Penn State Vs. Wisconsin: Preview, Story Lines, Predictions

The Nittany Lions look to go 3-0 on the road this season as they visit the Badgers for a Big Ten showdown.

Penn State quarterback Drew Allar carries the ball for a short gain against the USC Trojans at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Penn State returns to the road Saturday, visiting surging Wisconsin for a Saturday-night Big Ten game that arrives at a delicate time in the schedule. The unbeaten Nittany Lions had a week off following their overtime win at USC and need a win to limit the platoff implications of their Nov. 2 home game against Ohio State.

For No. 3 Penn State, whose College Football Playoff odds increased in October, Saturday's game represents an opportunity to better their playoff chances while also mitigating a story line that we'll get into shortly. Here's our Penn State-Wisconsin preview with game predictions.

No. 3 Penn State (6-0) vs. Wisconsin (5-2)

• When: 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday

• Where: Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, Wisconsin

• TV: NBC

• Streaming: Peacock

• Betting line: Penn State is a 6.5-point favorite, according to DraftKings

• Series history: Penn State leads 11-9

• Last meeting: Penn State 16-10 in 2021

• Streaks: Penn State has won five straight vs. Wisconsin

RELATED: What's next for Tyler Warren, Penn State's "one of a kind" tight end

The Story Line

Penn State coach James Franklin is 5-7 after bye weeks since 2014. Let's get the number out of the way before providing context. Franklin's first three post-bye losses, during the sanction-affected seasons of 2014-15, were to Michigan twice and Ohio State (in double overtime during the Buckeyes' national-championship season). The Nittany Lions also lost to No. 5 Michigan post-bye in 2022.

That said, Franklin's teams also have lost some gut-wrenchers after bye weeks. In 2018, unranked Michigan State beat the No. 8 Nittany Lions 21-17 in a step-back game for the program. In 2019, fifth-ranked Penn State took an 8-0 record to Minnesota, where P.J. Fleck's boat-rowing Gophers intercepted Sean Clifford in the end zone to steal a 31-26 win. And in 2021, well, nine overtimes.

Since that 2016 post-bye win over No. 2 Ohio State, the Nittany Lions are 2-4 in Big Ten games after bye weeks. The loss to Michigan State in 2018 undercut a season. The loss at Minnesota in 2019 derailed Penn State's playoff chances. The loss to Michigan in 2022 set up consecutive 10-2 regular seasons, with losses to the Wolverines and Buckeyes, that continued Penn State's "almost" narrative.

The Nittany Lions have more playoff qualification room this season, but a win Saturday at Wisconsin could go a long way in shaping their postseason. First, Penn State will be favored in its last four regular-season games after facing Ohio State. Win as favorites (including Saturday night) and the 11-1 Nittany Lions guarantee themselves a home playoff date at Beaver Stadium. Lose to Wisconsin and the margin tightens. Penn State wouldn't need a follow-up win over Ohio State but it also couldn't afford one more stumble in the season's final month. A 10-2 record, with a best win over Illinois, is a dicey playoff resume.

The bye-week plot line is just that — until Penn State loses. Then it becomes another referendum regarding Franklin, along with his records as an underdog, against top-10 teams, etc. Thus, Saturday night means plenty for the Nittany Lions.

RELATED: How Wisconsin is preparing for Penn State's visit to Madison

Penn State Players to Watch

Nicholas Singleton: An injury during the Illinois game slowed the running back's fiery start to the season. He didn't play vs UCLA and ran for just 26 yards at USC. With a week to recuperate, Singleton should get back on track against the Big Ten's 14th-ranked run defense.

Tre Wallace: After a five-catch, 117-yard game against West Virginia, the receiver has seen more reserved usage. Wallace has the deft route-running skill to get open downfield and should find creases as teams try to contain tight end Tyler Warren. Consider this a second breakout game for Wallace.

Kobe King: Penn State's middle linebacker is having a superb season, ranking second on the team in tackles (30), including three for losses. He's the underrated core of Penn State's defense and will be key in neutralizing Wisconsin's run game.

RELATED: Safety KJ Winston unlikely to return for Penn State this season

Wisconsin Players to Watch

Tawee Walker: The running back who replaced the chronically injured Chez Mellusi has been a revelation. Walker is among the Big Ten's hottest backs, rushing for 418 yards and six touchdowns in the Badgers' three-game win streak. Watch for him on third down: Walker has converted first downs on nine of 14 third-down runs.

Braedyn Locke: The quarterback is 3-1 as a starter since replacing the injured Tyler Van Dyke against Alabama. Locke isn't lighting up the stat sheet (59.3-percent completion rate, five interceptions) but has had some solid games, notably his 359-yard performance against Purdue. Penn State wants to get him into third-down throwing situations. Locke has a 43.6-percent completion rate, and has been intercepted three times, on third down.

Hunter Wohler: The safety has thrived in coordinator Mike Tressel's defense. He made 120 tackles last season, the most for a Wisconsin defensive back since 1991, and has broken up six passes this season.

The Predictions

Mark Wogenrich: The Nittany Lions largely have played their best football on the road this season. They took control of West Virginia in the season-opener and rallied from a 14-point deficit against USC, tying the game with their best drive of the season. This team seems at home on the road, a trend that should continue Saturday night in Madison. Skilled offenses have rattled Wisconsin, whose defense has allowed 11 touchdowns in its two losses. Singleton (cool Gatorade ad) cuts loose, and the defensive front rattles Locke in a win. Penn State 27, Wisconsin 17

Daniel Mader: Once again, the Nittany Lions will face a team that’s likely more talented than its record shows. The Badgers have had one of the best pass defenses in the country, don’t allow sacks often and allowed an average of 5.3 points over their last three games. I do think Luke Fickell’s unit will limit Drew Allar’s deep passes effectively, but I still expect Penn State’s run game and defensive pressure to lead the team to another road win. Penn State 24, Wisconsin 14

Sam Woloson: It’s easy to see this as a trap game for Penn State; Wisconsin is the speed bump before the highly anticipated game against No. 4 Ohio State next weekend. To their credit, the Badgers have been solid in recent weeks and are averaging 194 yards rushing per game. I think that ground game will slow down significantly against Penn State, especially if it’s forced to play from behind. Look for the Nittany Lions to get back to their winning formula — playing solid defense, winning time of possession and protecting the football — on their way to 7-0. Penn State 30, Wisconsin 14

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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