Penn State Vs. USC Preview, Predictions: Can the Nittany Lions Remain Unbeaten?

No. 4 Penn State puts its perfect record on the line against the USC Trojans in a blue-blood Big Ten matchup.

Penn State defensive end Abdul Carter (11) pressures UCLA Bruins quarterback Jaylin Davies during the third quarter at Beaver Stadium. / Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Penn State tests a stark but not fully formed statistic Saturday when it visits USC for its first Big Ten road game of the season. That's is 1-8, or the record of Big Ten teams when crossing multiple time
zones this season in the new coast-to-coast conference. Penn State coach James Franklin wanted no part of it before leaving for Los Angeles.

"I was hoping nobody would bring that up," Franklin told reporters Wednesday after practice in State College. "... We're not talking about that."

The number is real and difficult to ignore but also not an absolute bellwether. Two of those losses belong to struggling UCLA, home and away, and two belong to USC in the Midwest, whose coach Lincoln Riley believes his team is but a few plays from being unbeaten.

For Franklin, this West Coast trip represents a change of structure, which he doesn’t like. The fourth-ranked Nittany Lions left on Thursday and practice Friday at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. By Saturday, Penn State should be on-schedule for a 12:30 p.m. local start, which will feel perfectly normal for a team that has played three noon games already this season.

So don’t dismiss the impact of Penn State’s travel schedule but don’t allow it to define the game, either. 

No. 4 Penn State (5-0) vs. USC (3-2)

• When: 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday

• Where: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

• TV: CBS

• Betting line: Penn State is a 4.5-point favorite, according to FanDuel

• Series history: USC leads 6-4

• Last meeting: USC 52-49 in the 2017 Rose Bowl

The Story Line

Penn State quarterback Drew Allar has measured his confidence this season in growth spurts. Consider that he’s still very protective of the football (nine touchdown passes, one interception) while upgrading his measureables across the board: efficiency rating, completion percentage, yards per
completion, explosive-play rate, etc. Over two years, Allar has been precisely the quarterback to assure Penn State wins when it should. Allar’s next step is to win a game that he has to.

As Riley said, USC is a handful of plays from being an unbeaten, top-10 team. Miller Moss is the best and most prolific quarterback has faced thus far, averaging 40 pass attemps per game, and the same goes for his receivers. Despite scoring 17 points against Minnesota, the Trojans are capable of rapid-firing points and dictating terms. Penn State might want to shorten the game with its running backs (presuming Nicholas Singleton is healthy) and “punishing” offensive line. That might work.

But its wild card is Allar, who has led Penn State on one-game winning drive in his 18 starts. He hasn’t had to, for sure. But at least this season, Allar appears better prepared to lead one if necessary.

RELATED: How Penn State's passing game has changed this season

Penn State Players to Watch

Zane Durant: USC's offensive line is susceptible, and Penn State ends Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton look to exploit an edge at tackle. But if Durant can lead a four-man rush from the middle, pressuring Moss without requiring help from his defensive backfield, then the Nittany Lions will gain a superior advantage.

Nicholas Singleton: Of course, but even more Saturday. After missing the first game of his career last week vs. UCLA, Singleton is expected to return, but only he and Penn State's training staff know his true effectiveness. Penn State's run game has been "punishing," sure, but it also hinges on Singleton's breakaway threats.

Cam Miller: Considering USC throws 40 times per game, Penn State likely will play five defensive backs, which means significant work for the cornerback. Miller took on a larger defensive role following safety KJ Winston's early season injury, and USC's receivers will challenge his coverage skills. Miller also could deploy in blitz packages, so watch for him across the field.

USC Players to Watch

Zachariah Branch: USC awaits the breakout game for its sophomore receiver who was a first-team All-America return specialist last season. Branch, 247Sports' No. 1 receiver of the 2023 recruiting class, averaged 10.8 yards per catch and hasn't scored a touchdown yet this season. But he has untapped game-breaker potential of which Penn State must be wary.

Woody Marks: The running back, a workhorse transfer from Mississippi State, averages 93.8 yards per game and is coming off a 134-yard performance against Minnesota. He also has caught a pass in 50 consecutive games.

Mason Cobb: With linebacker Eric Gentry (team-high 6.5 tackles for loss) likely out, Cobb becomes even more valuable. The linebacker, who led USC in tackles last season, has two interceptions, one of which he returned for a touchdown against Wisconsin.

The Predictions

Mark Wogenrich: It’s delicious that USC has chosen Sam Darnold to lead the Trojans onto the field for this game. Darnold, of course, authored USC’s brazen 52-49, comeback victory over Penn State in the 2017 Rose Bowl. Good for USC, getting in a saucy spirit for Saturday. Now, do the Trojans have the defensive will to withstand Penn State’s withering run game, one that takes pride and pleasure in leveling defenders? By contrast, can Penn State’s front four generate enough pressure on Moss
without resorting to blitzes and leaving the quarterback access to routes over the middle? USC’s two losses aside, this is a matchup gem, one that favors the Nittany Lions by a breath. Penn State 28, USC 27

Daniel Mader: The Trojans may no longer be ranked, but I still think this will be Penn State’s closest victory yet. The travel aspect presents a challenge as the Nittany Lions hit the west coast, and USC’s losses against two other ranked teams, LSU and Michigan, were within one score. Ultimately though, I think Penn State’s defense comes away with multiple interceptions on Miller Moss, who’s thrown at least one in three consecutive games, and Drew Allar's passing efficiency (70.9% completion this season) remains key in a road win. Penn State 31, USC 27

Sam Woloson: I expect a close one between two of the more talented teams in the Big Ten. I think Moss and his playmakers will make plays, but the difference will be in the trenches, where I think both Penn State’s offensive line and defensive line will get a good push against the Trojans. Getting Nick Singleton back will be a big boost for the ground game, and an efficient Drew Allar with do-it-all tight end Tyler Warren should do enough to power the Nittany Lions past USC. Penn State 27, USC 20

More Penn State Football

What if James Franklin had left Penn State for USC?

Penn State brings confidence on the road to USC

Penn State's 5-0 start is "impactful." Now the hard part

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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