What's at Stake for Penn State in the Big Ten Championship Game

The Nittany Lions are on the verge of the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff.

A general view of Lucas Oil Stadium, site of the 2024 Big Ten Championship Game between Penn State and Oregon. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

INDIANAPOLIS | Penn State didn't expect to be at Lucas Oil Stadium tonight for the 2024 Big Ten Championship Game. But now that they are, the Nittany Lions can launch a whole new postseason vision with a win over top-ranked Oregon at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Though certainly not an elimination game, the Big Ten championship still has plenty at stake. Here's what Penn State can achieve tonight.

Playing for the No. 1 overall seed

This seemed unthinkable after the Nittany Lions lost to Ohio State in early November. And yet, with a win over Oregon, Penn State has a legitimate shot at the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff.

Here's the scenario: If Penn State wins, and Georgia defeats Texas in the SEC title game, the Nittany Lions likely would get the top seed. If Texas wins, the CFP selection committee still faces a decision. The Longhorns and Nittany Lions were Nos. 2 and 3 in last week's rankings. Penn State would add a win over the nation's No. 1 team, and its last unbeaten, a notable resume point. At minimum, Penn State would earn the No. 2 playoff seed with a win tonight.

What does the No. 1 seed bring? Penn State would get a first-round bye, meaning no home playoff game at Beaver Stadium, and proceed directly to the quarterfinals. Penn State most likely would begin the College Football playoff in the Jan. 1 Rose Bowl as either the No. 1 or No. 2 seed.

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What if Penn State loses the Big Ten title game?

Even if they fall to Oregon, the Nittany Lions are guaranteed a playoff bid and a home game at Beaver Stadium. Their seed would be the question. A competitive Big Ten title game leads to this most likely scenario: The winner gets the 1-2 se.ed, and the loser gets the 5-6 seed, contingent upon the SEC title game.

But the final rankings will be more nuanced. Penn State is positioned for the 5-7 seed as the 11-2 Big Ten runnerup. Since the CFP selection committee consistently has ranked Penn State ahead of Notre Dame, it would require a serious, and potentially divisive, conversation about reseeding those teams. Still, Notre Dame potentially could jump Penn State if Oregon wins decisively. Some national media have insisted on the possibility.

At worse, Penn State will be seeded seventh in the playoff field. But 5-6 is more likely with a close loss.

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How about winning a Big Ten championship?

This week, Penn State players discussed their empty trophy case in the Lasch Football Building, which the program stages as a motivational tool. Trophies matter. Penn State's 2024 team also could add its name to the Beaver Stadium ring of honor, which casts its achivement in concrete.

Penn State has won four Big Ten titles dating to 1994, its last unbeaten season (which ended with its most recent victory over Oregon, in the Rose Bowl). Penn State also won Big Ten titles in 2005 and 2008 (technically shared with Ohio State, which it beat to earn the Rose Bowl bid) and in 2016. The title would be the second for head coach James Franklin, tying him with Ohio State's Ryan Day.

The financial factor for Penn State

Penn State would spin a Big Ten title into a major donor pitch. Happy Valley United, Penn State's official NIL collective, reactivated a major fundraising campaign tied to the postseason. The collective held an event in Indianapolis, released some new merchandise and began preparing for more events around the playoffs.

"This is a monumental moment for Penn State football, and we encourage everyone, whether you’re in Happy Valley, across the state, or anywhere in the Nittany Nation, to come together and help us raise funds that will keep the team’s momentum going for years to come," Jen Ferrang, Happy Valley United's general manager, said in a statement."

A potential milestone for James Franklin

Franklin enters the Big Ten championship game with a 99-40 career record. A win would be his 100th in 11 seasons at Penn State. A win also would be Penn State's first over a top-ranked team since it won 24-21 at Notre Dame in 1990. The Nittany Lions are 0-5 since against No. 1 teams, losing four times to Ohio State (1998, 2006, '07 and '15) and to Alabama in 2010.

The 2024 Big Ten Championship Game kicks off just after 8 p.m. ET on CBS.

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