All Penn State

Why Penn State Stayed Ahead of Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff Rankings

Warde Manuel, CFP selection committee chair, explained the decision to keep the Nittany Lions above the Fighting Irish.

Daniel Mader

Penn State Nittany Lions defensive end Amin Vanover (15) celebrates with the Governor's Victory Bell after defeating the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Huntington Bank Stadium.
Penn State Nittany Lions defensive end Amin Vanover (15) celebrates with the Governor's Victory Bell after defeating the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Huntington Bank Stadium. / Matt Krohn-Imagn Images
In this story:

Penn State held onto the No. 4 spot in the updated College Football Playoff rankings Tuesday night, the second-to-last edition before selection day Dec. 8. Importantly, the Nittany Lions also remained one spot ahead of Notre Dame in this week's edition of the CFP rankings. As a result, Penn State football (10-1) also held firm as the No. 6 seed in the 12-team bracket and would host No. 11 Indiana in a first-round playoff game at Beaver Stadium if the season ended today.

However, with some important regular-season matchups remaining across college football, plus the looming conference championship games, varying scenarios remain for Penn State. The Hoosiers saw firsthand how much one week can change the rankings, dropping from fifth to 10th after a 38-15 loss to Ohio State on Saturday. So with playoff season officially on the horizon, here’s the breakdown of Penn State’s third consecutive No. 4 ranking by the committee. 

Why was Penn State ranked No. 4?

Penn State’s playoff resume has remained largely unchanged. It includes a ranked win over No. 23 Illinois, plus road wins over talented but unranked teams in West Virginia, USC, Wisconsin and Minnesota. CFP selection committee chair Warde Manuel said earlier in November that a “back and forth” loss to Ohio State, the Nittany Lions’ lone defeat, paired with a solid body of work and an offense including “a dominating force” in tight end Tyler Warren helped warrant their prior No. 6 ranking.

Since then, Penn State moved up two spots and has now commanded the No. 4 position in the rankings behind Oregon, Ohio State and Texas for three weeks. Importantly, a 26-25 win over Minnesota was enough for the committee to keep the Nittany Lions higher than No. 5 Notre Dame (10-1). 

Why did the CFP selection committee keep Penn State above Notre Dame?

The most likely team to jump Penn State was, and will be, Notre Dame. Some thought the Fighting Irish should have done so this week after their big win over then-ranked Army and Penn State's one-point escape from Minnesota.

Manuel explained his group's decision to keep Penn State one spot ahead of Notre Dame.

"Well, there was a lot of discussion about those teams and how they had performed," Manuel said on a conference call with reporters Tuesday night. "Penn State's only loss is to the No. 2 team in the country [Ohio State]. They have a win over No. 23 Illinois. Notre Dame has a win now over No. 20 Texas A&M as of today; Army is not in the rankings. Notre Dame's loss was to Northern Illinois at the beginning of the year, but they won nine straight games in pretty dominant fashion since then.

"So from our standpoint, resumes are pretty close in terms of how we see them, obviously with them ranked 4 and 5. And we will continue — they both have games this week that we will watch. Penn State plays Maryland, I believe, and Notre Dame plays USC. So we'll be watching how they perform, and we will assess when we get together, start assessing when we get together on Monday, to look at what's transpired over the weekend."

What can Penn State control regarding its playoff future?

Ultimately, Penn State has just one guaranteed matchup before the final selection show arrives Dec. 8: its upcoming game against Maryland. If Maryland scores the upset — unlikely based on Penn State’s success over unranked squads this season (9-0) and Maryland’s 1-7 conference record — the Nittany Lions’ home playoff hopes could entirely collapse.

There’s a reason James Franklin always focuses on one opponent at a time. At this point, a playoff appearance could require Penn State to finish 11-1. The Nittany Lions won’t want to be included in the two-loss playoff debates on selection Sunday. 

