Why Matt Campbell's Penn State Career Truly Begins in Week 4 vs. Wisconsin

When it comes to Matt Campbell’s tenure at Penn State, the job description is generally as follows: Do what James Franklin did, but do it ever so slightly better.

If Penn State really just wanted to be a program that wins 10+ games every season, it probably could have carried on with Franklin for as long as he wanted to stick around. The results may not have been there absolutely every year, but the growing frustration with the Franklin era was not with a complete inability to win. It was with the inability to win in the biggest moments.

And yes, it is true that Franklin was fired for losing, but the general synopsis of his tenure in Happy Valley still holds true: Franklin won far more often than not, and far more often than not, the losses were in high-profile games. All told, Penn State spent the past decade largely avoiding the inexplicable losses, right up until it crashed headfirst into them against UCLA and Northwestern.

As much as Penn State’s plight in those big games might have become death by a thousand disappointing losses, Franklin’s program still found itself in nationally relevant moments. And in order to get to that point, you have to win all the other smaller moments in between.

Enter Penn State’s clash with Wisconsin this weekend. On paper it’s an interesting game, but — a not insignificant Koby Howard injury aside — things look even to be favorable for Penn State. It’s a good benchmarking moment for a team that is still figuring out what it is and isn’t.

It’s also a benchmarking moment for Campbell and the tone his program wants to set entering Big Ten play.

Perhaps there is an argument to be made that Campbell and a revamped program deserve a bit of patience in this first season. But at the same time, there is a simple truth that these are the sorts of games Franklin won.

In fact, Penn State has won six straight games against Wisconsin. It has won nine of its last 12 against Northwestern. Five of its last six against Michigan State. Eight of its last 10 against Illinois. Thirteen of its last 15 against Maryland. The list goes on and on. Remove Michigan and Ohio State and the record book leans toward the Nittany Lions.

Summed up: Between 2016 and 2024, and excluding the Covid year in 2020, Penn State and Franklin lost three games to unranked teams in 70 contests.

Good vibes last only so long

Penn State Nittany Lions athletic director Pat Kraft (right) speaks with head coach Matt Campbell (left). — Penn State Nittany Lions athletic director Pat Kraft (right) speaks with head coach Matt Campbell (left) following the game against the Marshall Thundering Herd at Beaver Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

So far, Campbell’s first year has been fairly smooth sailing. The recruiting has been fine, but not great, and the on-field product has looked as good as you can expect through three weeks of the season.

A bit of pandering to alumni and former players coupled with a sympathetic view of Paterno has given Campbell a lot of runway to work with. Perhaps the simple fact that Campbell is not Franklin has given him more grace and leeway among fans and donors just excited for a bit of change.

But the truth remains: All the good vibes in the world won’t substitute for wins. They won’t substitute for making it to the big game or the value of New Year’s Six bowl appearances and playoff berths.

The question of whether Penn State should have moved on from Franklin might have been answered. The new question is whether Campbell can raise the program's ceiling. To do that, he first has to protect the floor.

Penn State Nittany Lions head coach Matt Campbell walks on the field following the game against the Buffalo Bulls. — Penn State Nittany Lions head coach Matt Campbell walks on the field following the game against the Buffalo Bulls at Beaver Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

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