with a group of 5-10 linebackers and defensive backs. This is the matchup Penn State seeks to exploit with 6-6 tight end Tyler Warren. Tight ends have been successful against SMU's defense this season.

Defensive Jahfari Harvey is SMU's pass-rush specialist, a seven-sack edge rusher who also has 12 tackles for loss and blocked a potential game-winning field goal against Duke that kept the Mustangs unbeaten in the ACC.

Penn State vs. SMU by the numbers

Penn State	Statistic	SMU
33.6	Scoring Offense	38.5
16.4	Scoring Defense	20.8
448.6	Total Offense	443.1
282.1	Total Defense	326.1
69.5	Completion Percentage	64.7
2.5	Sacks Per Game	3.1
0.9	Sacks Allowed Per Game	1.1
30:40	Time of Possession	28:26
+5	Turnover Margin	0
17.41	Explosive Play % Offense	14.81
11.68	Explosive Play % Defense	9.87

When Penn State is on defense

The player who most concerns Penn State defensive coordinator Tom Allen is quarterback Kevin Jennings. Allen admitted not knowing much about Jennings until he started to watch SMU film last week. What struck him most was Jennings' ability to turn negatives into positives.

"His ability to create is really what sticks out to me when things maybe don't go as they're supposed to," Allen said. "He's really dangerous and he forces you to have to be extremely disciplined in those areas of being able to prevent those types of plays."

That's where Penn State's linebackers will be important. Starters Kobe King and Tony Rojas need to have the most discipline in controlling Jennings' ability to improvise either a run or throw. The second is where Jennings really shines. Watch his eyes and body positioning on scrambles. Jennings rarely looks down, follows his receivers and gives them extra time to get open. For that, cornerbacks A.J. Harris and Jalen Harris face another set of long coverage downs, much as they did against Oregon.

Jennings' key contributors are running back Brashard Smith, who also can catch the ball, and receiver Roderick Daniels Jr. Both have speed and can score. Smith has 18 touchdowns, Daniels five. And because of Jennings' scrambling ability, he doesn't get sacked often; SMU allows just 1.1 per game.

Where the Mustangs are vulnerable is in protecting the football. Despite its remarkable takeaway numbers, SMU is a net-zero in turnover margin because it also gives away the ball. The Mustangs have thrown nine interceptions (eight by Jennings) and lost 12 fumbles. They also have fumbled an astonishing 23 times, nearly twice per game. Penn State coach James Franklin has pressed his defense to force more takeaways all season. Franklin certainly sees an opportunity here.

Penn State hosts SMU on Saturday in the first round of the College Football Playoff. Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET on TNT.

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