“I'm literally completely focused on the Terps and the University of Maryland,” Franklin said Monday. “We want an opportunity to compete as many times as we possibly can this year. If that includes a conference championship game, we would be very, very excited about that opportunity. But, again, all we have to do is focus on playing Maryland this week and if we're not focused on that, then a lot of these other things that everybody else wants to talk about, then those things become questionable.”

The hypothetical of a 10-2 record, including a late-season loss to Maryland, could easily damage the committee's opinion on Penn State enough to drop it from the 12-team playoff picture in favor of a current non-playoff team like Clemson, Alabama, or Ole Miss. Recency bias surely plays a role in these rankings, so if the Nittany Lions would end the year with a significant loss, they would either fall to a road seed or miss the playoff entirely.

Under the assumption that doesn’t happen, the only other way for Penn State to significantly impact its playoff outlook would be with a Big Ten Championship berth. That would require both the Nittany Lions taking down Maryland and Ohio State losing to Michigan this weekend. How feasible is that? Ohio State is a 20.5-point favorite, according to DraftKings. 

If Penn State does reach the Big Ten title game and beats Oregon, it would gain a first-round bye, possibly the No. 1 overall seed and a likely second-round spot in the Rose Bowl. If the Nittany Lions make the conference championship and lose, there’s a chance they earn the top at-large bid (No. 5 seed) and a host first-round contest vs. the 12th seed (currently Arizona State). The most likely scenario, though, is Oregon vs. Ohio State in the Big Ten title game, with Penn State then having an upper hand in claiming one of the 6-8 seeds to host a playoff game.

What are Penn State’s postseason possibilities with a win over Maryland?

Tthe Nittany Lions rank behind Ohio State but above Notre Dame and Georgia with limited time before final resumes are submitted. Even assuming the chaos scenario of Penn State in the Big Ten Championship doesn’t materialize, much still could change with the surrounding teams in the bracket before Dec. 8. 

The most likely way the Nittany Lions could fall from the No. 6 seed would stem from a potential Georgia victory over Texas for the SEC title. That would give the Bulldogs the SEC’s first-round bye, while the Longhorns (10-1), who have ranked above the Nittany Lions in all four editions of the CFP rankings, could hold the advantage. 

Even if the committee favors SEC teams over the Big Ten, a potential two-loss gap in record between Penn State and the SEC trio of Alabama (8-3) Ole Miss (8-3) and South Carolina (8-3) is probably too much to overcome. The Nittany Lions would also maintain an advantage over Tennessee and BYU with a win this weekend. As for Indiana, Penn State’s current projected playoff opponent, the Nittany Lions have a clear advantage based on their one-possession loss to the same Buckeyes who beat Indiana by 23.

The complexity of the potential conference championship matchups means a lot remains to be decided in the CFP bracket. Penn State, though, holds a favorable position to host a playoff game as long as it wins on Saturday vs. Maryland, the essential first step in securing the program’s first CFP appearance.

More Penn State Football

A Penn State football tradition: James Franklin's Thanksgiving press conference

Two Penn State players sustained long-term injuries at Minnesota

James Franklin outlines his fix-it list as the College Football Playoff approaches

Daniel Mader, a May 2024 graduate of Penn State, is an Editorial Intern with The Sporting News. As a student journalist with The Daily Collegian, he served as a sports editor and covered Nittany Lions women’s basketball, men’s volleyball and more. He has also covered Penn State football for NBC Sports and the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, with additional work in the Centre Daily Times, Lancaster Online and more. Follow him on X @DanielMader_    or Instagram @dmadersports. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Published |Modified
Daniel Mader
DANIEL MADER

Daniel Mader, a May 2024 graduate of Penn State, is an Editorial Intern with The Sporting News. As a student journalist with The Daily Collegian, he served as a sports editor and covered Nittany Lions women’s basketball, men’s volleyball and more. He has also covered Penn State football for NBC Sports and the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, with additional work in the Centre Daily Times, Lancaster Online and more. Follow him on X @DanielMader_, or Instagram @dmadersports.

Home/Football