Is the Penn State-Ohio State Game a Must-Win for the Nittany Lions?

Penn State has a huge opportunity Saturday against the Buckeyes. But the postseason doesn't hinge on a win.

Penn State coach James Franklin shakes hands with Ohio State coach Ryan Day after their 2022 game at Beaver Stadium. The Buckeyes won 41-33. / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK

A few years ago I took a walk around campus with Penn State coach James Franklin for a story. We talked about a lot of different things over the next hour, the contents of which have since been sinking deeper into the bottomless pit that is the Internet. But nearing the end of that conversation, we discussed the possibility of an expanded College Football Playoff.

At that point, an expanded playoff was simply one of many rumors floating around in the world, far from the established reality that it is now. It seemed to be coming, but nobody knew when or what it might look like.

As we parted ways and Franklin headed toward the Lasch Building, I mentioned how much easier his life might be in a world where Penn State didn't absolutely have to beat Ohio State, or others, to make the postseason.

Franklin looked at me like I had grown a third eye.

And that kind of summarizes the situation Penn State finds itself in this weekend. The Nittany Lions are without question interested in beating Ohio State on Saturday at Beaver Stadium. That will never change. You don’t end up with Franklin’s job by circling acceptable losses on your calendar.

And of course, winning would open the door to bigger things. A victory over Ohio State would set up a straightforward path to likely facing Oregon for the Big Ten championship. In turn, Penn State would be well positioned for a high seed in the playoffs, a home game or maybe even a first-round bye. It would be as favorable a path to the national-title game as can exist in this format.

But Penn State also doesn’t have to win Saturday against Ohio State.

That’s the new world now. Penn State is sitting at 7-0, hosting a one-loss Ohio State team that needs to win more than the Nittany Lions do. A Penn State loss still would leave the program a reasonable path to the playoffs with the hardest games on the schedule behind it. An Ohio State loss might knock the Buckeyes out of the playoff picture altogether. In a way, that might be even bigger for Penn State than the win itself.

Because it has been a long time since the Nittany Lions had a good chance to knock Ohio State down a few pegs. The 2017, 2018 and 2019 games in particular were moments Penn State could have used to put up a handful of wins over Ohio State and reorder the hierarchy in the conference. Those remain some of the biggest missed opportunities in the program’s history.

Which brings us back to Saturday.

You would be hard-pressed to say Ohio State coach Ryan Day hasn’t found success in his five full seasons with the Buckeyes. But between bowl losses and struggles against Michigan, Day isn’t exactly avoiding criticism, either. Fan expectations might be a flawed metric to judge success, but there’s an undeniable reality that Day’s cache among the Buckeye fan base isn’t exactly overflowing.

Of course, fans don’t hire or fire coaches, but a loss on Saturday would give Ohio State a two-loss season in four consecutive years for the first time since the early 90s. Even now, Ohio State’s run of three straight seasons with two losses is something that last happened in 2007-2009. Whether that’s enough to send Day packing is unknown, but it is safe to say that Penn State having a small hand in slowly pushing Ohio State toward an uncertain future is a big win in its own right.

So no, Penn State doesn’t have to win. It can do much of what it wants to this season even in defeat. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t a lot at stake. Both for this season and beyond.

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Ben Jones has been covering Penn State athletics for 13 years, having been to countless home and road games for Nittany Lion sporting events spanning from the Rose Bowl to the NCAA Tournament. He's also the author of the book Happy Valley Hockey. You can read his work at https://benjonesonpennstate.substack.com and follow him on X (Twitter) at Ben_Jones88