The Penn State Football 2024 Forecast: Are the Nittany Lions Playoff Contenders?

Will Penn State field a College Football Playoff team in 2024? Our forecast series finds out.

Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar (15) hands off to running back Nicholas Singleton in a 2023 game against Michigan State at Ford Field in Detroit. / David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports

Penn State has waited, with ever dwindling levels of patience, to join the College Football Playoff club. The Nittany Lions rank 12th in appearances in the weekly CFP rankings (36). Only two programs (Utah with 44 and Oklahoma State with 43) have more weekly CFP appearances than Penn State without a playoff game.

But all three, notably Penn State football, will sharpen their playoff senses when the CFP expands to 12 teams for the 2024 season. In fact, Penn State has rescheduled fall graduation just in case it hosts a playoff game. Is that prudent planning or wishful thinking? We set out to answer the question.

In our Penn State Football 2024 Forecast series, we broke down 10 segments of the program, including the coaching staff, to determine whether this will be a playoff team. In doing so, we broke down positional strengths and concerns, a name or two you should know and, bottom line, is this is a playoff-contending unit?

What's the conclusion? Here's a glimpse at each of the 10 parts of our Penn State Football forecast.

The Coaching Staff

Can Penn State Win the Big Ten With this Group?: Yes. Despite the new faces at important places, this Penn State coaching staff should inspire confidence. Kotelnicki and Allen are proven names in their roles and appear determined to tailor their schemes toward the players rather than force a scheme on them. Penn State’s position coaches are as strong as ever, too, leaving just one big question remaining: can the Nittany Lions get over the hump in big games under Franklin?

The Quarterbacks

The Storyline: Can Drew Allar find the same gear he showed toward the end of the 2023 season? The quarterback said after a stellar performance at Maryland that “something” had clicked the week prior against Indiana, a game Penn State narrowly pulled out after Allar followed his first career interception with a 57-yard touchdown pass to KeAndre Lambert-Smith (now at Auburn).

The Running Backs

The Players You Don't Know Yet: Cam Wallace and Quinton Martin Jr. got their chances to shine at the Blue-White Game and did exactly that. Wallace was busy, taking seven carries for 36 yards, good for an efficient 5.1 yard-per-carry mark. Martin toted the ball six times, picking up 34 yards and a pair of good-looking touchdowns. Their competition should be fun to watch this year.

The Wide Receivers

The Issues at the Position: To put it plainly, there are a lot of issues at receiver. Penn State hasn’t had a true No. 1 threat since Jahan Dotson. Recruiting, both high school and out of the transfer portal, has struggled, and development has been uneven. Overall depth has struggled to show up, too. Penn State needs players like Omari Evans and Harrison Wallace III to take sizable steps forward this season, but it probably needed to add another receiver from the portal.

The Tight Ends

The Alpha: Tyler Warren is a prototypical tight end. At 6-6 and 259 pounds, he has been a top-tier red-zone target for Allar and has turned himself into a complete tight end over the last year-plus. He capped the 2023 season on a high note in the Peach Bowl, setting a Penn State bowl record with 127 receiving yards, which included a wild 75-yard scamper. He will be a security blanket and much, much more for Allar in what should be his final season in Happy Valley.

Penn State Nittany Lions tight end Tyler Warren runs for a long gain after a catch against Ole Miss in the 2023 Peach Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. / Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

The Offensive Line

The Player You Don't Know Yet: The buzz for interior lineman Cooper Cousins has not stopped since he inked his letter of intent in December. Coaches have consistently said he’s a freshman who doesn’t look like one. Listed at 6-6, 319 pounds on the official roster, Cousins looks every bit of it in person and should compete for playing time this fall at multiple spots. It seems entirely possible he could wind up in a starting spot at some point, too.

The Defensive Line

Can Penn State Win the Big Ten With This Group? Without a doubt. Penn State led the country in rushing defense, tackles for loss and sacks in 2023. Even without its two best pass-rushers, the Lions have plenty waiting for their opportunities. The interior barely changed since putting up those numbers, either. As long as Tom Allen gets anywhere close to what Manny Diaz did as defensive coordinator the past few seasons, the Lions’ defensive line will be just fine.

The Linebackers

The Storyline: Defensive coordinator Tom Allen has to make up for 98 tackles (14.5 for loss) and seven sacks from 2023 with the loss of Curtis Jacobs and switch for Abdul Carter, who still will play some situational linebacker next season. Those two have been near the top of Penn State’s defensive leaderboards since beginning their respective Nittany Lion careers, and it won’t be easy to replace them.

The Secondary

The Player You Don't Know Yet: A.J. Harris’ transfer to Penn State should excite fans. He appeared in just eight games at Georgia as a freshman but had an extremely high recruiting pedigree out of high school, rated as a 5-star by some outlets. His first impression with Penn State was unique, too, after Franklin recruited him in high school. Harris apparently did a ton of his own scouting on the Nittany Lions after they contacted him in the transfer portal, studying up on the coaching staff and their style of play. He had an excited energy about him the first time he spoke to local media, too, and after making seven tackles and a pass breakup in the Blue-White Game, Harris has generated some deserved hype. The only question is whether he can build on a 6-1, 188-pound frame.

Special Teams

The Issues at the Position: At the Blue-White game, all three kickers had opportunities. Ryan Barker received the first reps, converting an extra point and a 28-yard field goal. Sander Sahaydak hit from 30 yards, the only other field goal of the day, while Meyer made an extra point. Still, it’s hard to pin a favorite as Penn State heads into the summer.

Max Ralph is a Penn State senior studying Broadcast Journalism with minors in sports studies and Japanese. He previously covered Penn State football for two years with The Daily Collegian and has reported with the Associated Press and Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Follow him on Twitter (X) @maxralph_ and Instagram @mralph_59.