Penn State Vs. Wisconsin: Which Team Rises From a Disappointing 2020?

The Lions have a new attitude, the Badgers have linemen averaging 6-5, 312. Who has the edge?

Penn State returns to Madison on Saturday for the first time since 2013, when Bill O'Brien led a salty group of 24-point underdogs to a 31-24 win over then-No. 14 Wisconsin.

The Lions are underdogs again (5.5 points, according to most oddsmakers) and salty once again. But not necessarily at the number. Penn State players are ready, once and for all, to bury the 2020 season for good.

"Knowing that we were truly one of the worst teams in Penn State history, we play with that chip on our shoulder, we work out with that chip on our shoulder, every single day," receiver Jahan Dotson said at the Big Ten media days in Indianapolis.

Can Penn State deliver its second consecutive upset at Camp Randall? Would a win over Wisconsin even be an upset? Let's examine that in this week's Penn State Preview.

No. 19 Penn State vs. No. 12 Wisconsin

• When: Noon Saturday EST
• Where: Camp Randall Stadium
• TV: Fox and the Fox Sports app
• Series history: Penn State leads 10-9

Which Quarterback Begins His Reclamation Tour?

Both Penn State's Sean Clifford and Wisconsin's Graham Mertz are determined to make 2020 a career turning point. Neither was particularly great or terrible last season, though Mertz started stronger (seven TD passes in his first two games) and Clifford finished better (66 percent completion rate in his last four).

Penn State safety Jaquan Brisker has a unique perspective on both. Brisker said he expects Clifford, his fellow team captain, to be "the best quarterback in all of college football."

Meanwhile, Brisker has studied Mertz to find that Wisconsin "probably hasn't had a quarterback like this since Russell Wilson," one who benefits from working behind an offensive line that averages 6-5 and 312 pounds.

"It's just the way he controls the offense," Brisker said. "Watching film, I've seen that he can throw the ball. He can throw it deep, he can throw it outside, inside, and he reads defenses. I've also seen that he'll be able to run and he has good speed to be able to scramble.

"From what I've seen of him, I can't remember a Wisconsin quarterback like this since Russell Wilson. So I feel like he's balanced like Russell, if that makes sense."

The Coordinator Duel: Mike Yurcich vs. Jim Leonhard

Penn State's Mike Yurcich and Wisconsin's Jim Leonhard provide the coaching matchup that analysts and football geeks love. According to players and coaches, Penn State's offensive coordinator has done wonders with Clifford this offseason. Even Clifford called himself "the most confident quarterback in the country."

Leonhard, meanwhile, presides over a Wisconsin defense that returns eight starters and allowed more than 350 yards just once last year. This week, Penn State coach James Franklin explained what he expects from Leonhard, which likely means plenty of stress for his quarterback but perhaps opportunities for his receivers.

"They play a lot more man coverage than I think people know," Franklin said of Wisconsin's defense. "... And with man coverage comes opportunities if your man can beat their man. There's obviously some things scheme-wise that you can do, as well.

"... It's interesting that they're not overly high when it comes to sacks (11 in seven games last season), but you feel them. They do a great job of pressuring the quarterback and feeling him in the pocket."

In the 2016 Big Ten title game, Wisconsin (with Leonhard on staff) sent pressure in trying to rattle quarterback Trace McSorley, who took an early beating but threw for 384 yards and four touchdowns. Does the coordinator try that tactic again Saturday, knowing Clifford's history? And does Yurcich respond with deep challenges against that man coverage?

Expect to hear plenty about these two coaches on Fox.

Penn State Players to Watch

Running back Noah Cain: Healthy after missing most of 2020, Cain is the centerpiece of Penn State's run game and the short-yardage train the offense needs.

Center Mike Miranda: The former guard is among three returning starters on an offensive line determined to atone for allowing 3.11 sacks per game last season (13th in the Big Ten).

Linebacker Brandon Smith: Playing a new position outside, one that better suits his physical style and run-stopping instincts, should make Smith the defense's top playmaker.

Wisconsin Players to Watch

Running back Chez Mellusi: The Clemson transfer won the starting spot over Jalen Berger. At Clemson, Mellusi averaged 6 yards per carry behind Travis Etienne. Can he match that behind Wisconsin's line?

Linebacker Leo Chenal: He's fast, agile and strong, much like past Wisconsin inside linebackers. Chenal can stop the run and cover a tight end.

Tight end Jake Ferguson: Does Penn State have anyone who can cover the 6-5 Ferguson, who has 99 career receptions?

The Underrated Storyline

Remember Gary Brown and Danny O'Brien? The former Penn State and Wisconsin players are on opposite staffs now with unique stories.

Brown, a running back who switched to safety his final season, made one of the wildest plays in Penn State bowl history, stealing the football from BYU quarterback Ty Detmer in the final minute of the 1989 Holiday Bowl. He returned to running back in the NFL, played eight years and coached seven seasons in Dallas before becoming running backs coach at Wisconsin this year.

O'Brien, meanwhile, is in his first year as an offensive analyst at Penn State, where he's living above Franklin's garage. The two have history: Franklin recruited O'Brien to play quarterback at Maryland, where O'Brien was the ACC freshman of the year in 2010.

After Franklin left Maryland for Vanderbilt, O'Brien left for Wisconsin. He started seven games for the Badgers in 2012 and later played in Canada. O'Brien was coaching running backs for the BC Lions when Franklin offered the analyst job.

"He's got a really bright future as a quarterbacks coach and eventually as an offensive coordinator," Franklin said, "and we were just kind of waiting for it to time up to get him involved."

Five Things You Should Know

1. Wisconsin has won 25 consecutive home-openers dating to 1996, tied with Oklahoma State for the nation's second-longest such streak. But the Badgers have not faced a ranked opponent in a home-opener since beating No. 1 Michigan in 1981.

2. Wisconsin is 4-5 when opening a season at home against a Big Ten opponent.

3. Penn State is opening its Big Ten schedule on the road for the sixth consecutive season and the 20th time since joining the conference in 1993. The Lions also open Big Ten play with road games in 2022 (Purdue), 2023 (Illinois) and 2024 (Rutgers).

4. James Franklin is 1-8 in road games vs. AP Top 25 teams at Penn State. The win came at No. 17 Iowa in 2019.

5. Per OddsShark, Penn State is 6-1 against the spread in its last five games against Wisconsin.

Prediction

Penn State begins the season with hope regarding its skill-position players and secondary but the same questions up front: Is either line physical enough to contend with Wisconsin? Sean Clifford, Noah Cain, Jahan Dotson and Brenton Strange can reflect a new light in coordinator Mike Yurcich's offense, but another uneven offensive line will neutralize them.

But if Cain can generate momentum, the front seven limits Mellusi and Yurcich presses the right downfield buttons with Clifford, Penn State can make this a 10-point victory. We'll split the difference.

Penn State 25, Wisconsin 20