Rose Bowl Preview, Prediction: Penn State's Legacy Game

Monday's game against Utah represents a significant transition moment for the Lions. Their response will be telling.

PASADENA, Calif. | Penn State and Utah have spent their week at the Rose Bowl exchanging greeting cards about their similarities. They're "old-school" and "fundamentalist," according to Penn State coach James Franklin, that try to play tough and sound and with a special regard for special teams.

That's all fine and probably true. But this game will hinge on the quarterbacks. Who has the edge? Let's break it down.

The 109th Rose Bowl

No. 11 Penn State (10-2) vs. No. 8 Utah (10-3)

• When: 5 p.m. EST Monday
• Where: Rose Bowl Stadium
• TV: ESPN
• Streaming: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
• Betting Line: Utah is a 1-point favorite per SI Sportsbook
• Series History: First meeting

The Story Line

Yes, it's a compelling construct that Penn State and Utah have built their programs similarly. Franklin and Utah coach Kyle Whittingham are spirit animals who share a program-building ethos that values toughness and consistency over time. They've been exceptionally complimentary, and complementary, all week.

As have the quarterbacks. Penn State's Sean Clifford is starting his 46th career game; Utah's Cameron Rising is making his 25th start. Both have made big plays and thrown their share of interceptions (seven each). Ultimately, the quarterbacks will define this Rose Bowl, likely through their lapses.

Clifford has been a fascinating quarterback to watch early in games, which his adrenaline runs hot and his passes sail high. Offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich must find a way to lower Clifford's temperature by giving him sequence-building plays that restrict his freelancing tendencies. If Clifford is hitting throws early, and getting help from his receivers to corral tough early passes, he'll cap his career with a win.

Conversely, Rising is calloused as well, having won a pair of Pac-12 title games and having beaten USC twice this season. Rising ranked ninth in the country in quarterback rating according to ESPN and led the Utes to 110 points over their past two games.

According to DraftKings analyst Mike Golic Jr., Utah has a competitive edge at quarterback, which gives them an edge in this game.

"Sean Clifford is always a complicated conversation to have around Penn State," Golic said. "He is very good college quarterback. I think that what Utah has in Cam Rising is better. Between mobility, decisiveness, and overall just the way he commands that offense, I see a little bit more there and right now coming off winning the Pac-12 championship."

Quarterback Cameron Rising leads the Utah Utes into the 109th Rose Bowl against Penn State on Jan. 2 :: Gary A. Vasquez/USA Today Sports

Penn State Players to Watch

KeAndre Lambert-Smith: The receiver had a huge game against Michigan State, establishing himself as a potential No. 1. The Lions will need one without Parker Washington and Mitchell Tinsley next season. With a strong Rose Bowl performance, Lambert-Smith can big-play himself into a 2023 springboard.

Drew Shelton: Penn State most likely won't play left tackle Olu Fashanu, giving Shelton, a true freshman, one more opportunity this season. Shelton, the team's potential right tackle next year, needs one more big game protecting Clifford's blind side.

Abdul Carter: Utah has praised no Penn State player more than the freshman linebacker. Rising said Carter has "red lights around him," and Whittingham said Carter leads the "best linebacker crew that we've seen all season."

Utah Players to Watch

Devaughn Vele: Utah's big-play receiver (50 catches, five for TDs) becomes even more important to the offense without tight end Dalton Kincaid. And he's confident of a win. "That's the only outcome I see in my head," Vele said.

Zemaiah Vaughn: The cornerback is expected to replace Clark Phillips, Utah's All-American who declared for the draft. Asked about this, Penn State offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich said, "You've got to make sure that, if there is anywhere on the field that you feel you have an advantage, you'd better make sure that you target that."

Lander Barton: Utah has a pretty good young linebacker as well. Barton, the Pac-12 freshman defensive player of the year, made 3.5 sacks and five tackles for loss. He gets good jump behind defensive tackle Junior Tafuna.

The Prediction

The Rose Bowl represents a transition moment for Penn State, between the tumultuous post-Big Ten title stretch and a potential playoff future. It also carries gravity for both sides of that inflection point.

It's a legacy game for so many Penn State players: Clifford, Ji'Ayir Brown, PJ Mustipher, Brenton Strange, Juice Scruggs, and others have run a wild career arc that included two 10-win seasons, the COVID-season meltdown and the unmet expectations of 2021. It also could be the blueprint of Penn State's future with its enormous collection of young talent: Carter, Shelton, Kalen King, Nicholas Singleton, Kaytron Allen and Drew Allar.

So many departing Lions have expressed belief that Penn State could compete for a playoff spot next season. In fact, had they held the lead over Ohio State for another 9 minutes and 30 seconds, the Lions would have been in Saturday's semifinals.

Penn State had a great season and appears headed in the right direction. However, Utah might be the better team this year, with the better quarterback. More than anyone, Clifford needs to be great, or at least better than Rising. Will it happen?

Penn State 31, Utah 28

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The remarkable story of Penn State's first Rose Bowl

Penn State begins Rose Bowl prep in Los Angeles

Analyst Mike Golic Jr. scouts the Rose Bowl

AllPennState is the place for Penn State news, opinion and perspective on the SI.com network. Publisher Mark Wogenrich has covered Penn State for more than 20 years, tracking three coaching staffs, three Big Ten titles and a catalog of great stories. Follow him on Twitter @MarkWogenrich. And consider subscribing (button's on the home page) for more great content across the SI.com network.